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Old 05-11-2021, 08:27 PM   #346
paulbenny
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LUKAS - WHO I LIKE A LOT

Wayne Lukas, who trains Timber Country and Thunder Gulch, two leading candidates for the Kentucky Derby, has been suspended for 60 days by New York racing authorities.
The New York State Racing and Wagering Board announced the suspension Friday, more than five months after the Lukas-trained Flanders tested positive for a therapeutic drug after winning the Sept. 17 Matron Stakes at Belmont Park.
The suspension, which would be enforced by other states under racing’s reciprocity rule, runs March 15-May 13. New York authorities said Lukas has 10 days to appeal, and that the suspension would be reduced to 45 days if he does not.




There were rumors about Whitley. Rumors. This is real about Lukas, who to me is still cranking 26 years later. Why are we not resurfacing things about others. This has been going on a long time.


When people do not like something, they lose their objectivity. I worked as a consultant to big companies and the government and am a fact guy.


The facts will determine what happened with BB. Lets not forget the other people out there who did not finish in the top 5. Or were out of the money on the other races.



Again, disqualify him but do not crucify him.
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Old 05-11-2021, 08:29 PM   #347
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Baffert has been giving his horses PEDs for many, many years. His horses don't win like they do because of pain numbing. All the evidence is there both this year and historically on Baffert. The overage is a false positive similar to what was in the Servis/Navarro report.

Consider this stat. In the last 28 years of the Kentucky Derby, there have been 4 wire to wire winners and 16 horses who ran in the exacta that were setting the pace or sitting right on it (2nd/3rd).

The wire to wire winners:
Bob Baffert 3
Jason Servis 1

The exacta runners who were on the pace:
Bob Baffert 7
9 other trainers 1

Considering how these PEDs work (increasing speed, and more importantly, stamina), Baffert runners all have speed and never get tired no matter the pace scenario. It's very simple stuff, in my opinion. Show me a "supertrainer" who wins their races off the pace. Won't find it. They all go to the front and fail to fatigue at the normal rate.

All of this other mickey mouse is a bunch of noise that is coincidental to the actual problem.
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Old 05-11-2021, 08:41 PM   #348
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Originally Posted by Track Phantom View Post
Baffert has been giving his horses PEDs for many, many years. His horses don't win like they do because of pain numbing. All the evidence is there both this year and historically on Baffert. The overage is a false positive similar to what was in the Servis/Navarro report.

Consider this stat. In the last 28 years of the Kentucky Derby, there have been 4 wire to wire winners and 16 horses who ran in the exacta that were setting the pace or sitting right on it (2nd/3rd).

The wire to wire winners:
Bob Baffert 3
Jason Servis 1

The exacta runners who were on the pace:
Bob Baffert 7
9 other trainers 1

Considering how these PEDs work (increasing speed, and more importantly, stamina), Baffert runners all have speed and never get tired no matter the pace scenario. It's very simple stuff, in my opinion. Show me a "supertrainer" who wins their races off the pace. Won't find it. They all go to the front and fail to fatigue at the normal rate.

All of this other mickey mouse is a bunch of noise that is coincidental to the actual problem.
Definitely, the way both Authentic and Medina Spirit won raises some concerns. In both cases, they seemingly set fast paces and then ran much faster in the stretch than you would expect, when they should have gotten tired. Authentic was headed by Tiz the Law, a very good racehorse, and turned him back. Medina Spirit had 3 horses move alongside and wouldn't let any of them by.

Now maybe this is just Baffert's great skill in putting stamina into his horses before a 1 1/4 mile race, but....
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Old 05-11-2021, 08:43 PM   #349
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Now maybe this is just Baffert's great skill in putting stamina into his horses before a 1 1/4 mile race, but....
Occam's Razor
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Old 05-11-2021, 08:49 PM   #350
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Definitely, the way both Authentic and Medina Spirit won raises some concerns. In both cases, they seemingly set fast paces and then ran much faster in the stretch than you would expect, when they should have gotten tired. Authentic was headed by Tiz the Law, a very good racehorse, and turned him back. Medina Spirit had 3 horses move alongside and wouldn't let any of them by.

Now maybe this is just Baffert's great skill in putting stamina into his horses before a 1 1/4 mile race, but....
This is what Baffert, Diodoro, Servis, Navarro have been doing for years. I would throw Cox and Broberg in there as well. There are a few from Florida as well. All the 30 percent super trainers have somehow defied Mother Nature and gotten speed horses to not stop…

Anyone who handicaps on a daily basis sees it every single day on every single racetrack in America.
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Old 05-11-2021, 08:53 PM   #351
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WORN OUT GOING TO COOK LINGUINI

This is getting a little ridiculous. If there are facts, lets discuss them in terms of performance enhancing drugs, vs medications to maintain soundness. Also, you are now speculating on wire to wire horses. Does this mean Spend a Buck should be looked at in the old days.


The point is, we can always speculate and use terms without definitions to argue our point.


My simple fact based view assuming 1 thing, the split sample comes back positive is:


He broke the rule the threshold and should not be allowed to be the winner.


Beyond that, people have to look within themselves, to determine why they deviate from facts, not Baffert but us.


The facts say it was in his system. If you really want to now classify this as a PED then we are way off base. Moreover, there are a lot of incompetent people in all walks of lives. BB is the man in charge, and maybe just maybe he has some people around him who are not as good as one would expect. Regardless, have a good night.
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Old 05-11-2021, 09:02 PM   #352
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This is getting a little ridiculous. If there are facts, lets discuss them in terms of performance enhancing drugs, vs medications to maintain soundness. Also, you are now speculating on wire to wire horses. Does this mean Spend a Buck should be looked at in the old days.
Spend a Buck was 5 lengths clear for most of that race. He was never challenged. Indeed, the horse who was supposed to challenge him on the lead, Eternal Prince, didn't break. He was all alone. (He was also Spend a Buck, delivering one of the best Derby performances of my lifetime.)

That's far different from a leader having a good horse or horses come alongside at the top at the stretch, looking like he/they are going to go on by, and the leader than pull away again.

Apples and oranges.
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Old 05-11-2021, 09:10 PM   #353
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"My vet recommended this"

So Baffert's vet supposedly recommended this cream (one which we have used with our dogs to deal with yeast infections in the ears - ears=Oto in Otomax) to treat the skin rash.

Unless I've missed it by not clicking on every link that exists surrounding this story, what I'd like is a little journalism on what's NORMALLY prescribed by racing vets for a skin fungus. Medina Spirit's definitely not the only one who's had this. I know I've seen conditions like what the pictures show once or twice on horses in my old trainers' barns. I'm sure it's not the first one Bob's had in all his years either. But suddenly - Otomax? With the "no amount allowed in raceday testing" Betamethasone?
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Old 05-11-2021, 09:34 PM   #354
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https://pubchem.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/compound/Betamethasone




I find it mind boggling that people do not read details, and with that as a backdrop, they do not test all horses only the top 5 in the Derby.



People need to do research on their own. What is a "blocker". I think that is a very sketchy non-detailed speculative comment.
And you'd be wrong.
BTW:
Congratulations on your exciting life wandering in and out of a major race track and your relationship with a trainer that started out harshly and took a turn for the better.
And I must admit I'm a little envious of your standing as a "fact guy" who gave the government and big companies consulting expertise.
Quite the resume........well done sir.
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Old 05-11-2021, 09:40 PM   #355
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So Baffert's vet supposedly recommended this cream (one which we have used with our dogs to deal with yeast infections in the ears - ears=Oto in Otomax) to treat the skin rash.

Unless I've missed it by not clicking on every link that exists surrounding this story, what I'd like is a little journalism on what's NORMALLY prescribed by racing vets for a skin fungus. Medina Spirit's definitely not the only one who's had this. I know I've seen conditions like what the pictures show once or twice on horses in my old trainers' barns. I'm sure it's not the first one Bob's had in all his years either. But suddenly - Otomax? With the "no amount allowed in raceday testing" Betamethasone?
Great question!
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Old 05-11-2021, 09:47 PM   #356
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And so it begins...

https://www.drf.com/news/spendthrift...-bafferts-barn
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Old 05-11-2021, 10:01 PM   #357
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Thanks, Andy. It's always good to go back, years ago, to this two part series. Even reading the 2014 statement from CHRB's Rick Arthur, "There's something wrong here."

Truer words never spoken. The exact same words spoken by Baffert this morning. ......Some things never change and this is the sport's biggest problem. It is heartbreaking!!!

Hope you, gentlemen, and your families are all doing well!! Take good care.

g
Bump.....
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Old 05-11-2021, 10:02 PM   #358
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if baffert had any class, he would atleast try to convince the connections to not run this horse in the race. But he has none. Can not say i am surprised that hes running the horse
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Old 05-11-2021, 10:18 PM   #359
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Amazing how many people I see already picking this horse to win the race.

if he aint doped how is he winning?
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Old 05-11-2021, 11:03 PM   #360
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Off left front? That seems to be the consensus


Last edited by Andy Asaro; 05-11-2021 at 11:09 PM.
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