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Old 04-28-2021, 05:14 PM   #31
sbcaris
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lose ground

vinnie: hot rod charlie did not lose ground, he led the entire trip but fails to qualify because the la derby is Not a big 5 prep

midnight bourbon also ran in the la derby which is NOT a big 5 prep.Like the king ran on synthetic at turfway park Not a big 5 prep.

O besos also ran fast enough but the la derby is not a big 5 prep.

two rules make up this angle must be a big 5 prep
horse must not lose 2 lengths or more from the 6 furlong call to the finish of the big 5 prep.
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Old 04-28-2021, 05:15 PM   #32
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Something seems off on Louisiana. The figure folks certainly disagree. It was a solid race per Beyer and TimeformUS yet The Brisnet LP was 90* (3/16th, but iffy for a 9F event). Equibase was less than steller at 99 and no horse made the top 6 on TG. Maybe the quality is better there this year but three horses in the top six or seven seems a bit of a stretch, no pun intended.
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Old 04-28-2021, 05:33 PM   #33
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Something seems off on Louisiana. The figure folks certainly disagree. It was a solid race per Beyer and TimeformUS yet The Brisnet LP was 90* (3/16th, but iffy for a 9F event). Equibase was less than steller at 99 and no horse made the top 6 on TG. Maybe the quality is better there this year but three horses in the top six or seven seems a bit of a stretch, no pun intended.
That is why I brought it up, I don't really trust that race due to a lack of data.
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Old 04-28-2021, 06:59 PM   #34
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F2-I agree with your thoughts on the Louisiana Derby as it is odd, however you did mention the TG numbers and a top 6. I know a little about them but not much. I thought that they provide a forward movement and a regression pattern but itís somewhat subjective and I didnít think they provided their top horses. Iíd you have time...maybe you can provide clarification for me
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Old 04-28-2021, 07:21 PM   #35
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...however you did mention the TG numbers and a top 6. I know a little about them but not much. I thought that they provide a forward movement and a regression pattern but it’s somewhat subjective and I didn’t think they provided their top horses. I’d you have time...maybe you can provide clarification for me
A TG figure is a combination of race time, beaten lengths, ground lost/saved. weight, and perhaps even the wind. Then, like the other figure makers, adjust for the variant. The forward movement/regression you speak of is merely a pattern the sheets players look for (e.g. did the horse double top?). A horse like Hot Rod Charlie has basically ran the same TG figure since the Breeder's Cup. I'm not banking on him suddenly upping his game this weekend. Hidden Agenda might be sitting on a decent pop but would still need to improve by a point or more to beat an even performing Essential Quality. Rock would have to improve even more but appears close enough to be capable.

The Brisnet, Beyer, and TimeformUS figures don't account for the trip (wide, inside, golden rail, whatever). Looking at different sources can sometimes give a better feel of things. Just gotta be careful falling into the confirmation bias.
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Old 04-29-2021, 11:32 AM   #36
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Thanks for the info. It was a great explanation and exactly what I was looking for. What I still donít understand are two examples: HRC and RYW. In the case of HRC: he stretched out to a 1 3/16, ran fast fractions in doing so, wired the field and looked like he had something left. How could his numbers remain the same, yet run almost the derby distance fairly fast in wire to wire fashion and it not move the needle on the TG figure? In the case of RYW, his numbers are the best of all, ran really fast fractions and maintained them well, yet he doesnít seem to have a high TG number. All the other figure say he was the fastest. This is just out of curiosity and in no way Iím making a case for them (even though I do like them both). My main plays right now are Known Agenda and Highly Motivated but the two noted above Iíll obviously be using as well underneath.
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Old 04-29-2021, 11:43 AM   #37
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late pace not good

rock your world ran fast early and slow late. his brisket late pace figure is a bad 91.

hot rod charlie has a late pace figure of 90. they could win but statistically you need a 95 or better in your last race to win the roses. Somehow that is part of the thorough graph sheet numbers
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Old 04-29-2021, 11:55 AM   #38
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rock your world ran fast early and slow late. his brisket late pace figure is a bad 91.

hot rod charlie has a late pace figure of 90. they could win but statistically you need a 95 or better in your last race to win the roses. Somehow that is part of the thorough graph sheet numbers
As someone who studies a lot of data and stats, I love the information you’ve been providing. Much appreciated.

I’m not worried about RYWs LP because of how fast that race was early. And my eyes tell me the horse has a lot of room to improve especially if he can get better at switching leads. He also looked like he could’ve gone around again. I suspect with a post toward the outside RYW won’t be running as fast early. Stalking 2 or 3 wide just off the pace is the ideal trip for him IMO.

I liked how you mentioned the last 3/8 furlong angle fitting 67 percent of the winners even though they only made up 33 percent of the starters.

I keep hearing about the didnt race as a 2 year old knock on RYW and while I think it’s a concern I think it’s overblown. Reality is not a lot of horses have attempted that feat and there are so many variables that go into a horse race
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Old 04-29-2021, 11:57 AM   #39
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What I still don’t understand are two examples: HRC and RYW. In the case of HRC: he stretched out to a 1 3/16, ran fast fractions in doing so, wired the field and looked like he had something left. How could his numbers remain the same, yet run almost the derby distance fairly fast in wire to wire fashion and it not move the needle on the TG figure?

In the case of RYW, his numbers are the best of all, ran really fast fractions and maintained them well, yet he doesn’t seem to have a high TG number. All the other figure say he was the fastest. This is just out of curiosity and in no way I’m making a case for them (even though I do like them both). My main plays right now are Known Agenda and Highly Motivated but the two noted above I’ll obviously be using as well underneath.
The Louisiana Derby splits were not particularly fast. In fact, they were faster for the BC Juvenile at Keeneland and RB Lewis at SA. Add in what seemed like a souped-up track at FG and it's possible some figures deceive. As for the TG figures, HRC was able to take the shortest way around the track. A horse winning while running outside has to cover more ground and therefore would yield a stronger figure. It's the reason you see staggered lanes in Olympic track. RYW also took the shortest path and while he looked great, he was no Justify out there. His TimeformUS and BSF are best however TG and Equibase provide some caution. He really does have to improve to win here. Certainly possible.
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Old 04-29-2021, 12:33 PM   #40
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Known Agenda has Buckpasser in the X line but not in tail female.

Highly motivated also has Buckpasser in the X line but not in tail female.

Essential Quality does not carry Buckpasser in the X but does have the strong conduit mare, Doxa, in tail female.

These above three look strongest in my opinion so far.
The "x" is purely theoretical. I wrote to an equine geneticist at the vet school at Texas A & M and he said it had to basis in fact
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Old 04-29-2021, 03:43 PM   #41
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based on facts

my book Analyzing the Triple Crown is free for anyone interested. just type my name stanley caris and type Analyzing the Triple Crown and you can download it for free. You will find the facts about Buckpasser in the X in all three triple crown races. These are stunning facts illustrating the strength of Buckpassers X in all three races of the Triple Crown.
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Old 04-29-2021, 03:54 PM   #42
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large heart

The only thing I was interested in was if Buckpasser was in the X passing position and not if the large heart trait was being transmitted. The only thing proven to date is that no single gene on the X develops a large heart in horses.

Look at the facts about the X line of Buckpasser in my book and you will conclude that the facts show the strength of having him in that position.
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Old 04-29-2021, 05:51 PM   #43
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Is Helium not listed in CJ's latest sheet, or am I going blind?
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Old 04-29-2021, 06:19 PM   #44
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Is Helium not listed in CJ's latest sheet, or am I going blind?
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I lied, got to it tonight, here you go.

I'll be honest, I'm wary of the Louisiana Derby. I did the best I could but that 1 3/16 distance is new at the Fair Grounds. They've only run it twice, the same race last year and this year. But, they used different run ups so there really wasn't any kind of baseline to judge the last fraction. On top of that, I'm obviously converting it to match the 1 1/8 races as well, so more noise thrown in.

There were two horses this year that don't show up because they haven't run 1 1/8. Helium hasn't been seen since winning the Tampa Derby at 1 1/16 and King Fury won the Lexington at 1 1/16. I have found those final fractions don't project well to longer distances.
See bolded above.
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Old 04-29-2021, 09:52 PM   #45
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Spreadsheet with final fractions, etc??

Does anyone know if this spreadsheet exists this year? It was super useful last year with all of the data in one place.

I found this in last year's thread from PowerUpPaynter's post on the thread dealing with the final 3/8ths topic.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...gid=2083757501
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