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Old 04-27-2021, 10:13 PM   #16
BlueChip@DRF
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But isn't it like more than 2 furlongs until the first turn - 30 seconds, give or take? It's not like the turn is right there a few steps out of the gate.
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Old 04-27-2021, 10:27 PM   #17
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But isn't it like more than 2 furlongs until the first turn - 30 seconds, give or take? It's not like the turn is right there a few steps out of the gate.
I was talking about right out of the gate. In the vid you posted of last years race, it looks like the 3 and everyone outside of him immediately start coming in. If the 2 broke at all, looks like him & the jock would had to have huge balls to cram up in there on the rail. Then imagine if the 1 was there. Am I looking more into it than I should?
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Old 04-28-2021, 08:43 AM   #18
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I would count the 2020 Derby as the only sample since they started with the new 20-horse gate at Churchill.
they had a 1 1/4 race yesterday or the day before , race 5 maiden, check it out
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Old 04-28-2021, 09:20 AM   #19
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1 post is bad

In the 5th race take a look at the head on view at churchill downs tuesday. they left the 1 post empty for a reason. IT IS STILL THE WORST POSITION, ESPECIALLY FOR A CLOSER. IF all 20 still run, known agenda, looks to get the worst of it. if one more is scratched, his chances improve somewhat.
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Old 04-28-2021, 09:48 AM   #20
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Maybe I throw an extra horse in my trifecta otherwise no changes to the top selections. I talked myself out of I'll Have Another because of the 19 hole then talked myself out of Authentic wiring the field because of his outside draw. I didn't play Lookin' at Lee underneath Always Dreaming because of the rail. I got more lucky than good he was covered in the Pool 4 All Others so I still collected the $10 exacta at something like 93-1. I will no longer let the draw strongly influence my wagers in this event. It's possible the rail is a blessing in disguise here. We shall see. He will have about a one second head start from the Rock by default. I planned on using two others with him on top anyway. If he gets plunked then I'm still in the race. If he wins then get paid better.
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Old 04-28-2021, 06:44 PM   #21
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Maybe I throw an extra horse in my trifecta otherwise no changes to the top selections. I talked myself out of I'll Have Another because of the 19 hole then talked myself out of Authentic wiring the field because of his outside draw. I didn't play Lookin' at Lee underneath Always Dreaming because of the rail. I got more lucky than good he was covered in the Pool 4 All Others so I still collected the $10 exacta at something like 93-1. I will no longer let the draw strongly influence my wagers in this event. It's possible the rail is a blessing in disguise here. We shall see. He will have about a one second head start from the Rock by default. I planned on using two others with him on top anyway. If he gets plunked then I'm still in the race. If he wins then get paid better.
Nice way to look at it. Thanks for talking me back on him
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Old 04-28-2021, 09:08 PM   #22
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It's not the same old gate plus he's got some slugs to his right. If that slug Lookin at Lee can hit the place pool from the rail then this guy sure as hell can. I'd bet KA in the hole before HM needing to outrun speed to his inside from the hole. Kind of forces him to be somewhat forwardly placed which is where you needed to be the past seven years.
Thank you for the laugh hahaha
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Old 04-29-2021, 12:56 AM   #23
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8 horses have won from that post and there’s a new gate to eliminate the bias against it, it shouldn’t be a factor because these aren’t quarterhorses
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Old 04-29-2021, 10:51 AM   #24
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not ideal

how come after pletcher drew post 1 for KNOWN AGENDA and was asked about his thoughts on that post said that its NOT IDEAL but we will have to work out a trip.
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Old 04-29-2021, 11:21 AM   #25
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how come after pletcher drew post 1 for KNOWN AGENDA and was asked about his thoughts on that post said that its NOT IDEAL but we will have to work out a trip.
Always a risk of getting pinned inside. His last two wins were 3-4 wide passing. What Pletcher wants to avoid is this: Watch the 2016 Derby replay and keep an eye on Exaggerator with the rider in green. He got pinned inside resulting in his late kick being delayed. I'm convinced if he gets loose earlier he wins. You can see him stuck on the rail then squeeze a hole at the 1:36 mark in video. It should be noted he drew what was a favorable 11 hole. Every pilot has to work out a trip regardless of post. Irad knows what he's doing.
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Old 04-29-2021, 04:12 PM   #26
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i don't know how the rail will play out for the horse but it shouldn't be as bad as before.

can't use them all i won't be using him. just don't like the running style in relation to where he'll be on the track with all the horses wanting position outside of him.

he's also pretty low odds wise and comes off a golden trip winning the fla derby, running down soupy, who many aren't giving a sniff even though the horse went really well that race.
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Old 04-29-2021, 05:34 PM   #27
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running down soupy, who many aren't giving a sniff even though the horse went really well that race.
Maximum Security beat, wait for it, the maiden Bodexpress
Nyquist beat, wait for it, the great nw2 Majesto.
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