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Old 04-16-2021, 10:11 PM   #61
taxicab
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Isn't Flavien Prat on Hot Rod Charlie?
https://www.paulickreport.com/news/t...t-rod-charlie/
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Old 04-16-2021, 11:25 PM   #62
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Your right . My Bad. When I saw the Rock your World thread My brain froze. That’s why I can’t pick winners.
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Old 04-17-2021, 11:42 PM   #63
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Rispoli kicked to the curb....


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Old 04-18-2021, 01:16 AM   #64
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The good news is that he is slow early. Does not matter who is riding him.
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Old 04-18-2021, 01:44 AM   #65
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I think the lasix rule is a cause of this.
I think your right. I also think the points system has change the race as well, why eles has the fav has come in first every year since. If or when a horse of greater that 10: wins, the payouts will be huge.
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Old 04-18-2021, 08:39 AM   #66
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I think your right. I also think the points system has change the race as well, why eles has the fav has come in first every year since. If or when a horse of greater that 10: wins, the payouts will be huge.
opps, fav didn't win last year, i drew a line though it.
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Old 04-18-2021, 11:00 AM   #67
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opps, fav didn't win last year, i drew a line though it.
He was the third betting choice and not far from the second. All the competing speed scratched out. I think Tiz beats him handily if ran in May. Yes, line through it.

Rock kind of in same boat. The speed is defecting. Hard to leave off a ticket, especially is he draws a good post.
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Old 04-21-2021, 07:48 PM   #68
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Mastery was so good. Wish we coulda saw the best of him.
He was, but that's a strange comment in a post with two horses, the second of which was arguably the best horse of the last 15 years.
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Old 04-24-2021, 06:52 AM   #69
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He passes the eyes test 100%. Im not gonna over think this one. I think this crop blows thus far without Life Is Good.... He might not fit all the angles but this year I dont think you gotta.

I know the weak crop is very cliché, however i havent used it in years... These horses arent very good AT THIS POINT. The Florida circuit was bad, The Louisiana circuit was bad. NY was pathetic, Arkansas was underwhelming. And it reflects in the PPs....

Essential Quality is good and wouldn't surprise me if he won one bit... But since i already got him in an october futures bet. im going with Rock Your World heavy handed and if the favorite wins I still win pretty good.

This is the worst Derby field since Sea Hero won in 93'
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Old 04-24-2021, 11:19 AM   #70
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Rock your world

I’d be careful about reading too much into this briS LP figure. The horse ran once on dirt. Don’t make judgments on an n of 1. This horse hasn’t peaked yet. That race was pretty fast early if I remember correctly and he looked like he wanted to go around again
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Old 04-24-2021, 11:45 AM   #71
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The 2 3/4 TG figure with an easy trip worries me more than the Bris LP. He can certainly improve from that number but there are five other horses posting better TG figures and several more knocking at the door. I struggle to make that kind of improvement play for the Derby.
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Old 04-24-2021, 11:50 AM   #72
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The 2 3/4 TG figure with an easy trip worries me more than the Bris LP. He can certainly improve from that number but there are five other horses posting better TG figures and several more knocking at the door. I struggle to make that kind of improvement play for the Derby.
And again I’d argue n of 1 with other factors. Horse is going to be making his 4th career start and 2nd on dirt.

There’s lots of room for improvement with this horse, specifically when it comes to lead switching. He hasn’t put it all together yet and he’s still probably better than atleast 80 percent of the field right now.

I’m not saying these arguments are wrong. Just pointing out that there’s little to go off of
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Old 04-24-2021, 11:56 AM   #73
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The 2 3/4 TG figure with an easy trip worries me more than the Bris LP. He can certainly improve from that number but there are five other horses posting better TG figures and several more knocking at the door. I struggle to make that kind of improvement play for the Derby.
What I find interesting is he's a little slow on sheets because he was on the inside the whole race, but he has the only triple digit Beyer (100) and his 124 TimeformUS figure towers over the field.
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Old 04-24-2021, 05:13 PM   #74
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What I find interesting is he's a little slow on sheets because he was on the inside the whole race, but he has the only triple digit Beyer (100) and his 124 TimeformUS figure towers over the field.
Indeed, the pace was solid and he pulled it. “Towers over” is subjective but the TimeformUS figure is indeed the best of the lot. It’s worth noting the highest last out BSF horse has not fared well wearing Roses the past couple decades. For every Justify there’s about 8 others that failed to repeat. That said, about 90% of winners had a last out BSF of 95+ and/or Brisnet 100+. Some years ago I also noted every winner had a top 8 BSF and this included Giacomo and MTB bombers. I have not checked that angle in a while but doubt that has failed since with all the chalks winning lately.
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Old 04-24-2021, 05:15 PM   #75
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i won't be surprised if the horse is the favorite or co favorite.

horse is a must use
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