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Old 11-04-2020, 06:01 PM   #46
Spalding No!
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Looks like I got my 6/1 on Art Collector! at least on the ML. But I think he'll be more like 9/5.

Knicks Go as the 2nd choice? Ok, he could be the next Willis Reed or Earl the Pearl. The book does say that on turf, class is king, on dirt speed is king, but throw out is 2-yr-old campaign and he's not fared very well in graded stakes. He'll need an uncontested lead and that ain't happening.
Now give me 12-1 and I'm interested.
Interestingly enough, the 2 horses with the best performances in a 2020 Grade 1 two-turn dirt race this year are 15/1 and 20/1 respectively.

Sharp Samurai got within 3 lengths of a loose-on-the-lead Maximum Security in the Pacific Classic, beating Midcourt (who I thought was going to run in the Classic).

Rushie was along for third and within 1.5 lengths of subsequent KY Derby winner Authentic in the SA Derby.

The former hasn't won a race in two years though and the latter got browbeat by Art Collector in his next start.

What a good race! It's going to tell us a lot...

...about what, I have no idea...
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Old 11-04-2020, 06:55 PM   #47
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I may be a crazy person, but I may try to get Mr. Money into the trifecta in the dirt Mile.

At his best, he wasn’t that far off the best 3yos last year.

His first race back this year was bad, but then he showed some signs of life in his next start. I thought he was poorly spotted in the sprint next out. Then in his next race he was repeatedly rank. The race was a total toss. I felt he was ready for a better performance in the Ack Ack and caught him at 6.40-1. The thing is, I think he may have been even better that day than it looks. He was close up on the rail in a race that fell apart, on a day I thought the rail was not the best path, especially through the stretch, yet he got up.

He’s probably at or close to his best best right now.

Unfortunately, that’s probably not nearly good enough to win without a big new top, but he was 3 last year. It may not be totally impossible he has a new top in him. If not, maybe he can sneak into the exacta or trifecta at 20-1 (a more reasonable possibility). He could add some value in a race where he is likely to be totally dismissed based on just a surface view of his races this year.

Maybe I’m a crazy person fishing for a price with an overmatched horse that I scored with last time. But he will be on a few of my tickets even if I key in another direction.
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Old 11-04-2020, 07:29 PM   #48
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Mr. Money has certainly burnt a lot of mine. After those four straight wins last year followed by a game second in the G1 PA derby, he folded when he hit the olders. But a nice win in the AckAck and he is tearing it up in the morning.

I like the fact that JJ is aboard Rushie. Pirate's Punch is another interesting 20-1. It's wide open.
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Old 11-04-2020, 07:47 PM   #49
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I may be a crazy person, but I may try to get Mr. Money into the trifecta in the dirt Mile.

At his best, he wasn’t that far off the best 3yos last year.

His first race back this year was bad, but then he showed some signs of life in his next start. I thought he was poorly spotted in the sprint next out. Then in his next race he was repeatedly rank. The race was a total toss. I felt he was ready for a better performance in the Ack Ack and caught him at 6.40-1. The thing is, I think he may have been even better that day than it looks. He was close up on the rail in a race that fell apart, on a day I thought the rail was not the best path, especially through the stretch, yet he got up.

He’s probably at or close to his best best right now.

Unfortunately, that’s probably not nearly good enough to win without a big new top, but he was 3 last year. It may not be totally impossible he has a new top in him. If not, maybe he can sneak into the exacta or trifecta at 20-1 (a more reasonable possibility). He could add some value in a race where he is likely to be totally dismissed based on just a surface view of his races this year.

Maybe I’m a crazy person fishing for a price with an overmatched horse that I scored with last time. But he will be on a few of my tickets even if I key in another direction.
Looks like a horse that doesn't handle a fast pace, especially when parked wide, mostly because his rider insists on making a move into the teeth of said fast pace.

His 3yo win streak was replete with slowly run races before he came back down to earth like a lead ballon when chasing a fast pace in last year's Undercard Mile. More of the same this year in the Blame and that loaded allowance sprint (that featured Sprint contender CZ Rocket and MG1placed True Timber).

Note in his 2 wins over this trip at Churchill (Ack Ack, Pat Day--both with fast paces) he was bottled up inside of horses and basically his rider was forced to wait until the head of the stretch to make his move.

Has to be ridden correctly but retains the same jock who probably hasn't figured it out. However, did draw in the middle of the field so he may get stuck early in a pocket again, which will be a good thing so long as he has running room in the late stages.
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Old 11-04-2020, 10:58 PM   #50
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Old 11-07-2020, 06:59 AM   #51
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so I'll give A.C. the kiss of death and all of ya'll can breathe easier...he's MY pick...
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Old 11-07-2020, 08:53 AM   #52
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so I'll give A.C. the kiss of death and all of ya'll can breathe easier...he's MY pick...
I'd probably make AC my top pick in here, maybe a little begrudgingly. He was my pick in the Preakness and failed, but this distance and the track itself he might be better suited for. Plus he should be able to make an early run on whoever sets the pace (Knicks Go? Pirate?) from the inside.


good luck!!
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Old 11-07-2020, 09:24 AM   #53
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I'm with you Sammie. I'll take AC all day, as long as he's a fair price.

It will be interesting to see how many bite on Go Knicks. As the second ML fav, he can't be the wise guy pick anymore. He'll certainly guarantee an honest pace (unless Rosario tries the hold-up, which would kill any chance he has)- when the pace collapses, and I believe it will, I'm looking at Owendale to pick up the pieces. His last three races have been a crawl fest (48/112, 49/112 & 48/1.11) , but the race before that(The Blame) he won after 45/1.09. Mr Freeze, Rushie & Pirate's Punch, at the right prices, are also interesting.
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Old 11-07-2020, 10:31 AM   #54
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I'm looking at Owendale to pick up the pieces. His last three races have been a crawl fest (48/112, 49/112 & 48/1.11) , but the race before that(The Blame) he won after 45/1.09. Mr Freeze, Rushie & Pirate's Punch, at the right prices, are also interesting.
I like Owendale also. He is a one run horse and was forced into close pace situations his last two. Third off of a layoff and with the turn back, he should be fit.

One of his best races to date was last years Lexington at Keeneland when he made a huge move on the far turn to break open the race. That was at a mile and a sixteenth. His post position is troubling and that might be his undoing, hopefully Geroux can tuck in behind the first and second flight. I was hoping for 10-1, but the way Cox is going he will probably be lower than that unless Knicks Go takes most of that money. I like him with Mr. Freeze and Art Collector, all have run nice races in the past at Keeneland.

I saw Cox was wearing an Owendale BC Dirt Mile jacket the other day too. A good sign!
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Old 11-07-2020, 12:39 PM   #55
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Silver dust. Win and boxed with knicks go.
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Old 11-07-2020, 02:10 PM   #56
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Wow. 10 minutes to post and Knicks Go is the 5/2 favorite. C'mon, he has a shot, but that's an underlay if I ever saw one.
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Old 11-07-2020, 08:07 PM   #57
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Did Mr Money finish yet?
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Old 11-07-2020, 09:17 PM   #58
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Did Mr Money finish yet?
Not too far behind Art Collector actually.
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Old 11-08-2020, 09:58 AM   #59
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Not too far behind Art Collector actually.
Both were on some of my tickets, but there was no way I was going to use a horse with "Knicks" in his name as the favorite. I've suffered for too long.
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Old 11-08-2020, 10:17 AM   #60
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Both were on some of my tickets, but there was no way I was going to use a horse with "Knicks" in his name as the favorite. I've suffered for too long.
How many times did you remember Charles Smith when you looked at Knicks Go ?
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