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Old 05-14-2020, 10:45 AM   #301
rastajenk
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Waste a couple minutes of your lives and watch this light-hearted romp that made the rounds about 3 weeks into the shutdown. Almost from the git-go some people were enjoying this crisis way too much:


"We're gonna do it our way, our way!"
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Old 05-14-2020, 12:34 PM   #302
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The frustrating part about that though, Mr Magician, is that the various states' policies were guided by doctors who had at some point become unelected "public health czars" who should have known how doctors and hospitals function. Here in Ohio ours attained celebrity status almost immediately, like Fauci did nationally. I was tired of her act before the end of March. But there you go; it wasn't just "idiots in government" doing the overreach. It was medical professionals stepping way up in class without encountering any resistance.
You guys act as if this is the first time anything like this has happened.

These doctors and health departments routinely deal with infectuous disease generally. There are local outbreaks of all sorts of stuff, and they deal with it. And they study and attend seminars on and conduct mock-exercises on pandemics and epidemics. And they talk with their colleagues all over the world, including the ones in other countries who have dealt with previous pandemics.

These are literally people who have spent years of their lives learning exactly what the data shows and what the best practices are.

And all you guys see is a doctor getting too big for his britches. That's just wallowing in ignorance.
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Old 05-14-2020, 12:49 PM   #303
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I dont think the issues are the doctors, but the doctors are being used as pawns in the chess game.

The issue is the moving goal posts, and Portnoy kinda nailed it. Pretty tough when your life is being wrecked to try and understand what the goal is and then to have that shift for political reasons is pretty frustrating.

All I heard for a month was flatten curves and hospital beds. I dont think I have heard that in a month.

Its now "until a vaccine....."
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Old 05-14-2020, 01:02 PM   #304
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One thing to consider is that the medical experts have a vested interest in EXTREME caution relative to other considerations like the economy.

If they say loosening up is OK and we get a second wave, they'll probably get crucified.

If they are extreme in their advice about locking down and the economy goes to hell, that's someone else's fault.

The biggest mystery to me is that Fauci was ridiculously wrong (as was WHO and FDA) at the start of this pandemic about what was likely to happen in the US, yet somehow he took very little heat. All the heat was directed elsewhere on people that were listening to the medical experts.

I'm obviously not advocating for us to stop listening to the medical experts, but they have about as good a record handicapping this pandemic so far as most rail birds at AQU that scream at jockeys after every race for all their losing selections.
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Old 05-14-2020, 01:10 PM   #305
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One thing to consider is that the medical experts have a vested interest in EXTREME caution relative to other considerations like the economy.

If they say loosening up is OK and we get a second wave, they'll probably get crucified.

If they are extreme in their advice about locking down and the economy goes to hell, that's someone else's fault.

The biggest mystery to me is that Fauci was ridiculously wrong (as was WHO and FDA) at the start of this pandemic about what was likely to happen in the US, yet somehow he took very little heat. All the heat was directed elsewhere on people that were listening to the medical experts.

I'm obviously not advocating for us to stop listening to the medical experts, but they have about as good a record handicapping this pandemic so far as most rail birds at AQU that scream at jockeys after every race for all their losing selections.
They dont know. Really, they model and make guesses. Sometimes they are right, sometimes they are wrong.

My county, which has 4 million people in it, with a large senior citizen population, has 268 deaths. We were one of the last to lockdown.

People here have been cautious but seeing the deaths compared to death of economy it feels like people are willing to take on a wee bit more risk.
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Old 05-14-2020, 01:27 PM   #306
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You guys act as if this is the first time anything like this has happened.

These doctors and health departments routinely deal with infectious disease generally. There are local outbreaks of all sorts of stuff, and they deal with it. And they study and attend seminars on and conduct mock-exercises on pandemics and epidemics. And they talk with their colleagues all over the world, including the ones in other countries who have dealt with previous pandemics.

These are literally people who have spent years of their lives learning exactly what the data shows and what the best practices are.

And all you guys see is a doctor getting too big for his britches. That's just wallowing in ignorance.
Even you can likely admit that there has to be a happy medium between us blindly and openly following the directives of epidemiologists and public health officials and living our lives with protocols and guidelines designed to combat the spread of the disease.

As far as past studies and experience anyone has garnered, there's never been anything like COVID. Every medical professional would agree. We also got no guidance or assistance from the CCP or WHO early on, to the point where Fauci himself was on national news programs saying that this didn't look like a threat to North America as late as February.

The divorce that has taken place in this country is between citizens and common sense. That is true of those that stand in public protesting stay-at-home orders as well as those who believe that simply opening a restaurant with 25% capacity and social distancing guidelines will lead to mass deaths.

What absolutely blows my mind is that with the most polarizing president ever in office, so much of the population has become wildly authoritarian, seemingly relying on the government to tell us what to do. People on social media clamoring for lockdowns being extended and for additional payments as "stimulus" is incredible. I guess the millennials have struck a chord.
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Old 05-14-2020, 01:36 PM   #307
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The lockdowns in both the UK and the US were predicated on Ferguson's model which initially predicted more than 2M deaths in the US.

Obviously, Ferguson's model was wrong.

It turns out Ferguson's model was based on bad code, bad assumptions - and as a result bad data science.

I submit to you the idea that Ferguson was not an expert who Prime Ministers and Presidents of countries like the UK and US ever should have listened to.

After our lockdowns were implemented:

Some but not all Governors and health officials overreached.

Imo, many became petty tyrants in the process.

In the state of Washington, boat owners were "allowed" to take their boats out onto the water. But fishing from a boat was specifically outlawed. God forbid people should be allowed to feed their families.

In the state of Michigan, people by the hundreds were allowed to cram into big box stores to shop for essential items like groceries, cigarettes, and lottery tickets. But god help anybody in need of a lawn chair or desk lamp. Buying those items were strictly forbidden.

In the state of California, people were ordered by the Governor to stay home except for essential activities like buying groceries, cigarettes, lottery tickets, or marijuana. Walking and jogging on city streets and sidewalks was allowed. But hiking trails and every square inch of city and county parks in southern California were closed. Anyone caught walking out onto an empty strip of coastline was subject to arrest and/or a $1000 fine. Meanwhile, actual criminals were released by the thousands from jail.

I could cite hundreds more examples. But I think you get the idea.

I submit to you the idea that many of our health officials are not the real experts they make themselves out to be.

Imo, many of their decisions have been arbitrary - as opposed to being based on the actual data.




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Old 05-14-2020, 01:40 PM   #308
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Old 05-14-2020, 01:45 PM   #309
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The divorce that has taken place in this country is between citizens and common sense. That is true of those that stand in public protesting stay-at-home orders as well as those who believe that simply opening a restaurant with 25% capacity and social distancing guidelines will lead to mass deaths.
This is kind of what I've been saying.

A lot of people seem incapable of finding the balance between risks associated with the virus and other things like the economy, mental health, treating other health issues etc..

It should be data driven and by people that actually understand the data, not by pinheads in the media.
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Old 05-14-2020, 01:47 PM   #310
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That's just wallowing in ignorance.
Let me explain something to you Einstein.....just because some people(many in this case) think differently than you on a subject,under no circumstances does that make them ignorant.
The fact that you actually think and communicate something like this points directly at you as the ignorant one.

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Old 05-14-2020, 02:01 PM   #311
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I dont think the issues are the doctors, but the doctors are being used as pawns in the chess game.

The issue is the moving goal posts, and Portnoy kinda nailed it. Pretty tough when your life is being wrecked to try and understand what the goal is and then to have that shift for political reasons is pretty frustrating.

All I heard for a month was flatten curves and hospital beds. I dont think I have heard that in a month.

Its now "until a vaccine....."
The moving goal posts are a result of the same thing that all the deniers on this board are latching onto- they are watching the DATA!

You impose a bunch of restrictions. Then you watch all the statistics. (Plus you watch other variables, like whether we have enough tests.) And then, based on the new data, you adjust.

And the point is, I trust the adjustments proposed the doctors, who are experts, over what I think are ideologically motivated people who don't know anything about the science and just cherry-pick whatever small piece of data allows them to argue "LET'S OPEN BACK UP", because that's what they wanted to do anyway.

The doctors are being honest and learning more. The deniers are not.
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Old 05-14-2020, 02:05 PM   #312
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Let me explain something to you Einstein.....just because some people(many in this case) think differently than you on a subject,under no circumstances does that make them ignorant.
The fact that you actually think and communicate something like this points directly at you as the ignorant one.
I don't think you are ignorant because you disagree with me.

I think you are ADVOCATING (or to be more colorful, wallowing in) ignorance when you post a bunch of stuff that is predicated on the assumption that you know just as much about one of the most complicated scientific topics as people who have spent decades studying this stuff.

Here's an analogy.

I don't think a religious person who believes, as a matter of religious faith, that Charles Darwin was wrong is ignorant.

I do think people who argue that 150 years of biologists who have spent decades of their lives studying the fossil record and testing Darwin's theories know no more about human evolution that some average person on the street are celebrating ignorance.

You have to have a real ego to think that all that study and science and testing and peer review and published papers and instruction and experimentation means nothing at all compared to your own opinion.
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Old 05-14-2020, 02:39 PM   #313
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You impose a bunch of restrictions. Then you watch all the statistics. (Plus you watch other variables, like whether we have enough tests.) And then, based on the new data, you adjust.

.
I have said this from the beginning, the people will decide their own risk. We have elections, we also have free will. They wont be able to lock people up forever.
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Old 05-14-2020, 02:40 PM   #314
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I don't think you are ignorant because you disagree with me.

I think you are ADVOCATING (or to be more colorful, wallowing in) ignorance when you post a bunch of stuff that is predicated on the assumption that you know just as much about one of the most complicated scientific topics as people who have spent decades studying this stuff.

Here's an analogy.

I don't think a religious person who believes, as a matter of religious faith, that Charles Darwin was wrong is ignorant.

I do think people who argue that 150 years of biologists who have spent decades of their lives studying the fossil record and testing Darwin's theories know no more about human evolution that some average person on the street are celebrating ignorance.

You have to have a real ego to think that all that study and science and testing and peer review and published papers and instruction and experimentation means nothing at all compared to your own opinion.
maybe this is Darwin looking down from heaven smiling and thinking...ah COVID 19...truly survival of the fittest.
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Old 05-14-2020, 02:51 PM   #315
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You impose a bunch of restrictions. Then you watch all the statistics. (Plus you watch other variables, like whether we have enough tests.) And then, based on the new data, you adjust.
The data and acting wisely is not nearly as complex as people are making it out to be.

The r0 is more or less the key to everything. That tells you how many other people each infected person is passing it on to.

If the r0 =1 that means the caseload will remain flat. Each infected person passes it on to 1 other person. One gets better (or dies) and a new one replaces them.

If the r0 is > 1 new cases will expand. 1 expands to 2 new ones, then 4 new ones etc..

If the r0 < 1 new cases will shrink. (the lower the better)

The r0 itself is a function of how contagious the disease is, but it's also a function of how densely populated the area is, what activities people are engaging in, are they wearing masks, are they social distancing etc..

At the start of the pandemic the r0 was WAY above 1. That's why it spread rapidly in NY.

Now in most states (including NY) it's below 1 because we locked down, started wearing masks, started social distancing, started washing hands, etc... That's why new cases and deaths per day are shrinking now.

So let's say we decide to open restaurants at 50% capacity.

The idea would then be to trace cases spreading in restaurants. If the r0 in restaurants goes to higher than 1, you have to reduce them to 25% capacity or close them back down to only delivery and pickup with masks. You can't allow restaurants to become super spreaders. If the r0 remains below 1, maybe you can try opening them up to 75% capacity.

The better you can test and trace things, the better you know what can remain open and what has to close in each city/state because you have to keep the r0 below 1 to reduce the spread. How extreme you want to be to get the ro lower is the debate, but it HAS TO BE lower than 1 or you start running into problems with healthcare and hospitals.
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