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Old 05-03-2020, 10:13 PM   #31
Clocker
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This is very basic and VERY simple. Saratoga is the strongest brand in the sport. It commands the most attention from every stakeholder. You can’t run it elsewhere and expect the same results.

I don't know what the brand reference means, or how to measure it. I have been playing horses most days for years, and have no particular feeling about Saratoga superiority. I look at the entries every day and play or don't play Saratoga based on how I feel about that card compared to other tracks.


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You can’t run it elsewhere and expect the same results.
True. And running it at Saratoga without fans is running it elsewhere, and you can't predict the results. I fail to see how running at Saratoga or running Saratoga at Belmont could have any effect on me as an on-line player. And there are obvious advantages to the horsemen, at a time when they need every advantage they can get to keep the sport alive.
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Old 05-03-2020, 10:28 PM   #32
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A non-Saratoga Saratoga....who are these people saying it would handle the same?
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Old 05-03-2020, 10:43 PM   #33
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And running it at Saratoga without fans is running it elsewhere, and you can't predict the results.
This seems like a rather obvious point.

The other thing to remember is that everything these days has to meet approval from government officials. Nobody's getting to make pure business decisions. The decisionmakers who will ultimately have to authorize NYRA going up to Saratoga are people who really aren't going to be swayed by arguments about handle and marketing.
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Old 05-03-2020, 10:56 PM   #34
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This seems like a rather obvious point.

The other thing to remember is that everything these days has to meet approval from government officials. Nobody's getting to make pure business decisions. The decisionmakers who will ultimately have to authorize NYRA going up to Saratoga are people who really aren't going to be swayed by arguments about handle and marketing.
Curious...at what point, if ever, does this come into effect:

https://www.justice.gov/crt/deprivat...nder-color-law
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Old 05-04-2020, 01:47 AM   #35
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Why are we even discussing whether there would be a difference in handle between Saratoga and Saratoga at Belmont? This is very basic and VERY simple. Saratoga is the strongest brand in the sport. It commands the most attention from every stakeholder. You can’t run it elsewhere and expect the same results. Look at the off-track handle figs. I took a record Belmont Saturday and compared it with a new Saratoga Saturday and the difference was almost 10%.

And the “Will Rogers and Fonner handle proves people will bet on anything” argument is not applicable. There are two tracks running on those days and everyone is locked at home.
I find this argument puzzling. You are saying that if everything were identical: date of race (mid July-Aug), horses, race conditions; jockeys, trainers etc., the simulcast horseplayer would bet more if the TV logo said Saratoga. I mentioned on another thread that, while the Saratoga, and Belmont main tracks are fairly comparable (Saratoga offers 2 turn 1 1/8 miles, but Belmont has much greater variety of distances, especially one mile racing), there is no doubt that the Belmont turf courses are better from a competitive viewpoint. It is impossible to simply compare handles (only off track of course) b/c June/July at Belmont not comparable to Saratoga.
Looking past the possible handle differences (even "almost 10%"), how about the trainer Contessa quote? Moving 1500 horses upstate has to cost over half a million, but the expense of relocating everyone involved must cost several million more. Who will foot this bill? Obviously, it all works when Toga rocking with fans, but, now, with trainers and owners wilting (like a lot of society), does it make sense?

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Old 05-04-2020, 01:53 AM   #36
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Curious...at what point, if ever, does this come into effect:

https://www.justice.gov/crt/deprivat...nder-color-law
Never. As long as the government has a rational basis for shutting down businesses, which the pandemic provides, and doesn't discriminate against a protected class, there's no due process violations.

I might add that NYRA probably has a second problem. The courts have consistently treated NYRA as part of NY State government for 50 years. NYRA hates this, but it's the law. So how would NYRA have standing to sue the state for violating its due process rights? How would NYRA even have due process rights?
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Old 05-04-2020, 02:00 AM   #37
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Never. As long as the government has a rational basis for shutting down businesses, which the pandemic provides, and doesn't discriminate against a protected class, there's no due process violations.
And who, exactly, determines if the government (in this case, the state) has a rational basis for shutting down businesses?

At the beginning of a pandemic, sure, it's tough to make the argument the state is not acting rationally.

How about a couple of months later? How about 5-6 months later?

Who is the arbiter of such conflicts?

I'm thinking that you aren't thinking this through.

You mention precedent a LOT in our discussions about this matter.

However, how much precedent exists for what we are going through today?

When was the last time large swaths of the economy were shut down for extended periods of time by state governors? Can you remember any? Due to a pandemic?

How much precedent REALLY exists for something like this?
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Old 05-04-2020, 09:50 AM   #38
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I find this argument puzzling. You are saying that if everything were identical: date of race (mid July-Aug), horses, race conditions; jockeys, trainers etc., the simulcast horseplayer would bet more if the TV logo said Saratoga. I mentioned on another thread that, while the Saratoga, and Belmont main tracks are fairly comparable (Saratoga offers 2 turn 1 1/8 miles, but Belmont has much greater variety of distances, especially one mile racing), there is no doubt that the Belmont turf courses are better from a competitive viewpoint. It is impossible to simply compare handles (only off track of course) b/c June/July at Belmont not comparable to Saratoga.
Looking past the possible handle differences (even "almost 10%"), how about the trainer Contessa quote? Moving 1500 horses upstate has to cost over half a million, but the expense of relocating everyone involved must cost several million more. Who will foot this bill? Obviously, it all works when Toga rocking with fans, but, now, with trainers and owners wilting (like a lot of society), does it make sense?
Gary Contessa's opinion matters to NYRA about as much as that of Dilanesp. Hell, they had roughly the same win percentage at Saratoga last year.

First, to answer your question, yes. Put the same field in the gate for the same race at the same distance at Belmont and Saratoga and it is 100% handling more at Saratoga.

More importantly, if you don't run at Saratoga, the racing at Belmont will NEVER be of the same caliber during that time period. Even if you bumped the purses up for the "Saratoga at Belmont" portion of the meet. Kentucky horsemen are not going to ship horses to Belmont for a "Saratoga at Belmont" meet. The prestige and allure of winning at Saratoga is gone. I understand the hang-ups for the virus, but it's ridiculous to conjecture about that in early May when the meet we're talking about is 10 weeks away. We have no idea what the situation will be in six weeks, though many people would like to see us quarantine for the next 4 years.

If you don't think these things are real, then why did Gulfstream destroy Calder handle-wise when they were running the same races in 2013? Why does Del Mar handle more than Santa Anita? Why could you run the exact same race on a Thursday afternoon in late September at CD and it'll get out-handled easily by a comparable race in October at Keeneland?

Certain tracks have appeal that others do not.
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Old 05-04-2020, 09:52 AM   #39
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I don't know what the brand reference means, or how to measure it. I have been playing horses most days for years, and have no particular feeling about Saratoga superiority. I look at the entries every day and play or don't play Saratoga based on how I feel about that card compared to other tracks.


True. And running it at Saratoga without fans is running it elsewhere, and you can't predict the results. I fail to see how running at Saratoga or running Saratoga at Belmont could have any effect on me as an on-line player. And there are obvious advantages to the horsemen, at a time when they need every advantage they can get to keep the sport alive.
Cool story. You are clearly the exception to the rule.
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Old 05-04-2020, 11:19 AM   #40
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Gary Contessa's opinion matters to NYRA about as much as that of Dilanesp. Hell, they had roughly the same win percentage at Saratoga last year.

More importantly, if you don't run at Saratoga, the racing at Belmont will NEVER be of the same caliber during that time period. Even if you bumped the purses up for the "Saratoga at Belmont" portion of the meet. Kentucky horsemen are not going to ship horses to Belmont for a "Saratoga at Belmont" meet. The prestige and allure of winning at Saratoga is gone. I understand the hang-ups for the virus,
Gary Contessa's opinion may mean little to NYRA, but the mathematics of moving trainers, horses, their families, backstretch employees, and equipment are 100% certain and apply to virtually everyone going there. That even includes a total non entity like me that might ship two horses up there that I own 10% of.

Unless things change, in all probability I won't be able to see them race, won't be able to attend the races, won't vacation there, and won't be hanging out in town restaurants and bars the way I usually do.

Why spend the extra money to ship to Sataoga?

And my extra expense won't even be close to trainers, their families, and others where the costs are significant.

Because of the Saratoga logo?

If we do it, it will be against our wishes.

I agree that if they ran Saratoga at Belmont the purses would have to be the same, but I see no reason they wouldn't be except for some funky "brand math" that may not even be accurate.

I see no reason people from KY, CA, and elsewhere won't ship in to Belmont to win prestigious races like the Travers, Whitney, Alabama etc.. because of the logo. Those races would have enormous value to whoever wins them no matter where they are run.

There is a 0% chance my handle will be different at Belmont vs Saratoga on the typical day given the same races.

Trainers are shipping top horses to OP from everywhere now because they are seeking out the best opportunity available. Saratoga at Belmont would still be the best game in town in the east and the best game in the entire country on many big race days.

I'm not trying to be a pain in the ass here, but the pro Saratoga people are making branding handle "assumptions" and not thinking about costs and risks which are certain at all.

The better argument in favor of Saratoga is that the Belmont turf courses won't be able to handle the load and will need a break.
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Old 05-04-2020, 11:27 AM   #41
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Gary Contessa's opinion matters to NYRA about as much as that of Dilanesp. Hell, they had roughly the same win percentage at Saratoga last year.

First, to answer your question, yes. Put the same field in the gate for the same race at the same distance at Belmont and Saratoga and it is 100% handling more at Saratoga.

More importantly, if you don't run at Saratoga, the racing at Belmont will NEVER be of the same caliber during that time period. Even if you bumped the purses up for the "Saratoga at Belmont" portion of the meet. Kentucky horsemen are not going to ship horses to Belmont for a "Saratoga at Belmont" meet. The prestige and allure of winning at Saratoga is gone. I understand the hang-ups for the virus, but it's ridiculous to conjecture about that in early May when the meet we're talking about is 10 weeks away. We have no idea what the situation will be in six weeks, though many people would like to see us quarantine for the next 4 years.

If you don't think these things are real, then why did Gulfstream destroy Calder handle-wise when they were running the same races in 2013? Why does Del Mar handle more than Santa Anita? Why could you run the exact same race on a Thursday afternoon in late September at CD and it'll get out-handled easily by a comparable race in October at Keeneland?

Certain tracks have appeal that others do not.
I agree with you about the "prestige and glory" of Saratoga....but not so sure when the stands are a ghost town, and owners/breeders are not even allowed on the backstretch. I am surprised how little you value a trainer like Contessa (74 starters at the Spa last year). I can think of 20-30 similar guys who help fill out cards. You fail to recognize the unusual nature of this coming summer. The industry in NY has now missed 2 months worth of racing, with zero income for owners and trainers. I can easily see many of these type trainers deciding to stay at Belmont, even should racing move upstate, They each would save tens of thousands plus there will be no owners to entertain anyway. You mention Kentucky shippers. Earlier I posted an article from Louisville speculating that Keeneland might run a summer meet; in addition, I doubt anyone is rushing on airplanes to fly into Albany. Consider also that Monmouth has announced a meet starting July 4. With a shortened season, my guess is the purses will be strong, and one no longer has to beat Servis and Navarro. What will happen to Saratoga field size????
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Old 05-04-2020, 11:51 AM   #42
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And who, exactly, determines if the government (in this case, the state) has a rational basis for shutting down businesses?

At the beginning of a pandemic, sure, it's tough to make the argument the state is not acting rationally.

How about a couple of months later? How about 5-6 months later?

Who is the arbiter of such conflicts?

I'm thinking that you aren't thinking this through.

You mention precedent a LOT in our discussions about this matter.

However, how much precedent exists for what we are going through today?

When was the last time large swaths of the economy were shut down for extended periods of time by state governors? Can you remember any? Due to a pandemic?

How much precedent REALLY exists for something like this?
When you are under rational basis review, the government always wins, PA.

Using the courts is a fantasy. If someone has a religion claim, fine, they are open for that. But everyone else is losing their suits. There's really not much constitutional protection for operating a business in a pandemic. These cases are losers.
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Old 05-04-2020, 12:02 PM   #43
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You sure seem to see no reason to have courts - just follow the law lock-step and everything vill ve fine!
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Old 05-04-2020, 12:49 PM   #44
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You sure seem to see no reason to have courts - just follow the law lock-step and everything vill ve fine!
The courts follow the law. The law, developed in prior epidemics, says the government has this power.

You guys have to convince elected officials of your arguments. And in some places, the elected officials are relaxing restrictions. So there's no denial of access to the political process here.

What has happened here is very simple- 18,000 people have died in New York State. The politicians are listening to scientists because there's a killer virus on the loose. And the polls show the public is on their side.

No court is going to step into that situation. You have to convince your fellow citizens in New York that this is no longer a big deal and the risk to people's lives is worth taking. That's the only way you can have your preferences enacted.
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Old 05-04-2020, 12:51 PM   #45
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Does anyone know if there has actually been a suit in court. State or Federal over lockdown authority.
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