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Old 04-29-2020, 12:09 PM   #16
46zilzal
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In Vancouver we used to get a Hong Kong based racing from. With the charts, that only gave relative positions at the calls, they published photos at those same calls so that the aggressive practical player, could combine those two to have the equivalent of DRF charts and be way up on the competition.

The contests are so full of "trips" than negate logical pace evaluation (as most turf races are prone to being) that even that kind of advantage is of little long term help.
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Old 04-29-2020, 01:39 PM   #17
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In response to Overkill

There have been some wonderful answers given so far, but I will answer what you have posted directly.

aa) I would think the best races, such as a Group 1, would have the biggest pools. You can only access pools on the actual raceday, as the HKJC does not have them in their charts. Most HK races go from $700,000 - $2,000,000 for purse money, however take the big race this past weekend, the QEII Cup where the purse was $25,000,00 HK. The track doesn't have a "take" on the purses, so no, there isn't a formula (on my opinion)

bb) Drafting is huge in the shorter races. I think in the longer races, where you would like to have cover, it is the stamina that usually wins the marathon distance races. You will see once they turn past the 400 meters, they are all across the track making their runs.

cc) I don't think you can compare distance and longshots, however the lower class races anything can happen at any track. Yenzatta wouldn't win going 6 furlongs, so would you still bet her at 1/5? A horse that doesn't fit the distance or the class level is not worth the bet.

dd) Surface doesn't matter regarding longshots, but on the off chance they do run on the all weather, check the record over the surface. If they aren't hitting the board in 4+ tries, then I would proceed with caution. Was it the surface, or the class they are running, or the wrong distance, so many factors come into a decision like that, hence the proceed with caution warning.

ee) Griffin races are the maiden baby events and aren't popular with the HK bettors. Class 5 is lowest for winners, Class 1 is the toughest before you get into the Open races and Stakes races. So the longshots usually would happen in Griffin or Class 3-4-5. The closer to class 1 the more formful it "should" be. But this is HK and everyone has a fighting chance if recent form is good enough to mark them as a contender.

ff) Ted had a great answer as his 2. but to touch on the final odds, they don't show them going around the track as North America does. The tote delay-update is probably mere seconds to the most accurate price in HK, unlike the snails pace of the outdated technology we have here for live racing. Pat Cummings does an outstanding job following the HKJC

gg) Yes. Advance-deposit wagering (ADW)

hh) I believe Ted had the answer for you, but no, you could not do that. Why? ADW's require your personal info upon signing up, and your state doesn't allow it so they would not permit an account under your name, address, SSN, due to state restrictions.

No cost for wagers online or at the OTB and most OTB's do not offer HK due to how late they run. However I would look into which online provider offers the best rewards.

ii) Once again Ted had a fantastic response in his #3. a)

jj) I will try to use US $ explanation, as it should be easier. Let's use today's 9th race from Happy Valley this morning.

The QU paid $66.36 for a $1.30 bet (a $2.60 bet pays $132.72)

The QU pool was $51,092,279 in US$

After the takeout of 17.5% it = $42,151,130 left to pay out to the winners.

$42,151,130 million divided by the $1.30 QU payout of $66.36 means $635,188 was bet on the correct result. If you would have bet $2,600 (2,000 bets at $1.30 each) here in the states, the QU payoff would have dropped by .21 cents, paying $66.15 and your huge bet would have paid $132,300

Using pools provided by twinspires & my rough math, that a big bet doesn't dent the pools at all over there. Maybe Ted can feel free to check my math, however, I am going off of what my ADW provided. AmWager shows the actual HK$ pools if I am not mistaken.
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Old 04-29-2020, 02:28 PM   #18
Ted Craven
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Mason, just a quick note for now -

That Race 9 Quinella pool amount ($51,092,27) is in HK$, not US$. Multiply by .13 for US$.

US$ value = $6,641,996. (Total for the day was ~ US$137.6 million).

I think that affects the rest of your calculations. Will check back later.

Also, a public source of North American-converted payoffs (in US$) and pool sizes (in HK$) is at TwinSpires Mobile, here: https://www.twinspires.com/bet/progr...v/Thoroughbred Though, HKJC is just as concise (and historic) - just remember to move the decimal to the left!

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Old 04-29-2020, 04:10 PM   #19
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Thanks Ted

Revised math based on Ted's numbers:

QU pool is $5,479,646 after 17.5% takeout

So if Overkill played a $2,600 ticket (or 2,000 straight tickets) and hit it, the return for each $1.30 ticket would be $64.78 resulting in $1.57 less (per ticket) than the posted payout today (which was $66.35) = $129,560 for your hypothetical bet.

The AmWager pools did throw me off a bit doing the back and forth math between ADW's but nevertheless, kudos to others who have helped explain HK racing to Overkill and others wanting to know. I think it's a great product with gigantic sized pools every race day!

This link below is a great local resource regarding racing, tips, form and more in HK
https://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/news
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Old 04-29-2020, 08:43 PM   #20
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Wow, thank you Ted and Mason and others, and...

your replies are much appreciated. It's a lot to digest, especially without the benefit of a real-time, in-person (or phone) conversation. I guess OTBs and racetracks are good places to learn more.

1) Do you guys or other handicappers ever offer classes or tutoring or network in person, like at conferences or group meetings? Maybe someday I will meet some of you somehow.

For those willing to indulge me even further!:

2) Onesome, what does ST stand for?

3) Ted, thanks for the ADW info.! Concerning legality, is the consensus that though my state still considers online horse betting illegal, they will never prosecute? Or does the ADW somehow make it 100% legal and risk free for me in my state of Missouri?

4) When Las Vegas reopens, can one place Hong Kong racing wagers there (because much of Las Vegas is open 24 hours.)?

5) Ted, what does RTN stand for, and what did you mean by "bookmarking?"

6) 46zilzal, what did you mean by 'pace evaluation' and 'trips?'

7) I understand about getting the US amount by moving the decimal of the HK amount to the left, and to get the HK amount we move the decimal of the HK amount to the right. So in what scenario do we multiply (or divide?) by .8, or is it multiply (or divide?) by 1.3?

Thank you again! Please don't feel pressured to answer the above. I don't want to be a burden or overstay my welcome!
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Old 04-29-2020, 09:21 PM   #21
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OVERKILL

Question number 2 , What does ST stand for?
Answer is SHA TIN race course ( AWT) (ALL WEATHER TRACK ) and TURF usually Sunday afternoon 1am Sunday morning eastern time zone, the other course is Happy Valley ( strictly turf racing ) Wednesday night in Hong Kong , 6:45 am eastern time zone.
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Old 04-29-2020, 09:30 PM   #22
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Question number 5 what is RTN ( Racetrack Television Network) ,what is bookmarking, answer A bookmark is a saved shortcut that directs your browser to a specific webpage. It stores the title, URL, and favicon of the corresponding page. ... Internet Explorer uses the name "Favorites" to refer to bookmarks, and like Safari, it displays all your favorites in a list within the browser window sidebar

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Old 04-29-2020, 09:51 PM   #23
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Question 6 What did you mean by 'pace evaluation' and 'trips? Each handicapper does have process of including those TWO methods/ideas to either select a horse to wager or find a horse for a FUTURE wager. PACE EVALUATION , example a particular RACE has a lot of speed/early or a slow early race etc etc. TRIPS , again how you determine a horse may run based several factors ( post position , jockey , PACE EVALUATION ETC ETC ) or if a horse has a BAD TRIP during a race ( bad post, missed break etc etc ) this horse could be a future wager because of a BAD trip during the race . A disclaimer each handicapper/person is mostly certainly going to have a different explanation but generally fairly similar that's what make horse racing GREAT.

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Old 04-29-2020, 10:50 PM   #24
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Overkill View Post

3) Ted, thanks for the ADW info.! Concerning legality, is the consensus that though my state still considers online horse betting illegal, they will never prosecute? Or does the ADW somehow make it 100% legal and risk free for me in my state of Missouri?
I don't know the specific answer to that, but I'm guessing the ADW has some kind of license to operate in Missouri, or other legal means to accommodate your wagers that the state does not object to.

Anyway, you can get the specific answers from experts by following the info I sent you, BEFORE you commit to opening or funding any account.

Also, I'm guessing you either already HAVE a model on how to find bettable contenders for Hong Kong or have some ideas how to create one (it IS fun, but it's NOT easy, and BIG betting syndicates have a 20+ year head start on you ). Or -- you could spend some months developing your handicapping and betting approach to Hong Kong, back test it on paper, THEN open and fund an online ADW account only when ready. There need be no rush to bet unprepared. 22 race days left in the current Hong Kong season, ending July 15, restarting September.

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Old 05-05-2020, 12:43 PM   #25
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Thank you again to those who posted, and...

I apologize for the delay in replying.

Yes, I am working on a model or two for Hong Kong. Right now, I am also researching past performances at greyhound tracks around the world. In the US, I believe (mostly in Florida) many will be closing permanently in a season or two?. So, I'd like to see about possibly wagering at those facilities before they close.

Does anyone here wager on greyhounds, and can you recommend any good resources such as forums, etc.?

Thank you again!
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Old 05-05-2020, 07:00 PM   #26
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Overkill View Post
Yes, I am working on a model or two for Hong Kong. Right now, I am also researching past performances at greyhound tracks around the world. In the US, I believe (mostly in Florida) many will be closing permanently in a season or two?. So, I'd like to see about possibly wagering at those facilities before they close.

Does anyone here wager on greyhounds, and can you recommend any good resources such as forums, etc.?
I wouldn't bother with trying to get started playing FL greyhound racing as the few remaining tracks close Dec. 31 & after that you will have Wheeling, Tri-State (Mardi Gras) and Dubuque Iowa left. Southland greyhounds in AR end in 2022 with reduced dates.

https://www.commercialappeal.com/sto...is/4010481002/

I would start paying attention to Wheeling as they will have the best runners and 110 races a week to bet. It is a tougher track, but you'll enjoy it.

Tread lightly in M and D graded races, since the form is very inconsistent and the short 3/16 mile races are also ones to avoid, because if they miss the break, it's over just like that.

Any of the greyhound forums I was on is long gone. Greyhound racing is heavily knocking on deaths door in the USA. While sad, they brought this on themselves with ongoing problems while turning a blind eye.
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Old 05-06-2020, 02:35 AM   #27
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Originally Posted by Overkill View Post
I apologize for the delay in replying.

Yes, I am working on a model or two for Hong Kong. Right now, I am also researching past performances at greyhound tracks around the world. In the US, I believe (mostly in Florida) many will be closing permanently in a season or two?. So, I'd like to see about possibly wagering at those facilities before they close.

Does anyone here wager on greyhounds, and can you recommend any good resources such as forums, etc.?

Thank you again!
For the love of god why? You're literally going to go from a 3 star Michelin restaurant to dumpster diving going down the greyhound route. Even if by some miracle you found something, its short term and theres only like 30 bucks in the pools. Just stop.
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Old 05-31-2020, 03:53 PM   #28
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Ok, thank you about for post about avoiding greyhound racing.

Sorry for the late reply. Take care.
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