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Old 04-28-2020, 11:36 AM   #16
Saratoga_Mike
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I feel really bad when I read these stories in upstate NY media. The authors are clearly big homers, hoping beyond hope that this thing they live for every year in their remote region will still happen, and looking for every tea leaf they can attach to.

NYRA has to have contingency plans for anything, but the reality is as of now NYRA can't even stage a maiden claiming race without fans at Belmont. They are WAY away from any actual decision to run big races at Saratoga, no matter what the local boosters in upstate NY media say.
Can you state your opinion without condescension?
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Old 04-28-2020, 11:37 AM   #17
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This thread is not about Saratoga. It’s about Del Mar.

Why seemingly everyone from coast to coast is obsessed with Saratoga and NYRA is beyond me. Start a new thread about Saratoga.

I want everyone’s opinion on how a grassroots effort led by horsemen in LA county has been completely ignored, keeping Santa Anita from opening. What does that do for Del Mar? Are they supposed to be hopeful they exist in a racing-friendly county like Los Al does? Can an entire state’s industry be held up like that with no recourse?

I’d ask the person with the most knowledge on NY racing to weigh in, considering he lives in CA.
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Old 04-28-2020, 11:40 AM   #18
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Sorry - the Saratoga thread was shutdown. I didn't want to start a new one, same topic, but you're right.
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Old 04-28-2020, 11:40 AM   #19
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I have some insider knowledge of this particular decision. While announcements have not yet been made, decisions have. Schools are highly likely to remain closed in the fall, especially in the cities in California.
If the decision has been made why do you qualify as highly likely? Wouldn't it be a done deal if the decision has been made?
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Old 04-28-2020, 11:52 AM   #20
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If the decision has been made why do you qualify as highly likely? Wouldn't it be a done deal if the decision has been made?
There are reasons why some options are kept officially open. Some conferences that everyone knows will be cancelled are still officially on. There are lots of flights scheduled in the late Spring that the airlines know they will cancel.

The information I have is that some major education decisionmakers in California have already decided to keep schools closed in the fall. But the announcement won't come until later on.

That DOES mean that there is a slight, theoretical chance that the decision will reversed. But nobody thinks that will happen.
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Old 04-28-2020, 11:53 AM   #21
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Can you state your opinion without condescension?
The stories coming out of upstate NY local media have a pathetic tone. The media is in total denial up there. That's not my doing.
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Old 04-28-2020, 11:57 AM   #22
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The stories coming out of upstate NY local media have a pathetic tone. The media is in total denial up there. That's not my doing.
Please read the WNYT article, then you'll realize it isn't full of rah-rah.
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Old 04-28-2020, 12:11 PM   #23
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I have some insider knowledge of this particular decision. While announcements have not yet been made, decisions have. Schools are highly likely to remain closed in the fall, especially in the cities in California.
Absolutely ridiculous.
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Old 04-28-2020, 12:16 PM   #24
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Does anyone know when a final decision has to made on whether Del Mar can run and whether it will be with or without fans?

We all know the models being used to project the virus are dependent on what governments do, how people respond, and a lot of subjective assumptions that often turn out to be wrong, but mid July is a long way away.

Here are the projections for CA.

This model is essentially saying that by early July CA will be done with new cases of the virus. In fact, it's saying things will great by the end of May. If that's even close to accurate. Del Mar will be probably running in July and may even be allowed to have fans.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/unite...ica/california


The same is true of NY and Saratoga.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/unite...erica/new-york

Again, these models could be way off. Also, changes in policy to loosen things up and balance economics vs the virus could push these dates out further by exposing more people in May and June, but if they are even close to right we are not that far away from some good news in May.
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Old 04-28-2020, 12:21 PM   #25
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Absolutely ridiculous.
Not at all. We are going to be distancing here for a LONG time. That's true even if we partially "re-open".

Get used to distance learning, at least in California.
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Old 04-28-2020, 12:23 PM   #26
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Does anyone know when a final decision has to made on whether Del Mar can run and whether it will be with or without fans?

We all know the models being used to project the virus are dependent on what governments do, how people respond, and a lot of subjective assumptions that often turn out to be wrong, but mid July is a long way away.

Here are the projections for CA.

This model is essentially saying that by early July CA will be done with new cases of the virus. In fact, it's saying things will great by the end of May. If that's even close to accurate. Del Mar will be probably running in July and may even be allowed to have fans.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/unite...ica/california


The same is true of NY and Saratoga.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/unite...erica/new-york

Again, these models could be way off. Also, changes in policy to loosen things up and balance economics vs the virus could push these dates out further by exposing more people in May and June, but if they are even close to right we are not that far away from some good news in May.
Del Mar running is completely at the discretion of the San Diego County health department. If they authorize it, Del Mar can run.

Del Mar running with spectators isn't happening, as we will still be distancing, but it would be the same health department plus Gavin Newsom who would have to sign off on that.
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Old 04-28-2020, 12:30 PM   #27
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Not at all. We are going to be distancing here for a LONG time. That's true even if we partially "re-open".

Get used to distance learning, at least in California.
I'm not sure how you define a "long time," but eventually a vaccine(s) will hit the market. I assume you agree?
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Old 04-28-2020, 12:48 PM   #28
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I'm not sure how you define a "long time," but eventually a vaccine(s) will hit the market. I assume you agree?
That would be great but it would be the first coronavirus vaccine ever. The last time there was a big push for a vaccine was during the AIDS crisis. Still waiting. The good news is that the smartest scientists in the world are all trying to make this happen sooner than later.
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Old 04-28-2020, 12:57 PM   #29
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That would be great but it would be the first coronavirus vaccine ever. The last time there was a big push for a vaccine was during the AIDS crisis. Still waiting. The good news is that the smartest scientists in the world are all trying to make this happen sooner than later.
That isn't actually true -- check out this article (can't believe it hasn't received more press)….

"Scientists around the world are competing to develop a vaccine to stop the coronavirus, and in this race, a laboratory at Oxford University has a big head start.

...scientists at Oxford’s Jenner Institute had already proved in previous trials that similar inoculations — including one last year against another coronavirus — were harmless to humans.

That has enabled them to leap ahead to the next step and schedule tests involving more than 6,000 people by the end of next month.

the first few million doses of their vaccine could be available by September."

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/27/w...#link-2efc59ae
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Old 04-28-2020, 01:18 PM   #30
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That isn't actually true -- check out this article (can't believe it hasn't received more press)….

"Scientists around the world are competing to develop a vaccine to stop the coronavirus, and in this race, a laboratory at Oxford University has a big head start.

...scientists at Oxford’s Jenner Institute had already proved in previous trials that similar inoculations — including one last year against another coronavirus — were harmless to humans.

That has enabled them to leap ahead to the next step and schedule tests involving more than 6,000 people by the end of next month.

the first few million doses of their vaccine could be available by September."

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/27/w...#link-2efc59ae
I think there is a difference in being effective and being harmless to humans. Both are obviously necessary. I should have stated that an effective coronavirus vaccine has never been developed.
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