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Old 04-23-2020, 07:44 PM   #1
Overkill
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Basic Newbie Questions - Hong Kong, etc.

Hello all,

I am new (though apparently I first joined in 2017, but I dont remember). Please excuse any posting blunders such as posting in the wrong location, etc.

1) With regard to Hong Kong racing, if I make a $2 wager on, say, the 5-8 Quinela, and I win, lets say I profit $30. But what if instead I had wagered $10 (five $2 wagers) instead of $2 on the same Quinela, would I then profit roughly $150 ($30 X 5), or a lesser amount due to the nature of parimutual wagering (pools, etc.)?

2) Does however you answer the above question also apply to placing win bets?, place bets?, show bets?, trifecta bets?, superfecta bets? I don't suppose if I placed 5 $2 wagers on the, say, 5-8-1-6 straight superfecta, and it won, that I would receive five times ($100,000) what the $2 superfecta payout ($20,000) is, correct?

3) Do most folks on this forum not wager on Hong Kong races? Is it more difficult to do so from the U.S.? (I live in Missouri.).

4) For those familiar with Hong Kong racing, the posted "Dividends" are listed in Hong Kong dollars, but when I do the math utilizing the "Winning Odds" (e.g., 15-1 pays $32), that figure is not squaring with what I arrive at by simply converting the listed Hong Kong Dividend amount to US dollars. Any insight would be appreciated. By the way, is it correct to use "Winning Odds" to calculate dividends, or do I use some other figure such as odds just prior to the start of the race (or are these two the same thing?)?

Thank you in advance for any feedback/answers/suggestions, etc. And if possible, please reply in the following manner:

1) Xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx...

2) Xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx...

3) Xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx...

4) Xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx...
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Old 04-23-2020, 08:45 PM   #2
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1) The USA market offers wagers at $1.30 on most ADW sites to match the HK pools (exchange rate) which is a $10 bet over there. So a quiniela paying $30 means the bet would have cost you $2.60 in the USA, but yes your basic math is right. The size of your bets will never make a dent in the HK pools because they are so massive handle wise

Also in HK they have a quiniela place wager (or omni here) meaning your two horses need to finish 1st and 2nd or 1st and 3rd or 2nd and 3rd to cash. The payout is much lower than the real quiniela.

2) Again you are technically right, but every bet would be a $1.30 straight bet. So if you played a $13 straight super, and it hit, you would get the payoff 10x the amount posted in HK. Some ADW's however do not allow Superfecta wagering.

3) Most ADW's offer HK racing, however I do not know what restrictions your state has regarding it. I love wagering on HK and Australian racing, but I can't speak for the rest of the site users. HK is clearly light years ahead of the USA market.

4) Dividends are unofficial results and correct weight means the race is offical. They use odds such as 4.5 and not 9/2. So when doing the math, odds of 6.2 pays $62 for $10 HK dollars. The rough math here in the States would be the odds of 6.2 x 1.3 (again just rough math, not the exact payout due to breakage and other small tote conversion factors) to get close to what it will pay in the USA. Also, the place bet over there means the horse needs to show. It is Win / Show wagering for us fans in North America

The HK website in english

https://entertainment.hkjc.com/enter...ish/index.aspx
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Old 04-24-2020, 06:21 PM   #3
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Hong Kong information......

https://www.drf.com/news/drf-s-guide...ng-kong-racing

http://static.drf.com/HongKongBettingGuide.pdf
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Old 04-24-2020, 11:45 PM   #4
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Thank you, Mason and Tom, and to clarify:

A) Aside from U.S. tracks offering the $.10 Superfectas, many US tracks have the minimum straight Superfecta wager costing $1.00 (U.S.). Hong Kong 's equivalent to this is the (about) $1.30 US (10 Hong Kong dollars) straight Superfecta wager. Is this correct?

And, just to clarify, let's say I bet 10 Hong Kong dollars on the 2-4-10-7 straight Superfecta in Race 6, and I win and it pays 100,000 Hong Kong dollars. Then I would collect 100,000 Hong Kong dollars. But if instead of wagering 10 Hong Kong dollars I wagered 100 Hong Kong dollars, I would then collect 1,000,000 Hong Kong dollars if the 2-4-10-7 straight Superfecta hit?

B) But I thought the (capped?) Superfecta pool is divided by the number of winning straight Superfecta tickets? So in the case of me owning 10 winning tickets vs. just 1 winning ticket, don't I need to share the payout for those 10 winning tickets with the other Superfecta winners in the pool, thereby reducing the payout for each 1 winning ticket?

C) Mason, you indicated something about "correct weight" regarding official results. Was that a typo? Did you mean to say that when the results indicate "Winning Odds," that means that the results are official?

If "Dividends" lists the unofficial payouts, how do I find out what the official payout is for something like a Trifecta or Superfecta (for which there are no odds, meaning that I cannot calculate the payout as I can, say, for a "Win" wager)?

And, if I am generating a model or algorithym and want to know what a horse's final odds were PRIOR to the start of a race 3 months ago, can I use "Winning Odds" on the Results page, or is "Winning Odds" not the same as the odds just prior to the start of the race.

D) Finally, is the base or minimum Win wager cost in Hong Kong dollars 10 Hong Kong dollars, or 20 Hong Kong dollars?
What about the minimum Show wager cost?
Minimum Quinela wager cost?
Minimum Trifecta wager cost?


If possible, could you please use the following format when replying:

A) Xxxxxxxxxx.....

B) Xxxxxxxxxx.....

C) Xxxxxxxxxx....

D) Xxxxxxxxxx....

Thank you in advance!!

Last edited by Overkill; 04-24-2020 at 11:55 PM.
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Old 04-25-2020, 01:24 PM   #5
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A) Most ADW's will permit the lowest amount superfecta. A minimum .13 bet here would get you 1/10th of the HK posted payout

The example is a little far fetched, but I understand it. The simple answer is for any HK bet, move the decimal point over to left by one. Example: A horse paid $312.50 in HK on a $10 bet, so you get $31.20 for every $1.30 wager here.

So your example is $100,000 HK is paying $10,000 US

B) Pari mutuel pools take into account how much total money was wagered correctly into the pool and not per ticket. A $100,000 superfecta pool with a 20% takeout = $80,000 for payout to the public, and if there was $10 wagered correctly into the winning combo, then the super for every $1 ticket = $8,000 and the dime would pay $800

C) "Winning odds" = unofficial results in HK so when the board stops flashing and they announce "correct weight" then that's when the race is official

"dividends" is the official payouts, that is once the all clear is given. Very rarely do you see a DQ over there.

"winning odds" is the win odds when the windows closed and that's what you want to use.

D) All wagers in HK require $10 HK. No crazy different amounts like the US has, such as .10 / .20 / .50 / $1
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Old 04-26-2020, 11:59 PM   #6
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Thanks so much again, Mason, and...

if you don't mind, I still am not clear. Thanks so much for your patience. If you choose not to respond, I will understand. I have previously contacted the HK Jockey Club, but didn't really get a satisfactory reply.

I think you and I had a small miscommunication. My questions nowadays have to do with the pools and not so much converting from HK dollars to US dollars and vice-versa. I apologize for any confusion. And I realize the nature of these intricate topics probably lends itself better to a real-time conversation rather than email.

For the purposes of the following questions, let's just use HK dollars.

I understand a big benefit of Hong Kong racing is the huge size of the pools.

But at what point does betting more on, say, quinellas and trifectas, result in diminishing returns? Please excuse the probably unrealistic nature of the following example. I am choosing extremes to try to make my questions more understandable.

And please don't be offended when I use ALL CAPS. I am not trying to convey that I am yelling. I am just trying to convey emphasis.

a) Let's say I bet $20 Hong Kong on the 3-9 Quinella and $10 Hong Kong on the 3-9-2 Trifecta in the 4th race, and they hit.

b) (By the way, is the base or minimum quinella bet $2.60)?

c) (And is the base or minimum trifecta bet $1.30)?

d) What about when you indicated that one can make $.13 (US) Trifecta bet on a Hong Kong race?

e) (Didn't you say that in Hong Kong they don't allow funny, smaller bets like US tracks do like $.50 US bets, etc. and that $10.00 Hong Kong is the minimum bet? Or did you mean if you are actually IN Hong Kong they don't allow those funny, smaller bets?).

f) (By the way, did you say my example was far fetched because the payout I had hypothetically indicated was unrealistically high?).

Ok, back to the example I began in a) above. Let's say the official payout for the Quinella is listed as $200 Hong Kong, and the official payout for the Trifecta is listed as $1000 Hong Kong. So I, along with the many others with the winning Quinella and Trifecta tickets, collect my winnings. So far, so good.

g) Let's now instead assume I have tons of money, and I had bet $2,000 Hong Kong (instead of $20 Hong Kong) on the 3-9 Quinella and $1,000 (instead of $10 Hong Kong) on the 3-9-2 Trifecta, and they hit.

h) Because I had increased my Quinella wager by a factor of 100, I now collect $200,000 Hong Kong for the winning Quinella, and because I had increased my Trifecta wager also by a factor of 100, I now collect $100,000 Hong Kong for the winning Trifecta, correct?

i) But let's assume the impossible scenario wherein MY Quinella ticket was the ONLY winning Quinella ticket, and let's assume MY Trifecta ticket was the ONLY winning Trifecta ticket. In this impossible (bear with me please) scenario applied to a) above, I will receive more than just $200 Hong Kong for the Quinella (minus the track's take) and more than just $1000 Hong Kong for the Trifecta (minus the track's take) because there is nobody to split the pool with, correct? Or is the pool only comprised of my wagers?

j) When I apply this impossible scenario (wherein my tickets are the only winning tickets) to g) above, won't I receive LESS than if others had also won because I am the sole contributor to the winning pool? In other words, with the impossible scenario I am getting nowhere near proportionally larger (by a factor of 100) payouts when I make the bigger Quinella and Trifecta wagers, correct?

k) If j) above is true, how does one know what the tipping point - the point at which an increase in amount wagered fails to result in a proportional increase in payout - is?

l) Overall, though, it is better to make Quinella wagers on races with bigger Quinella pools and better to make Trifecta wagers on races with bigger Trifecta pools, correct?

m) If l) is true, HOW is it true because though there is more money in the bigger pools, don't you have to split winnings with likely MORE PEOPLE?

I apologize for the wordiness of the post. I am trying to be as clear as possible by attempting to eliminate any guessing on your part as to what I am saying.

If possible, please again reply in the following manner:

a) Xxxxxxx...

b) Xxxxxxx...

c) Xxxxxxx...

Etc.

Last edited by Overkill; 04-27-2020 at 12:03 AM.
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Old 04-27-2020, 04:47 AM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Overkill View Post
d) What about when you indicated that one can make $.13 (US) Trifecta bet on a Hong Kong race?.
Pretty sure that "." was a typo on his part, because earlier he referred to it as $13. Perhaps a $ sign was supposed to be there not the period. At least, that is my thought.
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Old 04-27-2020, 03:48 PM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Overkill View Post
if you don't mind, I still am not clear. Thanks so much for your patience.
You will never see a diminished return playing HK racing for the Quinella or Trifecta pools, no matter how much you bet. Why? The pools are too massive every race day.

A) We shall use this race result link below as the example.

https://racing.hkjc.com/racing/infor...se=HV&RaceNo=2

The finish order was 5,8,12 and the $10 Quinella paid $1,244.50 = $2,489 for a $20 play. The Trifecta paid $109,323 for a $10 bet. You still wouldn't see a big reduction of the Tri payout if you played it ten times. But the variation would be a matter of a few thousand bucks at best on the Trifecta, but that is due to huge longshots running 2nd and 3rd in the example given and the pool probably exceed (HK$) tens of millions.

B) The USA minimum is $1.30 for any wager

C) Correct

D) Certain ADW platforms do in fact let you play a thirteen cent bet (.13) and on our example from the link posted, the HK $ payout would have been $10,932.30 on the 5,8,12 combo. In wide open races, perhaps the smaller bet could cover a lot more runners looking for those random longshots.

E) Every wager at Sha Tin & Happy Valley is $10HK, no exceptions, for the pools offer to us.

F) With a full field of 12 - 14 horses I don't think you would take a stab at a $100 HK straight superfecta, but more importantly, I do not know of any ADW that allows superfecta wagering at this time. HK has extensive pools offered over there and we are missing out playing the biggest ones they offer.

G & H) Using your example, the Quinella bet was $2,000 HK divided by $10HK = 200 tickets and the payoff was $200 on the $10HK bet = $40,000 HK payout

The Trifecta bet was $1,000 HK divided by $10HK = 100 tickets and the payoff you gave was $1,000 per $10HK bet = $100,000 HK payout

Trifecta would pay $100,000 based on your example. (you had the Tri 10 times. $10 x 10 bets)

Remember the example given must reflect a $10HK payout and then we can breakdown the what if this and that scenario in a format that makes things much easier.

I) As you know that isn't possible, but let us use the Trifecta pool, due to the more combinations it takes to hit it. Assume there was $25 million HK in the Trifecta pool and the takeout is in fact 25%, so that means $20 million HK to payout from the Trifecta pool is up for grabs to the wagering public. If you are the only ticket with the winning combo and you could have played it at $1,000 HK, you still would receive the whole pool.

J) So in this case a $10HK vs $1,000HK bet - tickets works the same way in the I) example, but if others win with you, then yes your return would decrease. If two tickets at $10HK hit it, as in you and Jane Doe, then the return would pay $10 million HK which = the $20 million HK$ pool.

If you played it at $1,000HK and Jane Doe at $10HK then the payout would be $198,019 for every $10HK and that's because there are 101 winning combinations with the correct combination. You hold 100 of them and Jane is holding one, resulting in you getting back over $19 million HK$

K) It would only fail if you had the ONLY correct combo, no matter what size the bet, as pointed out in example I) & J)

L) Yes

M) Correct. But again, the pool size is so huge that a big bet will not make a dent in the pools, how much you have to split, that sort of thing.

Their ontrack program for 4/29 has some info you might like to read on regarding pools, which most we can not partake in.
https://racing.hkjc.com/racing/conte...tarter_all.pdf
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Old 04-28-2020, 11:37 PM   #9
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Thanks again, Mason, and...

aa) When searching for races with the biggest pools, do I look for a big "purse," or big "stakes," or is there somewhere I can directly access the pool size? What is the difference between purse and stakes with regard to dollar amounts? On the results page of the HK site is listed, for each race, something like "$1,500,000 Stewards Cup" or something like that. Is that the purse or the stakes? Is there a formula such as Stakes = Purse (amount in all the pools) minus the Tracks's take?

bb) Is drafting more of a factor in short (1000 m, 1200 m), middle (1600 m, 1650 m, 1800 m), or long (2000 m, 2200 m, 2400 m) distance races?

cc) Is a longshot more likely to win in short (1000 m, 1200 m), middle (1600 m, 1650 m, 1800 m), or long (2000 m, 2200 m, 2400 m) distance races?

dd) Is a longshot more likely to win on turf or all weather, or does it not matter?

ee) With all else being equal, is a longshot more likely to win in a Griffin race, a Class 1 race, a Class 2 race, a Class 3 race, a Class 4 race, a Class 5 race, or a race considered beyond Class 5? Or does Class not matter when it comes to longshots?

ff) For Hong Kong races, how much time is there typically between the posting of the final odds for a race and the cutoff when no more bets are allowed (via ADW, or OTB, or, like, Las Vegas - or is Las Vegas like an OTB?)? 5 minutes? 10 minutes?

gg) Does the term ADW refer to placing your bets through an online betting platform?

hh) In my state, online horse race betting is not legal. Is it Ok to drive to another state and use my internet-connected tablet to make wagers for Hong Kong? What does it cost to place bets via ADW ? Or can I go to an OTB to make wagers for Hong Kong? What does it cost to place bets via OTB?

ii) Forgive me, but I am still not getting the $10.00 HK ($1.30 US) Trifecta and the $1.00 HK ($0.13 US) Trifecta. I believe you say $10.00 HK is the minimum bet for all HK wagers, but didn't you also say that some platforms DO alllow the $1.00 HK ($0.13 US) Trifecta wager?

jj) And I am lost regarding betting big on a Quinella. In your example that you provided with the link, $1244.50 (HK) is for a $10.00 HK bet, but I need to 'fork over' $20.00 HK minimum for a Quinella bet, so I would receive $2489. But let's say instead of betting $20.00 HK, I instead bet $2,000! Because I increased my $20 minimum Quinela wager by a factor of 100, won't my payoff also proportionally rise by a factor of 100 - making what I would receive $248,900 HK ($2489 HK X 100 = $$248,900)?

Mason, thank you again for taking the time to answer these questions, if you so choose!!

Last edited by Overkill; 04-28-2020 at 11:50 PM. Reason: Needed to refer back to a previous post.
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Old 04-29-2020, 01:47 AM   #10
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Mason, thank you for all these explanations, I know they are helping a lot of people besides Overkill who also asked very good questions. A lot of people want to play HK but aren't clear about some of this stuff.

great topic!
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Old 04-29-2020, 03:17 AM   #11
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aa)every race has a large pool, probably the only races that might run smaller are griffins/large number of imports. live odds from hk https://bet.hkjc.com/racing/pages/odds_wp.aspx?lang=en. On the results page, thats the race value

bb)its a factor obviously from a science perpesctive, how much it is, can't tell you. But if a jockey is caught out wide with a reasonable to chance to get in, he'll get blasted by the stewards

cc)no data on that right now

dd)ST favs on turf just under 30%, ST AW 26.5%

ee)class 5, just like in NA, lower the class, the more variance there seems to be

ff)think you got it backwards, betting is open till the gates fly, and then the final odds cycle will go thru. In HK, with less than 5 MTP I think, odds cycles are every 15 seconds.

gg) yes

hh)most online adw's require you to be a resident of the state I believe, most OTBs arent open, even without covid impacts, due to races happening between midnight and 10am est

ii) you have to bet using the standard US rules so min bet is 1.00 usd and some bets might allow 10 cent increments, these amounts are converted to HKD if they are rolled into the HK pools just like Canadian dollars is converted when betting into US tracks or vice versa.
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Old 04-29-2020, 09:29 AM   #12
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Some various answers (perhaps some repeats):

1. minimum wager for US ADWs in all pools is US$1.30 (except XpressBet which is $0.13). You also receive 1.3 times the posted payout.

2. Have a live video feed running (e.g. rtn.tv or your ADW). All video is supplied by Roberts Communication, so generally the same latency to HK real-time for all ADWs. The current time (including seconds) is always displayed on screen, thus, calibrate it to your own computer clock (EST is currently 12 hours behind HK time). If you dare wait that late, you can often place a bet (if it is queued up or initiated via software API) with half the field loaded. You can get refreshing odds all the while, often each 10 seconds, depending on ADW. You get a 1-minute warning to expected off-time (red light flashes at the gate). They usually don't dawdle, unlike many North American tracks.

3. At a US ADW, you bet in US dollars. HK$ prices at HKJC.com are useful for reference, but you don't bet in HK$. Move the decimal 1 point to the left to find US$1 payouts. At US ADWs, many payouts are shown to $2, so divide by 2 to get the $1 payouts.

a) Example: 4/29 race 1 (Happy Valley) Quinella paid HK$253.00 (for $10HK), or US$25.30 for each US$1 bet. My ADW (AmWager) shows the Quinella payout as $50.60, which is the $2 payout. If you bet a winning 3-horse Quinella box (cost 3 combos x $1.30 = $3.60), you receive US$25.30 x 1.3 = US$32.89. If you bet a 10,000 multiple of $3.60, you receive 10,000 x 1.3 times the $1 $25.30 payout. That number of bet units will not reduce your payout. Maybe 100,000 units will ...

4. Re optimal bet sizing (before you start depressing your own odds):

a) given the large pool sizes in every pool, you should be so lucky to reduce the odds by your own bet!

b) today (4/29) first 4 race Win pools are: US$2.7 million US$3.1 million, US$2.7 million, US$2.2 million respectively. Quinella and Quinella Place (Omni) pools are even larger. Breakage is to $.05 so your maximum/optimal bet would be an amount which reduces the pools only by a few pennies covered by that breakage. Or - by an amount you don't mind sacrificing for getting a large wager down. Speculate on what that maximum amount might be, for different pools.

c) the Tierce (Trifecta) pool is the smallest pool, roughly a fifth the size of the Win pool

d) daily pool totals here: http://bet.hkjc.com/default.aspx?url...ng=en&dv=local (bottom of page). This data is not persistent, so capture it yourself for historical reference.

5. Available bets at US ADWs are: Win, Place (what we call Show), Quinella (first 2 finishers,any order), Omni, Trifecta, Trio (first 3 finishers, any order). Superfecta (Quartet) and multi-race wagers are not available outside Hong Kong (at least not available to North American ADWs).


6. I'm looking for a US ADW for you which accepts Missouri residents and carries Hong Kong. If I find one, I'll reply by PM.


Good luck!

Ted
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Last edited by Ted Craven; 04-29-2020 at 09:32 AM.
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Old 04-29-2020, 10:32 AM   #13
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Excellent write up Ted.

For Live Streaming I use

https://www.thoroughbrednews.com.au/...=livestreaming
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Old 04-29-2020, 11:03 AM   #14
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That's a good quality stream bobby, dead on with my RTN.tv stream. Bookmarking as a backup

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Old 04-29-2020, 12:01 PM   #15
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Overkill, please check your Private Messages for info on an online ADW accepting Missouri residents, carrying Hong Kong betting.

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