Does Accelerate now win HOY over Justify?

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by bello

How about posting once in a while without the snide insults.

saying an opinion is dumb is not an insult, well its an insult to the if your the opinion I suppose.

[bello]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

saying an opinion is dumb is not an insult, well its an insult to the if your the opinion I suppose.

I have no opinion on the subject. Saying an opinion is dumb is an insult and so many of his posts end in snide remarks about other posters. That is the only reason I actually looked at the post because I saw his name and said to myself, let me see his elitist know it all comment and lo and behold.....

[the little guy]

Originally Posted by bello

How about posting once in a while without the snide insults.

Don't be jealous, I'm sure you have a nominee.

[jimmyb]

I'm going with Accelerate. Won 4 of 5 unrestricted stakes races this year.

[bello]

Originally Posted by the little guy

Don't be jealous, I'm sure you have a nominee.

I actually appreciate the civil post back. I figured I would get my head handed to me. I really do not. I handicap mostly harness or minor league tracks don't get into HOY type debates as my knowledge is admittedly on the dumb side.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by Fager Fan

...the TC has now changed to where most all the good horses outside the Derby winner skip the Preakness.

This is a bit of an exaggeration. While one or two contenders may skip the Preakness to await the Belmont nowadays, it certainly isn't the Derby winner and a bunch of bad horses. The worst fields were 2008, 2014 and perhaps 2003. The Preakness might even draw in a top class runner that didn't make it into the Derby field (e.g., Rachel Alexandra, Red Bullet, Rock Hard Ten, Bernardini, First Dude, Collected, etc.).

At any rate, this year's Preakness didn't play out that way. Justify's main rival, juvenile champion Good Magic, wheeled back at Pimlico and took it to Justify right out of the gate.

Justify certainly didn't get to waltz around there the way Funny Cide, Big Brown, and California Chrome did, all of whom failed to win the Triple Crown.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by bello

I actually appreciate the civil post back. I figured I would get my head handed to me. I really do not. I handicap mostly harness or minor league tracks don't get into HOY type debates as my knowledge is admittedly on the dumb side.

"You're all winners!!!..."

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

This is a bit of an exaggeration. While one or two contenders may skip the Preakness to await the Belmont nowadays, it certainly isn't the Derby winner and a bunch of bad horses. The worst fields were 2008, 2014 and perhaps 2003. The Preakness might even draw in a top class runner that didn't make it into the Derby field (e.g., Rachel Alexandra, Red Bullet, Rock Hard Ten, Bernardini, First Dude, Collected, etc.).

At any rate, this year's Preakness didn't play out that way. Justify's main rival, juvenile champion Good Magic, wheeled back at Pimlico and took it to Justify right out of the gate.

Justify certainly didn't get to waltz around there the way Funny Cide, Big Brown, and California Chrome did, all of whom failed to win the Triple Crown.

I think an interesting question is if Justify would have held his form the back half of the year.

While horses can go off form, some of Bafferts have dang near been eased in some races after looking invincible during stretches of the year.

If he didnt have any issues I think Justify would have had no issue beating Accelerate given normal development and if he stayed in form. That does not make him HOY, its just an opinion of overall quality.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

I think an interesting question is if Justify would have held his form the back half of the year.

Odds were against it. That concentrated campaign of 6 races in 111 days (as opposed to the 7 races in ~270 races enjoyed by Accelerate) is nothing to shake a stick at in this day and age.

Furthermore, a horse's form is intimately tied to its physical condition. Justify had not one issue but multiple. So that high concentration of racing and training to reach and complete the Triple Crown couldn't have done the colt any favors. I would presume if Baffert had any other prospect (McKinzie, Solomini) in good enough shape for the classics, Justify would have had a campaign that paralleled Arrogate or West Coast.

Historically, Baffert has not fared well with his 3yos that campaign from the beginning to the end of their sophomore season. Some have indeed made the attempt, but clearly tailed off (e.g., Silverbulletday, War Emblem, General Challenge). Others have fallen apart and been retired (e.g., Point Given, Cavonnier) before the fall. When he can race sparingly the latter half of the season he does better (e.g., American Pharoah, Lookin At Lucky).

Justify's profile fits more with the likes of fragile, speed merchants Congaree and Bodemeister. Both those were fried by July of their 3yo seasons (and neither started in the Belmont Stakes).

If he didnt have any issues I think Justify would have had no issue beating Accelerate given normal development and if he stayed in form. That does not make him HOY, its just an opinion of overall quality.

It's probably futile to think of a hypothetical where Justify had no physical issues. Instead, it's more realistic to consider what Justify would have done had he been allowed to come back as a 4yo.

Part of what separates Bob Baffert from other 3yo classic trainers like Lukas, Zito, and Pletcher is that when given leeway, Baffert will take the opportunity to stop completely on a horse. Note the subsequent careers of Silver Charm, Congaree, Real Quiet, Collected, and Game On Dude...all of whom got 6 months off or more after starting in the classics.

There's no reason to think that Justify wouldn't have emulated or eclipsed them as older horses in 2019.

[Buckeye]

Omaha won the Triple Crown without being named HOY.

Discovery Racing Career

Discovery was owned by Adolphe Pons of Country Life Farm in Bel Air, Maryland, who raced him at age two with limited success, winning only two of thirteen starts and being beaten in several races by future Hall of Famer Cavalcade. Purchased for $25,000 by Alfred G. Vanderbilt II's Sagamore Farm, Discovery raced one more time in 1933, finishing second.

At age three, Discovery's racing season was marked by his continuing rivalry with Cavalcade. He finished second to Cavalcade in the 1934 Kentucky Derby and third to High Quest and Cavalcade in the Preakness Stakes. Both horses skipped the Belmont Stakes. Discovery went on to win the first of three consecutive Brooklyn and Whitney Handicaps (both under higher and higher weights), and set a world record time for one mile and three-sixteenths in the Rhode Island Handicap at Narragansett Park.[4]

In 1935, Discovery was the dominant horse in the United States, and one of the most notable things about him was his ability to carry great weight. Running under an average of 131 pounds, the four-year-old won eleven of nineteen races and has been retrospectively regarded as the U.S. Champion Handicap horse and Horse of the Year for 1935. Although there was no formal award, Discovery was recognized in contemporary sources as the "top stake horse" of the year.[5] In the Merchants' and Citizens' Handicap, he carried 139 pounds to victory in August before a crowd of 25,000 including the Governors of New York and Pennsylvania.[6] For these feats, he was called the great weight carrier, or the "Iron Horse." The fact that Discovery was retrospectively named Horse of the Year in 1935 is unusual as Omaha won the Triple Crown in that year. This was the only time that a Triple Crown winner has been failed to be retrospectively recognised as Horse of the Year.

Racing at age 5, Discovery won his third Brooklyn and Whitney Handicaps. His achievements were formally recognized when he was the first horse to be voted U.S. Champion Handicap horse.[7] His win in the Whitney was described by The New York Times as "the most decisive victory to be scored in a big American stake in many years".[8]
Stud record
Retired to stud at Vanderbilt's Sagamore Farm in rural Baltimore County, Maryland at the end of the 1936 racing season, over the course of a 21-year stallion career, Discovery sired just 25 graded stakes race winners. But it was through his daughters that Discovery left his legacy: they produced Hall of Fame Champions Native Dancer, Bold Ruler, and Bed o'Roses, as well as the multiple stakes winning and champion Intentionally and Preakness Stakes winner Hasty Road. Native Dancer produced Raise a Native, who sired the stallion Mr. Prospector; Dan Cupid, who sired Sea Bird II; Shenanigans, who produced Ruffian; Natalma, who produced Northern Dancer; et al. Discovery was inducted into the U.S. Racing Hall of Fame in 1969.

As you can see, there is NO comparison between what happened in 1935 and today.

I rest my case.

[castaway01]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

The way you stay undefeated is by not running against anyone.

I will take Citation's record, with his losses, over Justify's any day of the week.

He won the Derby, Preakness, and Belmont, races thousands of horses were gunning for. He beat who ran. Your argument couldn't be any weaker. You can't win the Triple Crown by ducking anyone.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by castaway01

He won the Derby, Preakness, and Belmont, races thousands of horses were gunning for. He beat who ran. Your argument couldn't be any weaker. You can't win the Triple Crown by ducking anyone.

If this is correct, how come only one previous TC winner retired right after winning it? After all, there's nothing else to accomplish, right? All the top horses run in the TC.

[ultracapper]

Originally Posted by Fager Fan

We do seem to be forgetting how things shook out for the Belmont, and also how the TC has now changed to where most all the good horses outside the Derby winner skip the Preakness. I also find it interesting that we’ve gotten 2 TC winners after CD implemented a new system which has kept out some of the cheaper speed. Any correlation?

I admit it. Not a fan. To me, Justify winning tarnished the TC, showing how it doesn’t take a truly exceptional horse to win it. AP was a far better horse.

Something that wasn't accomplished for 30whatever years (many tried, but none succeeded) and now it doesn't take anything special to get it done.

I wanted to type more, but I just don't know what to say.


Edit: Was every previous winner exceptional? Some TC winners were better than others. Everybody is good with that.


Again, I'm stuck. I want to type more, but I'm just kind of like.........WHAT!!!

Edit2: Tarnished? Really? 35 years or whatever it was, and now, tarnished? Really?

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by ultracapper

Something that wasn't accomplished for 30whatever years (many tried, but none succeeded) and now it doesn't take anything special to get it done.

I wanted to type more, but I just don't know what to say.

They should change the spacing for the Belmont to 2 weeks and make it 2 miles. It's too easy now.

[ultracapper]

Edit3: The KD was this horse's 4th race in like 9 weeks. I mean, what Gr1 level horse does that anymore? The freaking animal is quite exceptional when you're not arguing an agenda.