PREAKNESS FUTURE BETS

[zico20]

It is debuting this year and has already begun. While most already know what I am going to say for those who are placing a bet, some may not. Todd Pletcher doesn't run horses back in the Preakness unless they win the Kentucky Derby. His two winners, Super Saver and Always Dreaming both ran 8th in the Preakness. He simply doesn't focus on the Preakness with Derby runners.

Pletcher has Forte, Tapit Trice, and Kingsbarns. We know Forte will probably be the favorite and the other two will get some play. Tossing these three is the smart bet. Then you also have to look at other trainers who will skip the Preakness unless they win the Derby. For those who are going to play the Preakness future the bet should be on Mage, lightly raced and should run great in the Derby and come back in two weeks even if he doesn't win the Derby.

Here is the list!

https://www.horseracingnation.com/ne...ffer_value_123

[Michael]

Bris PPs
https://production-picks-uploads.s3....ture-Wager.pdf

[f2tornado]

I'll pick a horse or two that is skipping the Derby and appears to be an overlay, otherwise this seems like a fool's errand, and I like future wagers.

[Bennie]

New faces usually don't win the Preakness. With that thought, I might take all others if the odds remain over 10-1 in case Baffert shows up. The other thought is if you really think you have the derby winner, then you might get some value now because they will probably be the chalk come Preakness.
And as Zico said, who will pass and who will run following the derby should they not win? And will the Japanese run back so soon even if they win? Are they just looking to win the Derby or will they also seek a shot at the Triple Crown?
I'll wait until late tomorrow to see what the odds are and maybe look at Tapit Trice if he is around 6-1 or better (my current top derby choice) , Practical Move if around 15-1 and as stated prior, all others if around 15-1. If those odds are not available, I will pass.

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Would have wagered Early Voting last year heavy when he skipped the Derby.

Not sure he would have been higher than the 5/1 odds at post.

Can't see any horse with any talent skipping. A new shooter would be the Preakness play on future odds.

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Originally Posted by Bennie

New faces usually don't win the Preakness. With that thought, I might take all others if the odds remain over 10-1 in case Baffert shows up. The other thought is if you really think you have the derby winner, then you might get some value now because they will probably be the chalk come Preakness.
And as Zico said, who will pass and who will run following the derby should they not win? And will the Japanese run back so soon even if they win? Are they just looking to win the Derby or will they also seek a shot at the Triple Crown?
I'll wait until late tomorrow to see what the odds are and maybe look at Tapit Trice if he is around 6-1 or better (my current top derby choice) , Practical Move if around 15-1 and as stated prior, all others if around 15-1. If those odds are not available, I will pass.

Really? Since 2000 here are the new shooters that won:

Red Bullet
Bernaradini
Cloud Computing
Swiss Skydiver
Early Voting

That is 1/3rd of the winnners. A much better percentage than chalk in the Preakness.

[Bennie]

To be fair, Barbaro got injured in 2006 and Rich Strike did not run in the Preakness and 5 out of 22 is less than 1/3. I'd rather side with 17 of 22 that ran in the derby.

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Originally Posted by Bennie

To be fair, Barbaro got injured in 2006 and Rich Strike did not run in the Preakness and 5 out of 22 is less than 1/3. I'd rather side with 17 of 22 that ran in the derby.

If you like dutch betting 5/2 to 8/1 horses in groups of 5, have at it.

[sovereign]

Wow. They are trying to squeeze every penny out of the bettors. Imagine they do this for the Breeders Cup?

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by sovereign

Wow. They are trying to squeeze every penny out of the bettors. Imagine they do this for the Breeders Cup?

They did do it last year for the Classic. You could have got 5/2 on Flightline in first pool. I took the 4/5 in second pool which seemed silly but knew he was likely 2/5 chalk on race day. I still bet him at Keeneland that day just for the $2 tickets.

A few years back they had Juvenile and Classic futures. Wouldn't mind if they keep those going.

[Bennie]

Who said dutch betting groups of 5 between 5/2 and 8-1? I said Tapit at 6/1 or better and maybe 2 others with a minimum of 15/1. If Tapit wins the Derby, you think you'll get 6/1 or better in the Preakness? And have I ever made negative comments about the way you play? Didn't think so.

[Aerocraft67]

Blazing Sevens skipped the Derby for the Preakness, 20-1. Not a screaming bargain, but maybe a bit better than what you'll get on the day?

[BarchCapper]

Originally Posted by PalaceOfFortLarned

Really? Since 2000 here are the new shooters that won:

Red Bullet
Bernaradini
Cloud Computing
Swiss Skydiver
Early Voting

That is 1/3rd of the winnners. A much better percentage than chalk in the Preakness.

2000-2022 = 23 runnings of Preakness, not 15.

Still, I'm not tossing a new shooter out of hand.

[f2tornado]

I threw some money on Mandarin. Currently 17-1 and would be one of the Derby chalks if he had a longer nose.

[Bennie]

I'm waiting until next week to make sure who makes the final derby field and to have a better idea of the final odds. In case some have not read, I believe the pool continues right up to 1 hour before the Derby goes off. Things can change a lot in a week.