S&P Prediction

[AltonKelsey]

Surprised you wait till the 4:15 close. My guess is you'd be better with the 4pm close , unless your backtest proves otherwise.

[PaceAdvantage]

I tested this actually...and I was better off waiting until the last possible minute...but it wasn't a huge difference either way.

[PaceAdvantage]

Another thing I tested that kind of surprised me....Tue-Thur were the most profitable trading days by far...with Wed & Thu being the most profitable days.

Mondays and Fridays weren't nearly as profitable (but still profitable overall).

I can understand Friday...but Monday kind of surprised me for some reason.

[highnote]

I can't find my post from last July of 2016, but I predicted the market would rise by up to 15% by January 2017.

I made that same prediction a few years earlier. Both times I hit the target price, but it took about 6 months longer than I thought it would.

In July of 2016 I predicted S&P of 2457 by January 2017.

S&P closed at 2453.46 today -- June 20, 2017. That's pretty close to my prediction.

Unfortunately, I don't have a new target because there is a higher probability that we are near the top now than the probability of 6 months ago. I'm still long, but hedged.

Economists say it takes 18 to 36 months for the money from Quantitative Easing to start affecting the economy. QEII wrapped out near the end of Obama's second term. We are starting to see good job numbers. The U.S. started to experience a deep recession at the end of Bush's term and it carried over into Obama's term. Drastic measures were taken and disaster in the form of a depression, seems to have been avoided.

Given the momentum in the market last summer that continues today and all the money in the market from QEII, coupled with relatively low interest rates, and Trump's pro-business agenda, it is not surprising that we are starting to see good job numbers which should translate into good corporate earnings. The market seems headed higher with a greater probability than heading lower.

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by highnote

I can't find my post from last July of 2016, but I predicted the market would rise by up to 15% by January 2017.

I made that same prediction a few years earlier. Both times I hit the target price, but it took about 6 months longer than I thought it would.

In July of 2016 I predicted S&P of 2457 by January 2017.

S&P closed at 2453.46 today -- June 20, 2017. That's pretty close to my prediction.

Unfortunately, I don't have a new target because there is a higher probability that we are near the top now than the probability of 6 months ago. I'm still long, but hedged.

Economists say it takes 18 to 36 months for the money from Quantitative Easing to start affecting the economy. QEII wrapped out near the end of Obama's second term. We are starting to see good job numbers. The U.S. started to experience a deep recession at the end of Bush's term and it carried over into Obama's term. Drastic measures were taken and disaster in the form of a depression, seems to have been avoided.

Given the momentum in the market last summer that continues today and all the money in the market from QEII, coupled with relatively low interest rates, and Trump's pro-business agenda, it is not surprising that we are starting to see good job numbers which should translate into good corporate earnings. The market seems headed higher with a greater probability than heading lower.

these large company's were borrowing money at very cheap rates and used it to buy back their shares. less shares mean higher prices for the still existing ones. it was very smart of the large corporations to take advantage of the low rates. but now some company's will be up to their eyeballs in debt and should the interest rates happen to increase they might be in jeopardy of not being able to service the debt. if that does happen they might have to dilute their shares and do secondary offerings. but also some of these company's became ultra monsters like Amazon, Google, Apple and lots of other large ones and they may not have a problem paying back no matter how high the rates may go.

its just interesting how the markets went up so high and there really isn't to much fundamentally that will drag it down for now outside of the unknown which always shows up at some point of time.

[highnote]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

these large company's were borrowing money at very cheap rates and used it to buy back their shares. less shares mean higher prices for the still existing ones. it was very smart of the large corporations to take advantage of the low rates. but now some company's will be up to their eyeballs in debt and should the interest rates happen to increase they might be in jeopardy of not being able to service the debt. if that does happen they might have to dilute their shares and do secondary offerings. but also some of these company's became ultra monsters like Amazon, Google, Apple and lots of other large ones and they may not have a problem paying back no matter how high the rates may go.

its just interesting how the markets went up so high and there really isn't to much fundamentally that will drag it down for now outside of the unknown which always shows up at some point of time.

Another factor is that many companies don't pay out as much in dividends the way they used to. This money has to be put to work. If it is plowed back into the company this will increase the price of shares.

I don't know to what extent not paying dividends increase the share price, but I do know it has to be greater than zero if the company is at the very least making some profit.

[lamboguy]

Amazon just took over Whole Foods, it looked like they paid a lot but to them it doesn't make any difference. they will figure out how to market the food better, increase their margins and knock out other food stores. Whole Foods might control 3% of the total market, Amazon will get it up to 10% somehow.

any business that has to compete with Amazon is in hot water. for the first time last week i ordered something from Amazon other than a book because they were the only place that i could find the product that i wanted. they couldn't give me an exact shipping date but promised me that i will have it between July 15 and August 1. no place else wanted to take the order.

[PaceAdvantage]

Went long around 10am @ 2446.25
Stop @ 2437

Down about 2 points as I type this...so it's not redboarding at the moment...

[barn32]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

Amazon just took over Whole Foods, it looked like they paid a lot but to them it doesn't make any difference. they will figure out how to market the food better, increase their margins and knock out other food stores. Whole Foods might control 3% of the total market, Amazon will get it up to 10% somehow.

any business that has to compete with Amazon is in hot water. for the first time last week i ordered something from Amazon other than a book because they were the only place that i could find the product that i wanted. they couldn't give me an exact shipping date but promised me that i will have it between July 15 and August 1. no place else wanted to take the order.

AMZN picked up the Whole Foods distribution network which they were going to have to build anyway. AMZN paid ~13.6 billon for WFM, and the analysis I saw said they would have to lay out about 6 billion to build their own distribution network, so in essence they got WFM for 6 billion.

It's win/win for AMZN. Their stock went up on the takeover because it's such an all around big positive for them, and it's usually the other way around.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Went long around 10am @ 2446.25
Stop @ 2437

Down about 2 points as I type this...so it's not redboarding at the moment...

And just like that this trade is kaput...

Got stopped out for a loss of 9.25 points...ouch!

[PaceAdvantage]

Just went long @ 2431.25 stop @ 2421.50

[PaceAdvantage]

Stop hit @ 2426.50 for a loss of 4.75 points

[AltonKelsey]

Nice to see you moved your stop, but for the thousands following along, how would they know. It's like Nitro's Tote action plays !

What do you do, trail 10 points when it moves higher?

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by AltonKelsey

Nice to see you moved your stop, but for the thousands following along, how would they know. It's like Nitro's Tote action plays !

What do you do, trail 10 points when it moves higher?

Yeah, I know...Nitro always gives a detailed account of how much he made or lost...

Sorry I wasn't posting my trailing stop in real time.

[incoming]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Yeah, I know...Nitro always gives a detailed account of how much he made or lost...

Sorry I wasn't posting my trailing stop in real time.

curious...are you using a trailing stop or a manual stop.