Conduit Mare & Triads

[garywpt]

Does anyone have the figures for Derby. Someone posted about winning and losing the derby with certain figures and has been a winning trend over many many years but I cant find the #s or the exact trend. any help appreciated

[f2tornado]

I’m not a triads expert but can comment on the conduit mare angle. Forte, Two Phil’s, Mage, Confidence Game, Continuar, and Jace’s Road all have one of the Stanley Caris designated conduit mates in tail female line.

Forte has the 1-x Doxa line that has produced a lot of Derby winners. He’s going to be a very tough player if he shows up more comfortable than in Florida.

[Julz]

You can add Raise Cain to the conduit profile. He carry’s Pretty Polly in tail female.

As far as the conduit mare profile-I know exactly who you were talking about and I was actually looking for the same thing. I couldn’t locate it. It had something to do with the 4th number in the profile. If I remember correctly, it was that no derby runner ran 1st or 2nd with that specific number under 3. What his point was….that the best essential quality would do that year was finish 3rd or 4th, and he was correct. This year if my memory serves me correctly, Tapit Trice has a “2”. His name on here was Bisket. We traded emails periodically and he was always more than happy to share his information.

[Julz]

Edit to my previous post-it was not Tapit Trice, it was Forte with only a”1” in the fourth wing of the conduit mare profile. So “IF” I remember his research correctly, the best Forte would do, based off of past history, would be no better than 3rd or 4th.

[f2tornado]

Are you referring to Solid points in the dosage profile? There’s no shortage of recent winners with 0 or 1 there. Tapit Trice has 32 total points which is a nice number and probably one of the top numbers in the field, if not the top. Not one I fear distance with. I fear lack of early foot but expect Saez will have him more forwardly placed provided he gets a clean break.

[Julz]

First thing-I made a mistake with Tapit Trice. It was Forte who I meant to reference. It wasn’t the dosage that I was referring to. I know what you’re talking about and the total dosage points in which you are 100% correct. The angle from the former member Bisket was specifically targeting conduit mare profile, which is different than the dosage profile. You would need a pedigree subscription for this. The profile is specific only to the tail female. Again this was his thing, but he looked back about 40 years I think? He found that in the 4th wing, there was never a horse who finished first or second with the 4th number in the frofile “2” or lower. Here is Forte’s CMP:

Forte Conduit Mare Profile = 11-2-5-1-11

There’s that “1” in the 4th wing of the profile. This is different than the dosage profile you correctly described. Again, this wasn’t my research, I was just trying to answer Gary’s question. It is interesting though.

[garywpt]

Originally Posted by Julz

First thing-I made a mistake with Tapit Trice. It was Forte who I meant to reference. It wasn’t the dosage that I was referring to. I know what you’re talking about and the total dosage points in which you are 100% correct. The angle from the former member Bisket was specifically targeting conduit mare profile, which is different than the dosage profile. You would need a pedigree subscription for this. The profile is specific only to the tail female. Again this was his thing, but he looked back about 40 years I think? He found that in the 4th wing, there was never a horse who finished first or second with the 4th number in the frofile “2” or lower. Here is Forte’s CMP:

Forte Conduit Mare Profile = 11-2-5-1-11

There’s that “1” in the 4th wing of the profile. This is different than the dosage profile you correctly described. Again, this wasn’t my research, I was just trying to answer Gary’s question. It is interesting though.

Yes Julz thats what I was looking for. Not only Essential but Rock Your World was the same thing the year before. And if i remember it was only 1 winner in 40 years with that specific profile. Thanks

[Julz]

I do remember rock your world now. Off the top of my head I just remembered the Essential Quality thing. I tried to search his posts in this site and some did come up, but it wasn’t related to what we are talking about. I’ll keep searching and try to see if you can find anything. I can look up and provide the numbers, I just need the criteria he used.

[Bennie]

Check for posts by The Biscuit. He wrote some about the conduit mare back in 2021 I believe. Don't recall if he posted last year.

[Bennie]

Also Longshot posted. Go back to posts on 4/16/2021

[Julz]

Thanks Bennie! I guess I had the name spelled wrong. In any event, once I find, I’ll look at the numbers and post

[Bennie]

You're welcome. looking forward to your posting.

[Julz]

Since 1980 4 Horses out 41 have Won Derby with More Speed than Stamina in the Conduit Mare Profile

Authentic / 2020 Conduit Mare Profile = 4-7-9-7-3 Speed = 11 Stamina = 10 Index = 1.09 Triads = 20-23-19
Charismatic / 1999 Conduit Mare Profile = 7-7-3-5-7 Speed = 14 Stamina = 12 Index = 1.09 Triads = 17-15-15
Ferdinand / 1986 Conduit Mare Profile = 9-4-5-5-7 Speed = 13 Stamina = 12 Index = 1.13 Triads = 18-14-17
Spend A Buck / 1985 Conduit Mare Profile = 9-5-6-4-9 Speed = 14 Stamina = 13 Index = 1.04 Triads = 20-15-19

FORTE Speed = 13 Stamina = 12

TAPIT TRICE Speed = 16 Stamina = 14

ROCKET CAN Speed = 12 Stamina = 10

SUN THUNDER Speed = 14 Stamina = 11

CYCLONE Speed = 13 Stamina = 11

[Julz]

2nd Place Finishers / 4 out 41 had more speed than stamina in cmp



Tiz The Law / 2020 Conduit Mare Profile = 7-6-3-7-4 Speed = 13 Stamina = 11 Index = 1.28 Triads = 16-16-14
Prairie Bayou / 1993 Conduit Mare Profile = 8-5-3-6-5 Speed = 13 Stamina = 11 Index = 1.26 Triads = 16-14-14
Bet Twice / 1987 Conduit Mare Profile = 6-8-3-6-6 Speed = 14 Stamina = 12 Index = 1.10 Triads = 17-17-15
Coax Me Chad / 1984 Conduit Mare Profile = 8-8-2-8-4 Speed = 16 Stamina = 12 Index = 1.44 Triads = 18-18-14

[f2tornado]

Okay, 4 out 41 starters were winners or ~10% yet they comprise only about 5% of all Derby starters. That's actually a positive impact value near 2.00. If we expand to the exacta then it's approaching 20%. Maybe I should box the snot out of Forte and Tapit.