Another catastrophic Baffert Breakdown

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by iamt

I tried a few other things and all I have managed is one poster on Twitter consistently commenting about it.

A lot of people treat twitter posts as gospel...then there's those of us who know better

[iamt]

He does actually look to be correct about it, but to say it was readily public knowledge was a bit of a stretch.

[Jeff P]

Bloodhorse.com | Frank Angst | Nov 12 2019
Comparing Equine Injury Rates Suggests U.S. Can Improve:
https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-rac...-s-can-improve

BloodHorse compares equine safety numbers in U.S. to Britain, Japan, and Hong Kong.

Based on numbers from The Jockey Club Equine Injury Database in the U.S., the British Horseracing Authority, the Hong Kong Jockey Club, and the Japan Racing Association, the U.S. rates of equine deaths during racing are higher than Great Britain and Japan, and much higher than Hong Kong's rate. Hong Kong is far and away the lowest among these four jurisdictions.

Britain and Japan provided detailed total numbers as well as numbers broken out by surface. The HKJC provided a single rate for 2014-2018 as well as its 2018 rate, both of which were 0.6 per 1,000 starts.

It's worth noting that equine deaths during racing are rare in all four countries. For instance in Hong Kong, 99.94% of the starts are completed without such an incident. In the U.S. for the past five years on all surfaces, 99.83% of starts do not see such an incident.

When looking at such rare events, BloodHorse decided to examine the past five full years for which data was available to attempt to come up with meaningful numbers for comparison. As the 2019 numbers are not complete, BloodHorse examined the full years of 2014-2018.

For those five full years, the rate of such incidents in the U.S. was 1.67 per 1,000 starts, which is nearly three times higher than the 0.6 per 1,000 starts rate reported by the Hong Kong Jockey Club for those years. As noted, Hong Kong is far and away the safest among the four counties examined.

Still, the U.S. rate for the past five years also is 85% higher than the 0.91 per 1,000 starts rate reported by Great Britain in flat races; and 49% higher than the 1.12 rate for those years in Japan.

Fyi, US fatality rates have come down a bit since the above Blood horse article was published in November, 2019.


Thorougbhred Daily News | Bill Finley | 03-20-2023
Rate Of Fatal Injuries Lowest On Database Record:
https://www.thoroughbreddailynews.co...tabase-record/

The rate of fatal injuries in 2022 was 1.25 horses per 1,000 starts, a 10.1% decrease from 2021 when there were 1.39 fatalities per 1,000 starts according to figures compiled by the Equine Injury Database (EID) and released Monday by The Jockey Club (TJC). It was the lowest number since the EID began covering the fatality rate in 2009, when the figure was 2.00 horses per 1,000 starts.

“The data shows that since 2009, the risk of fatal injury during racing has declined by 37.5%, which is statistically significant,” said professor Tim Parkin of the University of Glasgow, who has consulted on the EID since its inception. “The overall downward trends are testament to the benefits of an evidence-based approach to safety, which is only possible thanks to the EID.”

Since 2018, the rate of fatal injury has dropped from 1.68 to 1.25, a decline of 25.6%. The 2022 numbers marked the fourth straight year that the risk of fatal injury has fallen.

That said, at 1.25 fatalities per 1,000 starts for 2022, the US still lags behind Hong Kong's fatality rate by a wide margin.


-jp

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[Nitro]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I've seen stats on breakdowns at the track level and surface level, but if they don't already, they should be keeping stats that include every horse's entire vet record (drugs, treatments, surgeries etc..) , age and sex, number of career starts, trainer, entire workout record, PPs, surface (s) the horse raced on etc.. and breakdowns.

Everything is data driven these days, but I'm going to guess this industry doesn't have good enough data to find all the patterns that can then be addressed to reduce the number of occurrences.

There almost has to be some relationship between age and number of starts and a horse accumulating injuries, declining, and breaking down.

If the data was very clear to everyone in the industry and to the public/press, some ways to reduce injuries could be discussed and found.

Its unfortunate that you don’t play Hong Kong because your concerns and everything you mentioned about the complete data of a horse’s medical history is available and updated on a regular basis. Yes, and like all the other handicapping data there, it’s all free to anyone visiting the HK Jockey Club Website. As far as I’m concerned, their entire product offers complete transparency as a means to provide the integrity that their patrons want and deserve.

Stateside racing fans warrant the same rigorous treatment. There are many obvious reasons why this hasn’t happened up until now. It may never happen because maintaining the status quo is paramount in the minds of many in the local racing jurisdictions.

BTW it’s not unusual to see sound older horses in their 8th and 9th year running remarkably well in HK even after having raced for many prior seasons. The HK game is all about racing just for the sake of racing without any consideration given to breeding.
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[iamt]

Originally Posted by Nitro

Its unfortunate that you don’t play Hong Kong because your concerns and everything you mentioned about the complete data of a horse’s medical history is available and updated on a regular basis. Yes, and like all the other handicapping data there, it’s all free to anyone visiting the HK Jockey Club Website. As far as I’m concerned, their entire product offers complete transparency as a means to provide the integrity that their patrons want and deserve.

Stateside racing fans warrant the same rigorous treatment. There are many obvious reasons why this hasn’t happened up until now. It may never happen because maintaining the status quo is paramount in the minds of many in the local racing jurisdictions.

BTW it’s not unusual to see sound older horses in their 8th and 9th year running remarkably well in HK even after having raced for many prior seasons. The HK game is all about racing just for the sake of racing without any consideration given to breeding.
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So does everyone knowing a horse shouldn't be allowed to run before it breaks down actually make it better?

https://www.anzbloodstocknews.com/am...ction-process/

[Andy Asaro]

Twitter

[castaway01]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

I read a study some years ago that was done on horses who had catastrophic racing injuries. It was discovered that, in something like 80% of the cases, the final fatal injury had occurred exactly on the same spot of the limb where past trauma had already existed at a prior time. No matter how you slice it, this suggests that a prior injury existed which had not been given enough time to heal...and this is something that's hard to accept even if we are avid horseplayers.

Don't bring facts into this argument, c'mon.

[Redboard]

Originally Posted by Nitro

Its unfortunate that you don’t play Hong Kong because your concerns and everything you mentioned about the complete data of a horse’s medical history is available and updated on a regular basis. Yes, and like all the other handicapping data there, it’s all free to anyone visiting the HK Jockey Club Website. As far as I’m concerned, their entire product offers complete transparency as a means to provide the integrity that their patrons want and deserve.

Stateside racing fans warrant the same rigorous treatment. There are many obvious reasons why this hasn’t happened up until now. It may never happen because maintaining the status quo is paramount in the minds of many in the local racing jurisdictions.

BTW it’s not unusual to see sound older horses in their 8th and 9th year running remarkably well in HK even after having raced for many prior seasons. The HK game is all about racing just for the sake of racing without any consideration given to breeding.
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Hong Kong tracks do not publish their breakdown statistics.

[Robert Fischer]

Everyone makes some good points.

let's keep it simple and rational. In the shadow of tragedy.



another horse got killed by a mountain lion today.

he was off a little in the left hind hoof and out there limping on the plains and got eaten. CATastrophic.

The mountain lion needed the nourishment so I don't know what the fuck to blame in this situation.


some say it's nature. That horses are relatively fragile and that mountain lions play a role in the circle of life which actually strengthens the breed of wild horse.

Some say it's Baffert's fault. Others say they would be cool if the mountain lion had simply had a female front trainer with a nice family.

and ANOTHER stallion had a catastrophic concussion today in a mating fight with a dominant stallion. Why does Chadstallion need a harem of three mares, while the poor runt just wanted some love? He never had a chance. The chadstallion is probably juiced. Why in fucks name wouldn't he be?
They don't test for the juice, all they can see is elevated levels his blood, thyroid, “miRNA signature” , ego, awful boring creative writing humor, etc...
....
those BIOMARKERS may be absurdly elevated beyond natural genetic potential, but it's not like those can be counted against a chadstallion or something. Chadstallion is just a stud or has a beneficial mutation, or a billion dollar owner who sprinkles enough Ammonium Nitrate to keep the plains thriving. Yes that billionaire owner looks an awful lot like a mountain lion, but he's a class cat. ahem, A class act.

Listen, Total Preakness handle was down 16% from 2022.
I blame the liberals and the conservatives and the centrists. I blame the economy. Joe Biden and the tide is going in and out and it's been heating up here since March. Fucking Dominoes is pushing 'tater tots' Fuck!!! and we missed out on Forte because they let a hotwalker who looks like an extra on "Breaking Bad" work their million dollar racehorse and the bastard was clearly high on a seldom prescribed NSAID and proceeded to 'piss' all over the feed again, and Bob sorry, "Robert A. Baffert" was too scared to run his Arabian Lion and STILL won the honor of a presentation next to a national treasure (The Woodlawn Vase).
priceless
and there were two less horses entered in the race, and statistical variance.

pray for Jimmy Barnes. Pray that I never again exceed two coffees. Amen.

[Brass Hat]

This is what Joe Drape wrote in the NY Times the Sunday after the Preakness:

"It was the kind of afternoon that makes many Americans wonder how long America’s oldest sport can continue to have its social license renewed."

The future of the sport will not be determined by fans of the sport but those outside the sport. Every breakdown during the few days that the average person pays attention to horse racing sheds a bad light on the sport, even if a racing fan can explain why the horse was injured during a bad trip. The public doesn't know enough about the sport to understand that.

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by iamt

So does everyone knowing a horse shouldn't be allowed to run before it breaks down actually make it better?

In terms of “everyone”, I’m not sure which racing jurisdictions you’re referring to.
I do know that in Hong Kong if an animal has been laid off for medicinal or any other reason for a length of time, they have specific rules in place.
They don’t arbitrarily just let a trainer enter this type of horse in a race. Their rules demand that before a horse can be entered it must run in what they call "trials" to prove its soundness. In my mind its just another means of protecting their customers from betting money on horses with potential maladies. Perhaps its also one of the primary reasons why HK racing has the best worldwide record for the fewest racetrack breakdown fatalities.

Originally Posted by Redboard

Hong Kong tracks do not publish their breakdown statistics.

Those statistics must be published somewhere otherwise how in the world would organizations like Bloodhorse be able to produce their findings (as mentioned by Jeff P in Post #63 above).

Personally, I would think that posting the ongoing medical history on every horse is a far more proactive approach to keeping their patrons better informed. Having fatality statistics certainly won’t enhance an individual’s ability to make relative decisions about an upcoming race.
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[rastajenk]

Handicapping off a medical chart is the quickest path to the Poorhouse.

[Robert Fischer]

[Sysonby]

The number has trended down generally. The Jockey Club keeps the Equine Injury Database that can provide good data since they started keeping it. My understanding is that last year was actually one of the lowest for serious injury. Given a general downward trend, it does make what happened at CDI an anomaly and I don't blame people for wanting it investigated.

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by rastajenk

Handicapping off a medical chart is the quickest path to the Poorhouse.

Perhaps if you even bothered to play HK for any length of time and reviewed all the statistical data that they make available you might have been able to make a more convincing judgement.

Bedsides, who said anything about using medical charts to do handicapping? Although there’s certainly nothing wrong with having that type of reference information accessible, especially if you’re more than a $2 bettor. After all, last I heard these horses are still composed of flesh and blood.