can anyone beat the public_____?

[lamboguy]

the way the odds are moving, conditional wagering and oddslines don't mean to much. but i agree that fixed odds would be good for those that make oddsline.

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by cj

And it really isn't "the public" any longer.

Was it ever?

[formula_2002]

Originally Posted by Gekish

Up to 8-1 the public correctly identifies a horse's chances to win. After that they start overestimating the chances. Higher the odds more the overestimation. This was all written about Fabricand's book years ago. The title escapes me now.

Horse Sense. Best horse racing analysis book ever. Help me to stop betting

[ranchwest]

Originally Posted by MPRanger

OK, I don't think so. Your oddsline should be a win oddsline reflecting
the chances each horse has to win the race. Or just your contenders,
however you make your line. It has nothing to do with who the betting
teams are betting on.

If you want to make a line on who you think the teams are betting on
that seems like a worthwile effort depending on how you play.

One way to avoid late odds changes is to bet cheap claiming
races at tracks with smaller handles to where the tote system can
keep up. Ie; tracks not called Gulfstream or any others where you think
it's a chronic problem.

I'm not privy to what these teams are thinking but it's not in their interest
to tilt the toteboard. Obviously nothing works all the time.

Fixed odds wagering is on the way. It'll be a lot more fun then.

With 39% winning favorites and a lot of winning second choices, the difference between a line being a probability of winning and a probability of the off odds is blurring.

As Dave said, the best way to win today is to identify bet against favorites.

In my opinion, another opportunity is pace scenario.

A third possibility is freshening.

I think there's still some trainer stats frontiers.

And, physicality. It's pretty tough to hide the way a horse looks.

[MPRanger]

Originally Posted by ranchwest

With 39% winning favorites and a lot of winning second choices, the difference between a line being a probability of winning and a probability of the off odds is blurring.

As Dave said, the best way to win today is to identify bet against favorites.

That's the way to do it today? Was there ever a time when betting against
legitimate favorites was the way to go? (well actually there was and is but not for me)



Nevertheless, it doesn't argue against using a line. If you downgrade a
vulnerable favorites chances then that equity goes to the other
contenders.



I'm not arguing with you. Just enjoying the discussion.

I could say a whole bunch of more stuff but I'll just leave it here.

[NormanTD]

Originally Posted by Half Smoke

____________


this is not directly re my OP but:


I personally believe that more could be profitable betting racing if they dramatically increased their selectivity

if they limited themselves to only those races in which they have the most confidence

but it's like that old commercial - was it Doritos__? which stated______ "nobody can eat just one"

an alternative would be to be bet much bigger on those races where you have high confidence - maybe 10 times as much as on the other races

.

Something I feel qualified to comment on/contribute to:

It was Lay's Potato Chips. "No one can eat just one"

[CBYRacer]

Originally Posted by ranchwest

Today, your oddsline needs to be close to reflecting the whale bets. Their money goes in near posttime, some say after. Comparing to the tote board no longer works. The displayed odds may be 2/1 loading, 3/2 when the gates open and 2/5 when the horses cross the wire.

Can someone explain to me why so much of the money comes in at the last moment or at least is tabulated post-start on the tote board? This is a terrible customer experience. I guess it's fine that a whale team can programatically trigger a last second wager through their ADW, but what about the on-track, in-state players who aren't allowed to wager off-premise?

[Dave Schwartz]

Originally Posted by CBYRacer

Can someone explain to me why so much of the money comes in at the last moment or at least is tabulated post-start on the tote board? This is a terrible customer experience. I guess it's fine that a whale team can programatically trigger a last second wager through their ADW, but what about the on-track, in-state players who aren't allowed to wager off-premise?

If you are betting from home or phone, even YOUR wagers while the horses are in the gate don't show until well into the race.

[Gekish]

Being 85 years old. I have been attending the races since childhood with my father and betting since I was a teenager. Back when horseracing was basically the only game in town there was a lot of sucker money around. Here in California as the scratchers, lotto, Indian casinos appeared the attendance and handle declined at the track. There is only so much gambling dollar in circulation. Andy Beyer said: " It was the sharks were playing against the fishes. Now the sharks are playing against the sharks".

[formula_2002]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

If you are betting from home or phone, even YOUR wagers while the horses are in the gate don't show until well into the race.

Back in the day, early seventies, I requested and was granted permission to spend the day within Aquaduct Pari- mutuel offices.i was doing research for a book. The staft were
very sharp and with it. They have the best betting dollar information. Size, quantity and time on all entries, for each betting window. You really want to friends with those guys.
Ps, book is yet to be finished.

[Bustin Stones]

You began writing a book 50 years ago and you haven't finished it? By all means take your time.

[formula_2002]

Originally Posted by Bustin Stones

You began writing a book 50 years ago and you haven't finished it? By all means take your time.

hey, it only took 1500 years to write the bible. I'm well within that time frame

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

if you give me 8 seconds after the bell, i will beat it too without a rebate.

here at Laurel, I can get a 'bet mate' wager pad on the local feed.

Certain races (especially a turf route or an 1m 1/16 dirt) have stand-side gate placement.

I get what seems about a 'half second' before the race 'closes'. Had a race or two that seemed more like 1.5 seconds but could be mistaken.

Not enough time to pull off a betting coup, but it is a big difference vs. the 3-5 second delay on simulcast/internet feeds.

not worth it to me to sit it out w/ the pad & binocs for the one or two advantage races a month when a rival fav is fractious.

[Dave Schwartz]

Originally Posted by formula_2002

hey, it only took 1500 years to write the bible. I'm well within that time frame

Do you have a cast of thousands working on it?

[Dave Schwartz]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

here at Laurel, I can get a 'bet mate' wager pad on the local feed.

Certain races (especially a turf route or an 1m 1/16 dirt) have stand-side gate placement.

I get what seems about a 'half second' before the race 'closes'. Had a race or two that seemed more like 1.5 seconds but could be mistaken.

Not enough time to pull off a betting coup, but it is a big difference vs. the 3-5 second delay on simulcast/internet feeds.

not worth it to me to sit it out w/ the pad & binocs for the one or two advantage races a month when a rival fav is fractious.

What is a 'bet mate' wager pad?