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Old 11-26-2011, 01:49 PM   #61
v j stauffer
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Originally Posted by ronsmac
Only 85%, wow, I thought it would be higher.
Take a straw poll in your minds. God knows there's plenty of straw in there.

Take todays form for whatever curcuit you are most familiar with. For me it would certainly be California.

Go though the past performances for Hollywood and Golden Gate. Use just gut feel. That's all any of you have done to this point anyway.

Remember you get to decide. Start with race 1 for each track. Look at the trainer and ask yourself the following question. JUICE/NO JUICE. Use whatever criteria you wish. Reputation, Accomplishments, Intuition, Little green monsters whispering on your shoulder. Doesn't matter it's your poll.

When finished see what % you end up with.

I'll say it one more time. If you REALLY think everyone is cheating. THEY ARE NOT. What in the world would posses you to play?
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Old 11-26-2011, 02:01 PM   #62
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Originally Posted by v j stauffer
I'll say it one more time. If you REALLY think everyone is cheating. THEY ARE NOT. What in the world would posses you to play?
OK...everyone is not cheating.

But how long do these "honest" horsemen figure to remain honest...when they see the success that the cheaters are having in this game?

When some of the biggest names in the training game are repeat offenders of the game's drug policies...how do the honest trainers hope to survive, much less prosper, in this game?
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Old 11-26-2011, 02:15 PM   #63
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Do Vic's little exercise using winners only.
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Old 11-26-2011, 02:29 PM   #64
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Originally Posted by Tom
Do Vic's little exercise using winners only.
Bingo. I don't think anywhere close to 85% of trainers cheat with illegal drugs, but the ones that do cheat might be winning close to 85% of the races on at least some circuits.

I've heard every excuse: I don't overwork them, I give them only the best feed, I have excellent exercise riders and grooms, I make sure their teeth are filed regularly, I fix their hindquarters, I run them where they belong. Like nobody thought of any of this until the past 10-12 years, when suddenly there has been an explosion in the number of trainers with very high win percentages. Yeah, right.
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Old 11-26-2011, 02:56 PM   #65
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Please consider this. The so called "super trainers" all seem to have several things in common. Is it fair. Probably not. Just like it's not fair to K C Royals fans vs. the Yankees every year.

These guys with gaudy percentages can do things the little guys cannot.

1. Massive vet work. Nothing illegal. All the things in the form of treatments and supplements that really do help but are VERY expensive.

2. The ability to have owners that let you weed out the ones that are sore or can't run. Smaller guys must play the hand they are dealt.

2a. Running one for $25,000 off a $40,000 claim. When you have a big barn with action owners and lot's of turnover bigger guys can play this game much more freely.

3. Huge barns can help fill races. Something that is a must to any good racing secretary. Favors go both ways though and some sweet spots can be found for the guys with enough inventory to help.

Just these and a few others can make a great horseman with a 20% barn go to a so called supertrainer at 30%. Suddenly then they are "cheating juicers" simply not so. Those bettor's that cry foul are the ones looking for blame rather than solutions. Shortcuts rather than hard work.

Big fish eat little fish. It's always been that way and always will be.

You all start out with the very same clean canvas before the 1st race. Get off your ass and out handicap the next guy.

Funny. I don't hear any of the winners complaining.
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Old 11-26-2011, 03:07 PM   #66
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Funny. I don't hear any of the winners complaining.
Then you don't read too well.
Lots of winners still complain about what drugs and super trainers have done to the game.

How's your handle these days?
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Old 11-26-2011, 03:08 PM   #67
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Originally Posted by v j stauffer
Please consider this. The so called "super trainers" all seem to have several things in common. Is it fair. Probably not. Just like it's not fair to K C Royals fans vs. the Yankees every year.

These guys with gaudy percentages can do things the little guys cannot.

1. Massive vet work. Nothing illegal. All the things in the form of treatments and supplements that really do help but are VERY expensive.

2. The ability to have owners that let you weed out the ones that are sore or can't run. Smaller guys must play the hand they are dealt.

2a. Running one for $25,000 off a $40,000 claim. When you have a big barn with action owners and lot's of turnover bigger guys can play this game much more freely.

3. Huge barns can help fill races. Something that is a must to any good racing secretary. Favors go both ways though and some sweet spots can be found for the guys with enough inventory to help.

Just these and a few others can make a great horseman with a 20% barn go to a so called supertrainer at 30%. Suddenly then they are "cheating juicers" simply not so. Those bettor's that cry foul are the ones looking for blame rather than solutions. Shortcuts rather than hard work.

Big fish eat little fish. It's always been that way and always will be.

You all start out with the very same clean canvas before the 1st race. Get off your ass and out handicap the next guy.

Funny. I don't hear any of the winners complaining.
Oddly enough...some of these "supertrainers" don't fit the mold that you have presented here.

They are not "big guys"...with "huge barns".

In fact, they were total unknowns with pretty small stables...and they only built-up their business after they revealed their miraculous powers.

And as to your assertion that only the losers are complaining?

That too is off the mark, I am afraid.

Andy Beyer has been "complaining" about these "supertrainers" for years now...as have other very astute players of this game.

Does Beyer look like a loser to you?
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Old 11-26-2011, 03:29 PM   #68
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Originally Posted by thaskalos
Oddly enough...some of these "supertrainers" don't fit the mold that you have presented here.

They are not "big guys"...with "huge barns".

In fact, they were total unknowns with pretty small stables...and they only built-up their business after they revealed their miraculous powers.

And as to your assertion that only the losers are complaining?

That too is off the mark, I am afraid.

Andy Beyer has been "complaining" about these "supertrainers" for years now...as have other very astute players of this game.

Does Beyer look like a loser to you?
I have known and respected Andy Beyer for 30 years. His contributions to handicapping are undeniable and revolutionary.

He's a vital voice in our game.

I have no idea how he does parimutually.

I love Andy. I am still pissed at him about Zenny though!!
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Old 11-26-2011, 03:35 PM   #69
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I love Andy. I am still pissed at him about Zenny though!!
Well, at least we agree there...
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Old 11-26-2011, 03:53 PM   #70
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There is no better example of public perception versus reality than this subject. It's off the charts paranoia.
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Old 11-26-2011, 04:06 PM   #71
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Intresting book and very good read and very informative.

My question are vets medication and billing at any given track accessble to the general public or stewards.

If not why or are thay private.

Mac
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Old 11-26-2011, 04:15 PM   #72
v j stauffer
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Originally Posted by bob60566
Intresting book and very good read and very informative.

My question are vets medication and billing at any given track accessble to the general public or stewards.

If not why or are thay private.

Mac
Those are called confidentials. Every vet must keep meticulous records for every procedure for every horsse no matter how minor. In California the stewards can demand too see those records at any time.
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Old 11-26-2011, 04:22 PM   #73
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Originally Posted by v j stauffer
What I'm saying is since it's a non factor for me. It evens out in MY wash. I cannot incorporate into my play, when I did play, something I have no way of knowing how to quantify.

Again. Obviously there are people that will attempt to break the rules to gain an advantage. That happens in every business in the world.

I do know for a fact though that horse racing, while not perfect, is one of the best regulated and cleanest industries anywhere.

The very nature of the beast is the bad guys try to stay one jump ahead of the good guys. That will never change. However in our game I believe the penalties are severe enough that most people don't take the chance.

The one's that do and get caught do get punished. Harshly enough. Not for me to say.

I will say I DO NOT think the entire sport is corrupt. I think it's getting cleaner everyday and I believe if anyone wishes to play they should put in the work to beat the next guy rather than grasping at butterflys they're not going to catch even if they're right.

Again I reiterate. If you think the game is fixed and only the crooks can win you'd be a fool to play. I don't

V J Stauffer - DumbDumb is your new handle
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Old 11-26-2011, 04:33 PM   #74
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Originally Posted by bob60566
My question are vets medication and billing at any given track accessble to the general public or stewards.


Mac
Vic has answered that and replied "Those are called confidentials."

Which begs the question:

Why are they confidential?? Yes, the Stewards can review them, but why can't the general public?? (I'm not sure that I'd bother, but some might.)
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Old 11-26-2011, 04:41 PM   #75
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V J Stauffer - DumbDumb is your new handle
Listen Pal. There's nothing new about that handle.
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