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11-25-2011, 01:32 PM
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#31
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,604
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IMO
Some trainers are better than others and can improve horses they take from less competent trainers.
Some do a better job of holding fit horses together or resting them when they need it and get more consistent performances out of them.
Some do a better job of spotting horses or are willing to drop them in class and lose them via the claiming box to get a win.
But when a trainer is consistently moving horses up sharply after taking them from other competent trainers and doing so after a quick turnaround (as opposed to long steady development) something is probably amiss.
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
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11-25-2011, 01:32 PM
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#32
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Veteran
Join Date: Apr 2009
Posts: 9,908
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Quote:
Originally Posted by johnhannibalsmith
I'm reasonably familiar with this subject. I was trying to poke you a little with some fun and slow down the barrage of escalating hostility over something that nobody was going to "win" the argument over.
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I know.
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11-25-2011, 01:38 PM
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#33
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,546
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Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper
But when a trainer is consistently moving horses up sharply after taking them from other competent trainers and doing so after a quick turnaround (as opposed to long steady development) something is probably amiss.
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And when other competent trainers claim these "vastly improved" horses away, but cannot get anywhere near the production that their prior trainers have gotten from them...then our suspicions escalate.
__________________
Live to play another day.
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11-25-2011, 01:47 PM
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#34
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Veteran
Join Date: Apr 2009
Posts: 9,908
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http://www.drf.com/blogs/back-yonker...ust-start-over
Excerpt:
Pena remains confident that his barn will return to glory and he does not back down from the accusations that he must be "using something" to win as often as he does.
"Guys who have been caught in the past disappear; I'm still here," said Pena, who remarked that the last positive drug test on one of his horses was more than two years ago.
"I just work hard, come in early, stay here late," Pena said. "I'm not going to wind up with six or seven titles because I'm lucky. Who has a magic potion that lasts that long? Doesn't the magic wear off or explode after a while like in the cartoons? [New Jersey officials] sat in my barn for almost a month and a half and came up with nothing. I just kept wondering to myself, `How much did that cost?' Wouldn't that money have been better spent somewhere else?"
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11-25-2011, 01:54 PM
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#35
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2007
Posts: 18,962
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
And when other competent trainers claim these "vastly improved" horses away, but cannot get anywhere near the production that their prior trainers have gotten from them...then our suspicions escalate.
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Undoubtedly some trainers do "something" to enhance claimers.
Mike Mitchell in So Cal has them running through their eyeballs when he picks off a new claim. He's also known though as a very good horseman. He's good at spotting who to claim and knowing where to place them. So I won't accuse him of anything illegal. It may just be that nutrition plays a huge factor too.
However, to say 85% of trainers use illegal meds, without supportive valid data is a stretch.
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11-25-2011, 02:24 PM
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#36
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,810
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Quote:
I am good at predicting the future...
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Nice call, Thask-rademous!
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
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11-25-2011, 03:10 PM
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#37
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: pen
Posts: 4,578
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Horseplayersbet.com
The secrets behind the tradition of cheating will both shock and amaze you.
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no, unfortunately, they will not.
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11-25-2011, 03:16 PM
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#38
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: pen
Posts: 4,578
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Brogan
His father, a long time trainer, is disgusted with him.
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has his father ever left the backstretch to check out historical win percentages of top trainers and owners in drug free racing jurisdictions?
kudos to the author for overcoming the limitations of his breeding.
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11-25-2011, 03:26 PM
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#39
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Racing Form Detective
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Lincoln, Ne but my heart is at Santa Anita
Posts: 16,316
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I think 85% is a low ball number. I would have a hard time coming up with one trainer who I didn't was cheating at least some of the time. Everytime I thought I have found an honest one, they come up a positive test within a month. I think the people that the number 85% is way too high must believe Santa Claus too.
__________________
Some day in the not too distant future, horse players will betting on computer generated races over the net. Race tracks will become casinos and shopping centers. And some crooner will be belting out "there used to be a race track here".
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11-25-2011, 03:43 PM
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#40
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: pen
Posts: 4,578
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Quote:
Originally Posted by andymays
Why do you bet?
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just because some paceadvantage handicappers have the wherewithal to incorporate the trainer (and, lol, owner ) into their handicapping, doesn't mean we should embrace today's culture of juicing.
why?
for one (selfish) reason, the racing is less contentious in such environments and less contentious racing leads to fewer overlays and fewer overlays lead to fewer bets....
also, such environments are not conducive to attracting new owners into the sport. and fewer new owners will ultimately lead to smaller field sizes. and smaller fields produce fewer overlays, which leads to fewer bets....
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11-25-2011, 10:48 PM
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#41
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PA Steward
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Del Boca Vista
Posts: 88,533
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Quote:
Originally Posted by andymays
http://www.drf.com/blogs/back-yonker...ust-start-over
Excerpt:
Pena remains confident that his barn will return to glory and he does not back down from the accusations that he must be "using something" to win as often as he does.
"Guys who have been caught in the past disappear; I'm still here," said Pena, who remarked that the last positive drug test on one of his horses was more than two years ago.
"I just work hard, come in early, stay here late," Pena said. "I'm not going to wind up with six or seven titles because I'm lucky. Who has a magic potion that lasts that long? Doesn't the magic wear off or explode after a while like in the cartoons? [New Jersey officials] sat in my barn for almost a month and a half and came up with nothing. I just kept wondering to myself, `How much did that cost?' Wouldn't that money have been better spent somewhere else?"
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You're supposed to be "out" of this one, remember?
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11-25-2011, 11:36 PM
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#42
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 4,284
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If "everybody" is cheating wouldn't that mean that it was again a level playing field?
__________________
"Just because she's a hitter and a thief doesn't mean she's not a good woman in all the other places" Mayrose Prizzi
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11-25-2011, 11:52 PM
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#43
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Racing Form Detective
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Lincoln, Ne but my heart is at Santa Anita
Posts: 16,316
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Quote:
Originally Posted by v j stauffer
If "everybody" is cheating wouldn't that mean that it was again a level playing field?
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Not everybody has access to the same drugs and new stuff comes out all the time. Of course, I assumed you knew that. I am going ask you a question and hopeful you will answer. Back when you were on the Nebraska curcuit, what % of the trainers did you think were cheating?
__________________
Some day in the not too distant future, horse players will betting on computer generated races over the net. Race tracks will become casinos and shopping centers. And some crooner will be belting out "there used to be a race track here".
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11-26-2011, 03:01 AM
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#44
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 4,284
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Robert Goren
Not everybody has access to the same drugs and new stuff comes out all the time. Of course, I assumed you knew that. I am going ask you a question and hopeful you will answer. Back when you were on the Nebraska curcuit, what % of the trainers did you think were cheating?
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I'm being honest when I say this. I was oblivious to all that. I was betting alot more then and of course heard all the whining. Funny how that only seemed to come from those who were losing. I looked at betting on horses two ways. Putting in more work than the next guy and exploiting it when they made mistakes. And thinking outside the box in new ways to know something others didn't know. Do I think there was no cheating? Of course not. However I always chose to only give credence to things I could quantify rather than trying to guess about something I knew nothing of anyway. I figured even if people were cheating it would even out in the wash. Soemtimes I'd benefit. Sometimes I'd lose just by the pure mathematics of it. I'll tell you this. If anyone REALLY thinks the game is corrupt and run by cheaters, I don't, and still plays they are very foolish.
__________________
"Just because she's a hitter and a thief doesn't mean she's not a good woman in all the other places" Mayrose Prizzi
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11-26-2011, 03:35 AM
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#45
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,546
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Quote:
Originally Posted by v j stauffer
I'm being honest when I say this. I was oblivious to all that. I was betting alot more then and of course heard all the whining. Funny how that only seemed to come from those who were losing. I looked at betting on horses two ways. Putting in more work than the next guy and exploiting it when they made mistakes. And thinking outside the box in new ways to know something others didn't know. Do I think there was no cheating? Of course not. However I always chose to only give credence to things I could quantify rather than trying to guess about something I knew nothing of anyway. I figured even if people were cheating it would even out in the wash. Soemtimes I'd benefit. Sometimes I'd lose just by the pure mathematics of it. I'll tell you this. If anyone REALLY thinks the game is corrupt and run by cheaters, I don't, and still plays they are very foolish.
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Cheating does not "even out in the wash".
It only erodes the players' confidence in the game...and they either flee the game or reduce their wagering drastically.
The game is no fun when the horses start running as if their past performances are forgeries.
And it doesn't take widespread cheating for this game to become unbeatable...and unbettable.
With the current takeout policies already in place...the game can hardly afford any cheating at all.
I find it amusing when I see people say that a "little" cheating in this game is easily manageable.
Would we ever consider venturing into a poker room...if we were assured that only a "few" of the players there were cheating?
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Live to play another day.
Last edited by thaskalos; 11-26-2011 at 03:38 AM.
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