Preakness

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by BarchCapper

Were all the previous ones pre-synthetic? This could be an aberration rather than a re-establishment of a key prep.

Yes they were. In addition, the ECR Derby used to be run in late January, not mid-March; and it used to be run at Bay Meadows.

Santa Anita ruined the ECR Derby (which relied on participation from horses from southern California) in the mid-nineties when it made the similarly scheduled Santa Catalina Stakes an open race with a large purse (it used to be a restricted race to non-stakes winners).

My post was just pointing out some useless trivia.

That said, The Stronach Group does guarantee a spot in the Preakness for the ECR Derby winner every year so theoretically it could become a popular stepping stone at least for that race.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

well, it was a very very bad race...you knew that was certain when Midnight Bourban was 5/2.

I think Midnight Bourbon was getting bet by default because his race prior to the Derby looked stronger in hindsight and in the Derby he had some trouble at the start, lost his desired position, and was around 4 wide the entire trip. Some people thought he would run a lot better in the Preakness.

I say that because he was the only horse I was interested in betting for those reasons. I passed because of the price. I guess lots of other people were thinking the same thing. I assume he looked a lot better on TG/RAG Sheets also because of the ground loss in the Derby and took money from those guys.

The horse I did not understand was Concert Tour. He just lost a pace battle to Caddo River and tired at 9F. Now, regardless of whether they pressed each other early or not he was going to have to engage Medina Spirit at some point (way superior to Caddo River), put him away, and hold off the closers at 9.5F. I didn't like him much. I'm embarrassed that I didn't make a bet against him. Throwing darts at the DRF probably would have been close to acceptable.

[Maximillion]

If you think that was basically the same Medina we have seen from his prior efforts and his loss was a largely a product of the pace....what your saying is that Midnight Bourbon was the one who took a nice step forward.No?(not even counting Derby effort as to me its almost meaningless)

Possible? of course, but at the same time I dont remember a horse getting knocked as much as him except for maybe that other horse whos name escapes me-there was an entire thread about him.In this case, I dont think the video is lying.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

The horse I did not understand was Concert Tour. He just lost a pace battle to Caddo River and tired at 9F. Now, regardless of whether they pressed each other early or not he was going to have to engage Medina Spirit at some point (way superior to Caddo River), put him away, and hold off the closers at 9.5F. I didn't like him much. I'm embarrassed that I didn't make a bet against him. Throwing darts at the DRF probably would have been close to acceptable.

The fact that Concert Tour took any money at all at least gives a glimmer of hope that the game can still be had from time to time, usually in these bigger days.

He essentially turned just about any bet on any other horse into a positive expectation wager.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

The fact that Concert Tour took any money at all at least gives a glimmer of hope that the game can still be had from time to time, usually in these bigger days.

He essentially turned just about any bet on any other horse into a positive expectation wager.

I feel exactly the same way.

Day to day there are a lot of races I have no edge on. But on some of these big race days there's so much dead public money in the pools it's kind of like the old days when NYC OTBs took in a ton of dead money and there weren't computer guys correcting all the overlays.

I hated Concert Tour, but the rest of the odds weren't anywhere near my expectations. So I kind of brain farted the race. I wasn't smart enough to come up with the winner as a key horse (like you), but I should have bet something. Even though I would have lost, I was crazy to not pull the trigger just because I my original idea wasn't as attractive as I expected.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I feel exactly the same way.

Day to day there are a lot of races I have no edge on. But on some of these big race days there's so much dead public money in the pools it's kind of like the old days when NYC OTBs took in a ton of dead money and there weren't computer guys correcting all the overlays.

I hated Concert Tour, but the rest of the odds weren't anywhere near my expectations. So I kind of brain farted the race. I wasn't smart enough to come up with the winner as a key horse (like you), but I should have bet something. Even though I would have lost, I was crazy to not pull the trigger just because I my original idea wasn't as attractive as I expected.

I almost feel obligated that if I have an opinion against a horse who takes significant money to bet the race, i figure in the long wrong I will be right more times than not.

That being said I dont really bet much anymore, its a time to time kinda thing.

[zico20]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I feel exactly the same way.

Day to day there are a lot of races I have no edge on. But on some of these big race days there's so much dead public money in the pools it's kind of like the old days when NYC OTBs took in a ton of dead money and there weren't computer guys correcting all the overlays.

I hated Concert Tour, but the rest of the odds weren't anywhere near my expectations. So I kind of brain farted the race. I wasn't smart enough to come up with the winner as a key horse (like you), but I should have bet something. Even though I would have lost, I was crazy to not pull the trigger just because I my original idea wasn't as attractive as I expected.

My thought on Concert Tour was he was either going to win the race or be nowhere. When I have that opinion they almost always run 2nd or 3rd. I finally got one right about that. It doesn't happen often, I will probably be right again next year after a 100 more that I botch up!

[Bullet Plane]

Well I bet much less these days. Seems the crowd just keeps getting smarter, or maybe I just keep getting dumber. Maybe a little of both.

But, Concert Tour was 5-2 morning line and went off just about 4-1. Taking very little action vs expected.

On the other hand, Midnight Bourbon was 5-1 morning line, and went off 3-1.

Boy, that horse was taking action.

And the crowd. Man they nailed it.

Did miss the winner on this one though.

But, I didn't see many public handicappers picking him either...