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05-14-2021, 03:52 PM
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#46
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,559
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Did the howework, went to bed earlier than a choir boy, yet was sick and extremely nauseaus this morning, passed on taping the Triple Clowns segment (was excited to take part, and greatly appreciate and recommend)
BES DAY
Take a look at Last Judgement. don't commit, but if you get near the 4-1 in the mL, then he's a reasoanble value.
BES Race - Iced Latte should be somewhere 5/1+ maybe into mid-range odds. Draws well could run a contending race today.
SPRITZ #3? check that post number draws well and has show me some pace adversity. Outta 'go for it' today.
These two mentioned will be on a couple stabs for thae BES/PREAK DOUBLE
also think the pace and paths could be a factor in the vertical (ex/tri/su) BES wagering today.
Baffert has the #10 in this race, and between having run in short west coast fields, and now facing strong pace players, and drawing wide in a moderately short run to the first turn, She will either be quite wide, wor wast a bunch of energy to clear.
Aside from the 10 (and maybe some cheap pace not mentioned), all of the other logical and betting favorites figure to be in play here.
Cool race.
PREAKNESS Baffert has two Aces. He can control the pace. Medina could win, but you have the media uproar pressure on medina's corticosteroid overage, as well as the huge ego and valuable ownership partner West with Concert Tour.
I'll treat them as a uncoupled-entry but feel free to read between the lines.
The next Preakness insight is that Risk Taking is the next best horse. Crowded Tread is cooler than Risk Taking, and a better story and more fun, but he's also less talented at 1m 3/16 and shorter Odds. Risk Taking is a mild overlay in the Preakness.
Crowded trade may or may not attend minor awards. He's been a fortunate overachiever, but he's in great hands and may be passed the fake-it stage and has potetnital to 'make it' as a solid stakes runner. If brown does any 'teamwork' tactics, it would be to quarterhorse Crowded Trade to the first turn in hopes of making the Baffert duo work or loose a path.
Midnight Bourbon would be a bet in useuful-older-horse-futures, if that bet existed, and if you got refunds for cop-out stud deals. Good horse
Can chase and pass a fader. I see him sitting a good trip, and maybe even flowing through, in the 'zone', just not sure both bafferts will collapse and if that lower probability played out that Risk Taking would just out-kick Midnight Bourbon.
Enjoying the cards and making a ew multis and gimmicks.
BES/PRK;DD will try if a price... Last Judgement flyer Stron5... Risk Taking internal vertical exotics....
enjoying a nice weekend.
Windows open.
Self proclaimed 'Baltimoron' here , did the Old Bay Shrimp w/ coctail sauce (using Kelchman's horseradish), toingight leftover shrimp in a linguina clam sauce.
Good luck guys , try to have some enjoyment
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
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05-15-2021, 06:37 PM
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#47
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 1,725
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1st: Keepmeinmind
2nd: Midnight Bourbon
3rd: Medina Spirit
4th: Rombauer
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05-15-2021, 06:58 PM
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#48
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 38
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awesome!
exactly what the sport needed right now.
top 2 go off and duel it out till the last turn only to lose to a charging 11-1.
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05-15-2021, 07:10 PM
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#49
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 1,725
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Superfecta box .10 = $100+
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05-15-2021, 07:13 PM
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#50
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,870
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GMB@BP
Interesting race....so guessing Bourbon will try to be sent to the lead to battle Medina since everyone thought he should have been near the lead in the Derby. No way Concert Tour presses his barn mate in this circumstance so he is likely to get hung out.
I kinda like Rombauer who I thought was a talented sort.
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cha ching
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05-15-2021, 07:43 PM
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#51
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2009
Posts: 3,053
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GMB@BP
cha ching
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Congrats.
In the '80s and '90s, running well in the El Camino Real Derby used to be a surprisingly good path towards success in the Preakness.
Rombauer is 6th Preakness winner to come out of the ECR Derby in only 40 editions of the race.
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05-15-2021, 07:47 PM
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#52
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,870
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Spalding No!
Congrats.
In the '80s and '90s, running well in the El Camino Real Derby used to be a surprisingly good path towards success in the Preakness.
Rombauer is 6th Preakness winner to come out of the ECR Derby in only 40 editions of the race.
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well, it was a very very bad race...you knew that was certain when Midnight Bourban was 5/2.
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05-15-2021, 07:50 PM
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#53
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,870
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Spalding No!
Congrats.
In the '80s and '90s, running well in the El Camino Real Derby used to be a surprisingly good path towards success in the Preakness.
Rombauer is 6th Preakness winner to come out of the ECR Derby in only 40 editions of the race.
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Oh and taking a cue from one of your older posts I found a couple suspicious workout patterns and times within that group and I think they are still running to finish.
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05-15-2021, 07:50 PM
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#54
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2009
Posts: 3,053
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GMB@BP
well, it was a very very bad race...you knew that was certain when Midnight Bourban was 5/2.
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Yeah; I almost wanted to post about that before the race. I couldn't believe he was co-favorite. Wasn't sure what I was missing.
But like you said his odds (and subsequent performance) are probably more a condemnation of the field rather than a reflection of his ability.
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05-15-2021, 09:04 PM
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#55
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 8,798
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Spalding No!
Congrats.
In the '80s and '90s, running well in the El Camino Real Derby used to be a surprisingly good path towards success in the Preakness.
Rombauer is 6th Preakness winner to come out of the ECR Derby in only 40 editions of the race.
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Yep. Snow Chief and Tabasco Cat, among others.
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05-16-2021, 03:36 PM
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#56
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,613
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GMB@BP
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Nice call
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
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05-16-2021, 09:59 PM
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#57
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2017
Location: Near Lexington, KY
Posts: 3,246
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GMB@BP
Interesting race....so guessing Bourbon will try to be sent to the lead to battle Medina since everyone thought he should have been near the lead in the Derby. No way Concert Tour presses his barn mate in this circumstance so he is likely to get hung out.
I kinda like Rombauer who I thought was a talented sort.
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GMB@BP...that was one Hell of a prognostication. I hope you knuckled that opinion...and got paid off for it!!!     
__________________
Just when you least expect it...just what you least expect-The Pet Shop Boys.
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05-17-2021, 10:37 AM
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#58
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2015
Posts: 151
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hoops McCann
which double digit horse will take money? i say it will be Rombauer
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he wasn't, but apparently shoulda been
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05-17-2021, 12:04 PM
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#59
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2010
Location: OKC, OK
Posts: 609
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Preps:
Looks like the LA Derby and the Blue Grass preps have been the strongest.
LA D:
HRC ran very good Derby race, Mandaloun good also in Derby.
O Besos didn't really get anything to run at in Derby but beat MB in there, and they both had about an equal shot at it from where they began the race i.e. the back.
MB very good in Preakness,
BG S:
EQ ran a bang up race in Derby, of course Rombauer won the Preak, those 24 and sub splits had to help set up Rombauer.
Highly Motivated ran a dud in Derby, but might have bounced and could come back strong somewhere.
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05-17-2021, 10:58 PM
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#60
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2019
Location: Clarksville, AR
Posts: 1,222
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Spalding No!
Congrats.
In the '80s and '90s, running well in the El Camino Real Derby used to be a surprisingly good path towards success in the Preakness.
Rombauer is 6th Preakness winner to come out of the ECR Derby in only 40 editions of the race.
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Were all the previous ones pre-synthetic? This could be an aberration rather than a re-establishment of a key prep.
__________________
Tom in NW Arkansas
Past performances are no guarantee of future results. - Why isn't this disclaimer printed in the Daily Racing Form?
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