Shared Belief or Constitution?

[classhandicapper]

These are random thoughts.

1. If you asked 10 handicappers before the Donn and San Antonio which was the higher quality field, I think 10 out of 10 would have said the San Antonio (at least at the top end of the field)

2. If you asked the same 10 handicappers who ran the better race between Shared Belief and Constitution after the race, maybe 8-9 out of 10 would say Shared Belief was more impressive visually and given that gap between California Chrome and Hoppertunity, he ran huge.

3. From what I gather, most major figure makers have Constitution running the faster race (by varying amounts)

4. There are obviously all sorts of pace, ground loss, race development etc.. issues that impact time, but this is the sort of thing that causes a theoretical dilemma between class, visual skills, time etc... for me when it comes to evaluating horses. The figures are essentially "correct", but are they right?

5. I was in the camp that thought it was conceivable that Shared Belief was excellent on dirt, but a hair better on synthetic. The reason I felt that way was a very very small part pedigree, but mostly because when he finished on synthetic, he used to really reach out during the stretch drive like a horse that was absolutely loaded with energy in reserve. He also used to draw off on that surface, which is typically a tougher thing to do. Granted, pace and trip are issues in how a horse is going finish. But yesterday was the first time on dirt while watching the stretch drive I felt like I was watching that crazy good horse. To me, that was visually monstrous. He was loaded.

[MJC922]

IMO 'loaded' in part because it's a half in 47-4. My knock visually is the softest part of the pace was the second quarter where he's not well in hand crawling over the top of them but rather he needed to be scrubbed on to stay awake. Nice horse SB, but IMO against big pace he's going to find himself in deep water. Granted he should be in the hunt for a piece of any GR1 race but as I see it this race played out as ideal conditions for his abilities. A clean break, a soft half to be up close to and not a speck of dust on Mike's jacket.

[Secondbest]

I Agreee with you. Right now Shared Belief is the best horse.

[horses4courses]

imo, the only track I would consider giving Constitution a chance over SB
would be at Gulfstream. Year after year, we see horses run huge at this track
and they don't run back to it at other tracks. Quite often Pletcher horses.

I believe that Shared Belief is the better horse.
Had Constitution run at SA yesterday, I think he would have run third.

[Cadillakin]

Originally Posted by MJC922

IMO 'loaded' in part because it's a half in 47-4. My knock visually is the softest part of the pace was the second quarter where he's not well in hand crawling over the top of them but rather he needed to be scrubbed on to stay awake. Nice horse SB, but IMO against big pace he's going to find himself in deep water..

A true classic horse, one that excels over a distance of ground, will never be climbing over his competitors in the first half mile, unless he is a brilliant front-running type like Seattle Slew who will fight for superiority the moment the gates open. Simply put, most classic runners aren't superior to their competition after a half mile. In yesterdays race, you could see exactly where he and CC came together. At 7/8ths, on the moderate pace, CC was still retaining his speed/energy and superiority, at least temporarily. At a mile, they came together. Beyond that, Shared Belief's superiority is clearly demonstrated. If they would have went another 1/8th, SB would have beat CC, at least 4 lengths, probably more.

Shared Belief just won a Grade 2 sprint at 7 furlongs, passing the 6 furlong mark in 1:08.3, so he is hardly vulnerable to pace circumstances in races beyond a mile. He doesn't need horses to come back to him.. At the half mile mark in most any race, he will be behind or "beat" by hundreds of horses. So, your observation is valid in a limited sense, but the stretch run and finish line - where class is demonstrated - is on the frontside of the track, not the backside.

[MJC922]

Originally Posted by Cadillakin

A true classic horse, one that excels over a distance of ground, will never be climbing over his competitors in the first half mile, unless he is a brilliant front-running type like Seattle Slew who will fight for superiority the moment the gates open. Simply put, most classic runners aren't superior to their competition after a half mile. In yesterdays race, you could see exactly where he and CC came together. At 7/8ths, on the moderate pace, CC was still retaining his speed/energy and superiority, at least temporarily. At a mile, they came together. Beyond that, Shared Belief's superiority is clearly demonstrated. If they would have went another 1/8th, SB would have beat CC, at least 4 lengths, probably more.

Shared Belief just won a Grade 2 sprint at 7 furlongs, passing the 6 furlong mark in 1:08.3, so he is hardly vulnerable to pace circumstances in races beyond a mile. He doesn't need horses to come back to him.. At the half mile mark in most any race, he will be behind or "beat" by hundreds of horses. So, your observation is valid in a limited sense, but the stretch run and finish line - where class is demonstrated - is on the frontside of the track, not the backside.

Hey bud, long time. We'll have to agree to disagree on this one. If you have that much class then you better be in hand every step through a 48 half. I come close to putting a line through how fast they come home after that because it's phony in the sense that he'll most likely never see sitting third in the clear on a 47-4 half for the rest of his career. Furthermore I think you'll find a lot of Graded stakes horses can throw 12's down to the line after a 48 half. So not being in hand I have him pegged as a horse with more heart than ability which doesn't mean I don't respect the horse as a grinder. Watch Mucho Macho Man in the classic vs. a horse like Will Take Charge, you have pure class and talent racing in hand every step chasing 46 vs a grinder who needs to be scrubbed on when the real running begins. Sometimes these grinders they get lucky and get up but IMO there's a sizable difference in ability.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

1. If you asked 10 handicappers before the Donn and San Antonio which was the higher quality field, I think 10 out of 10 would have said the San Antonio (at least at the top end of the field)

2. If you asked the same 10 handicappers who ran the better race between Shared Belief and Constitution after the race, maybe 8-9 out of 10 would say Shared Belief was more impressive visually and given that gap between California Chrome and Hoppertunity, he ran huge.

3. From what I gather, most major figure makers have Constitution running the faster race (by varying amounts)

4. There are obviously all sorts of pace, ground loss, race development etc.. issues that impact time, but this is the sort of thing that causes a theoretical dilemma between class, visual skills, time etc... for me when it comes to evaluating horses. The figures are essentially "correct", but are they right?

Good question.

Any time a good horse in the Donn breaks from an inside post, and gets to set a moderate pace, and then finishes pretty good = you are going to have a speed figure that ends up very high no matter what method the figs are based on.

Trust your own opinion as long as it's based on logic and not emotion.

[zico20]

Paul Lo Duca said before the Donn that Lea was the best dirt horse in America. Bold statement considering Lea has not won outside of GP on a fast track. As far as Constitution and Lea are concerned I need to see them win on dirt other than GP. Because as of now, they are being blanked minus Lea win on a sloppy track in an allowance race that had 4 horses that came off the turf.

Shared Belief ran the much better race Saturday. Constitution would have been third at best, and I am being generous here.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by zico20

Paul Lo Duca said before the Donn that Lea was the best dirt horse in America. ...

I don't know the context (if he was using a certain speed fig, or his opinion or what)

but i seem to remember Lea having some high figs ,

& w/ what I'm referring to in post #7 of this thread -
- - Gulfstream has a certain bias already built into it @ 9Furlongs. -
Constitution got the dream run through the first turn(a significant part of the bias itself at times), and front end position(often again), and control of that front end under moderate pace(+)

So combine all that stuff with your Paul Lo Duca stuff = and any method that happens to 'project' figures is going to pump up Constitution's already very biased effort by using Lea's projection...

And you have to project your figures to some extent.


at least that's my thought process here Class, Zico, and anyone interested.

If someone knows that to be incorrect, feel free to speak up and correct me, I'm happy to learn.

[RXB]

Constitution got the dream setup yesterday: the rail draw in a race starting near the turn, helping him to establish a clear lead on moderate fractions over a notorious frontrunners' track. Here are the 2f sprint and 4f route positions of the win-place horses on GP dirt:

1-3
1-7
4-1
3-1
1-2
1-5

So the early leaders won four races and placed in the other two.

Constitution hasn't even come close to showing that he's in the same league as Shared Belief, California Chrome, Bayern.

[classhandicapper]

I agree that Constitution got a favorable trip on the lead from the inside. That probably helped him run a fast figure.

How about a horse like Elnaawi?

The gap between Elnaawi and Shared Belief/CA Chrome on figures is not very large. IMO, there's no way Elnaawi is even close to those horses.

The point being that even when figures are measured accurately, you can have some huge variations due to race development, pace etc... With horses like these, they are consistent enough and followed closely enough you can usually interpret what happened. But for me, this kind of stuff remains a dilemma in day to day racing. Do I believe the PPs and what I saw or the numbers? Sometimes it's not clear which is right, but to determine fair value it's critical to know.

[Donttellmeshowme]

What were the Beyers for both horses?

[ubercapper]

Originally Posted by Donttellmeshowme

What were the Beyers for both horses?

Mike Watchmaker wrote Constitution got a 113, Shared Belief 106

Equibase figures disagree, giving Shared Belief a 120, Constitution 117

[raybo]

You can't just look at speed figures to determine better versus worst performances. I think I can guarantee that SB would beat Constitution heads-up. CC too, for that matter and Bayern wins over half the time against all 3 of them in the same races, because he controls the pace.

[horses4courses]

Originally Posted by raybo

You can't just look at speed figures to determine better versus worst performances. I think I can guarantee that SB would beat Constitution heads-up. CC too, for that matter and Bayern wins over half the time against all 3 of them in the same races, because he controls the pace.

Fair assessment

Gulfstream has such a long history of "flash in the pan" speed figures, also.