Horses to watch: Script.

[cj]

Originally Posted by the little guy

What number did you give her?

99, which is a good number for a 2yo. It isn't one that screams star, especially in December. Obviously there is more to racing than numbers as you well know, and this is a case where I think she is much better.

[the little guy]

Originally Posted by cj

99, which is a good number for a 2yo. It isn't one that screams star, especially in December. Obviously there is more to racing than numbers as you well know, and this is a case where I think she is much better.

It's still pretty solid for a 2YO debuting going long on the turf. It's in line with BC Juvenile Fillies Turf.

[classhandicapper]

The only problem with Marketsegmenttion is the obvious one. She's a 200k American Pharoah, trained by Chad Brown and owned by Klaravich. She looked good in the stretch when finally allowed to run, but everyone is going to assume forward progress when she runs back. I suspect she's not going to be much value going forward. I didn't see much hidden other than perhaps a slight steady.

[the little guy]

I hate it when the adults are trying to talk, and the children keep interrupting.

[cj]

Originally Posted by the little guy

It's still pretty solid for a 2YO debuting going long on the turf. It's in line with BC Juvenile Fillies Turf.

Right, didn't see any stars in that one though.

Thanks for doing the Pacecast!

[cj]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

The only problem with Marketsegmenttion is the obvious one. She's a 200k American Pharoah, trained by Chad Brown and owned by Klaravich. She looked good in the stretch when finally allowed to run, but everyone is going to assume forward progress when she runs back. I suspect she's not going to be much value going forward. I didn't see much hidden other than perhaps a slight steady.

For all the supposed loss of value on Chad Brown horses, he is currently the trainer I have the best ROI betting this year, and it is a very healthy ROI too.

[the little guy]

Originally Posted by cj

Right, didn't see any stars in that one though.

Thanks for doing the Pacecast!

It was an honor to fill in for you

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by the little guy

I hate it when the adults are trying to talk, and the children keep interrupting.

And I hate that you behave like a dickhead towards some people on message boards even when it's totally unnecessary, unprovoked, and unwarranted. I'm loaded with flaws, but I'm always trying to be better. You should try that too.

[1mileto7Fcutback]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

And I hate that you behave like a dickhead towards some people on message boards even when it's totally unnecessary, unprovoked, and unwarranted. I'm loaded with flaws, but I'm always trying to be better. You should try that too.

Unprovoked?

Surely you jest.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by cj

For all the supposed loss of value on Chad Brown horses, he is currently the trainer I have the best ROI betting this year, and it is a very healthy ROI too.

I hear you. He's a great trainer. His horses often get bet more than their PPs suggest they should, but it's often fully warranted. That's the point I've been making for awhile. People look at the PPs and say "this horse would never be 8/5 if Chad Brown wasn't the trainer" as if the horse is a huge underlay because Chad is the trainer. But many of his horses are way more likely to run their A race or a new top than for the average trainer. You can see that in the ROIs. If they were actually very overbet it would easy to find bad ROI categories. So you have to build that into the fair price. If you can find the occasional good one that's overlooked for no good reason you are going to do great, but they are hard to find, because, well, it's Chad Brown.

[the little guy]

Originally Posted by 1mileto7Fcutback

Unprovoked?

Surely you jest.

That’s so funny. I never opened it before! Guy trashes me all over the internet but is now playing the victim. Too funny.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by the little guy

That’s so funny. I never opened it before! Guy trashes me all over the internet but is now playing the victim. Too funny.

Cut the crap.

You've had a problem with me for whatever reason for a very very long time. Maybe I said something nasty about NYRA years ago. Who knows. For a long time I tried to be nice and respectful back because that's my innate way of dealing with people. But that didn't work. So now when you say something about me I don't like, I give it back to you. I don't even want to bring up the issue I had with you at DRF again. You are very lucky I am good guy and let it go.

[taxicab]

Originally Posted by 1mileto7Fcutback

Wouldn't the respective paces in his first two be more of an indicator on why he was far back in his debut (fast early pace) and on the lead in his second (24,48)?

This is actually a pretty good question........because of the way I'm viewing Script.
In his opener Script had a quick pace in front of him,no denying.
In most cases I would attribute the big late move from Script to early pace.
Since it was Script's first race and Graham Motion wasn't going to have him wound up early,I only graded Script on what he showed late in the race.
Late in the race Script really passed the eye test for me,so I was impressed.
In his second race.....yes........Script hit the front in a slow paced affair.
Did that help him ?.........yes.
Most times (grizzled veteran types) I mark horses down for soft front end jaunts.......but once again I was looking at the "shaping" of a young race horse.
I really liked his different pace approach.......it signified to me that the barn has a plan,and Script is cooperating with it.......and said plan is right out of the Motion textbook for success.
In terms of "the other side of the coin" (what you're getting at 17F)......your take certainly holds water......Script benefited from soft pace trips.....Handicapping 101 don't ya know.......same holds true with the speed figure folks,I understand that.
Simply put,I like the way things are playing out for Script......and I'm projecting improvement from him.

[taxicab]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

Dilly has already been fairly productive with 4 winners from 4 foals to race (2 of which have earned black type). The mare also descends from a very deep family that has produced horses like Glorious Song, Soaring Softly, Rahy, Saint Ballado, Devil's Bag, Tricky Creek, etc.

Perhaps more interesting is that he hasn't bred her to an important stallion yet.

+1
When I was going through her bloodline,noticed it was regal to say the least......kind of old schoolish,but legit.
And to give a bit more credit to Stone Farm......they didn't care about the TrueNicks grading system one bit(they gave the pairing a "D").
I kind of like the fact that SF knew what they had/wanted to do.......and pulled the trigger.

[taxicab]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

So many people know about every maiden that wins with a very fast figure their owners often get calls from prospective buyers. It's important information, but imo it's practically useless to value oriented bettors unless you have a reason to not like one of them (bias aided etc..) or know a situation where they tend to disappoint going forward.

I have no view on the horse you mentioned, but like you I way prefer to follow horses I have reason to think are capable of running faster than they shown so far.

First paragraph.........yes.
Second paragraph........agree.