Preakness - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

Musket Man · 05-04-2021, 12:04 PM

Per Cox, EQ bypassing Preakness, will wait until the Belmont. Decision on his other two made in the next couple of days.

Spalding No! · 05-04-2021, 02:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Musket Man

Per Cox, EQ bypassing Preakness, will wait until the Belmont. Decision on his other two made in the next couple of days.

Doesn't sound like the Belmont is set in stone, either. Trainer mentioned the Travers as the primary goal.

Godolphin has already flown in UAE Derby winner Rebel's Romance into NY for the Belmont Stakes.

zico20 · 05-04-2021, 02:36 PM

With Essential Quality out of the race no point in entering Caddo River who will most likely run last. If Caddo does go there is no way he is getting the lead this time so what is the point. Mandaloun is a presser so he doesn't really need a rabbit.

Spalding No! · 05-04-2021, 03:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by zico20

With Essential Quality out of the race no point in entering Caddo River who will most likely run last. If Caddo does go there is no way he is getting the lead this time so what is the point. Mandaloun is a presser so he doesn't really need a rabbit.

Won't Baffert have total control the pace between his two colts if Caddo River doesn't run?

I also wouldn't underestimate the benefit of Caddo River getting a new rider as Geroux is sure to take Mandaloun off his Derby effort.

zico20 · 05-04-2021, 04:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

Won't Baffert have total control the pace between his two colts if Caddo River doesn't run?

I also wouldn't underestimate the benefit of Caddo River getting a new rider as Geroux is sure to take Mandaloun off his Derby effort.

How would you like to be the owner of Caddo River and know your horse is being wasted to set up another. Horses only have so many races in them nowadays, wouldn't it be wiser to enter him in a race where he can win and make some money?

f2tornado · 05-04-2021, 05:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by zico20

How would you like to be the owner of Caddo River and know your horse is being wasted to set up another. Horses only have so many races in them nowadays, wouldn't it be wiser to enter him in a race where he can win and make some money?

It used to be the Preakness was more kind to speed than the Derby. Not so sure about that now but it's probably not the worse spot for Caddo.

Rex Phinney · 05-04-2021, 05:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

Won't Baffert have total control the pace between his two colts if Caddo River doesn't run?

I also wouldn't underestimate the benefit of Caddo River getting a new rider as Geroux is sure to take Mandaloun off his Derby effort.

He had total control of the pace in the Derby. With only one horse and 18 others behind him.

Right now the Preakness is Medina Spirit's to lose, I don't see Caddo River in or out changing that.

Spalding No! · 05-04-2021, 07:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by zico20

How would you like to be the owner of Caddo River and know your horse is being wasted to set up another. Horses only have so many races in them nowadays, wouldn't it be wiser to enter him in a race where he can win and make some money?

I didn't say he would set it up for another horse (the other poster might have).

Caddo River beat both Baffert colts in the Arkansas Derby and finished 2nd, winning the battle but losing the war.

Again, Caddo River is almost certain to have a new rider. Geroux couldn't get the horse to relax, maybe another rider can.

Spalding No! · 05-04-2021, 07:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rex Phinney

He had total control of the pace in the Derby. With only one horse and 18 others behind him.

He had control of the pace because the other speed didn't enter (Caddo River), broke poorly (Midnight Bourbon), got bumped and had equipment failure (Rock Your World), or came up to the race in poor shape (Soup and Sandwich).

Quote:

Right now the Preakness is Medina Spirit's to lose, I don't see Caddo River in or out changing that.

Caddo River is at least a major pace factor in the race (as is Concert Tour). Medina Spirit will have to either change tactics or take much more heat in the Preakness than he did in the Derby.

Maybe he's up to it. War Emblem was up to it under a similar scenario. Authentic was not.

ReplayRandall · 05-04-2021, 08:57 PM

Medina Spirit will not win the Preakness....Won't control the pace, has no energy reserve left as was fully used in Derby.

zico20 · 05-04-2021, 09:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

I didn't say he would set it up for another horse (the other poster might have).

Caddo River beat both Baffert colts in the Arkansas Derby and finished 2nd, winning the battle but losing the war.

Again, Caddo River is almost certain to have a new rider. Geroux couldn't get the horse to relax, maybe another rider can.

That is because Baffert let him have the lead in the Arkansas Derby. Never going to happen this time if he runs.

Musket Man · 05-05-2021, 12:01 PM

Unbridled Honor confirmed, via Pletcher. Which is interesting, because that's not his MO, unless he's won the Derby.

Robert Fischer · 05-05-2021, 01:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by zico20

That is because Baffert let him have the lead in the Arkansas Derby. Never going to happen this time if he runs.

Arkansas Derby was somewhat interesting to me.

Went into it expecting Concert Tour to romp and be 2nd choice to Essential Quality in the Derby...

Watching it live, I had the feeling of both that it was disapointing for the potential star Concert Tour, as well as pretty strong from Super Stock.

Handicapping back on the race later on, I was less impressed by Super Stock.
And, I know this Derby had a variety of flavors, but not too many experts or fans were on Super Stock. What did he end up going off at?
I didn't even have him in my larger contending group.

Lambo Guy made a great call for that Arkansas Derby, and I think liked him a little going forward, but Super Stock didn't take a ton of respect for his win.

Late pace in that race was pretty weak. I didn't like O Besos either, but I can look at the combination of late pace figures and flows, and see that O Besos is probably a significantly better closer vs. Super Stock at this point.

Maybe it was just a combination of a somewhat tiring race, and a somewhat strong pace, and a dissapointing effort from Concert Tour and Caddo River. However, some chance that it was a little bit of a 'meltdown'. If you dig that deep, and buy the meltdown theory, then Caddo River actually ran a decent race. I know Concert Tour wasn't abused once the outcome was clear, but FWIW Caddo River did a decent job of winning that underneath battle.

Rex Phinney · 05-05-2021, 03:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by zico20

That is because Baffert let him have the lead in the Arkansas Derby. Never going to happen this time if he runs.

Agreed, Baffert has lots of options in this race, all of them include using one or both of his horses to make sure noone else gets a soft lead.

Rex Phinney · 05-05-2021, 03:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

He had control of the pace because the other speed didn't enter (Caddo River), broke poorly (Midnight Bourbon), got bumped and had equipment failure (Rock Your World), or came up to the race in poor shape (Soup and Sandwich).

Caddo River is at least a major pace factor in the race (as is Concert Tour). Medina Spirit will have to either change tactics or take much more heat in the Preakness than he did in the Derby.

Maybe he's up to it. War Emblem was up to it under a similar scenario. Authentic was not.

It's not Medina Spriit's fault that other horses didn't break well or came up to the race in poor shape.

Medina Spirit has run well in other races without the lead, I'm not sure why he is being made out as a one trick pony here.

If Caddo River wants to enter and let Baffert use him up with Concert Tour, fine. It's possible that just sets the race up for Medina Spirit.