final 3/8 of a mile

[cj]

This is the a snapshot of the current spreadsheet I've been posting the last few years, will narrow it down as the field becomes clearer and also add in Arkansas Derby horses as needed. I adjusted the Louisiana Derby to a 3f last fraction equivalent. I only consider races at 9f or longer. It looks at the TimeformUS adjusted last fraction as well as the speed figure. For horses with two qualifying races, I used the best one.

I'm not including Dubai horses, but I did include the Turfway runners though the numbers say they are pretty irrelevant. I'll update again after next week and continue to do so as the field changes leading up to the big day.

[Secondbest]

CJ. Looking forward again to your final array.
Can't thank you enough for posting it every year.

[Secondbest]

Thanks also to Stan and Trifecta. For your postings for the derby each year.

[Afleet]

thanks Stan and CJ

[Secondbest]

Originally Posted by cj

This is the a snapshot of the current spreadsheet I've been posting the last few years, will narrow it down as the field becomes clearer and also add in Arkansas Derby horses as needed. I adjusted the Louisiana Derby to a 3f last fraction equivalent. I only consider races at 9f or longer. It looks at the TimeformUS adjusted last fraction as well as the speed figure. For horses with two qualifying races, I used the best one.

I'm not including Dubai horses, but I did include the Turfway runners though the numbers say they are pretty irrelevant. I'll update again after next week and continue to do so as the field changes leading up to the big day.

Field is set, posts drawn. I'm looking forward to your array.
Thanks in advance CJ

[cj]

Originally Posted by Secondbest

Field is set, posts drawn. I'm looking forward to your array.
Thanks in advance CJ

Yep, will have it out tomorrow.

[cj]

Originally Posted by cj

Yep, will have it out tomorrow.

I lied, got to it tonight, here you go.

I'll be honest, I'm wary of the Louisiana Derby. I did the best I could but that 1 3/16 distance is new at the Fair Grounds. They've only run it twice, the same race last year and this year. But, they used different run ups so there really wasn't any kind of baseline to judge the last fraction. On top of that, I'm obviously converting it to match the 1 1/8 races as well, so more noise thrown in.

There were two horses this year that don't show up because they haven't run 1 1/8. Helium hasn't been seen since winning the Tampa Derby at 1 1/16 and King Fury won the Lexington at 1 1/16. I have found those final fractions don't project well to longer distances.

[powerrun]

Thank you kindly for this amazingly helpful Kentucky Derby resource. I am a huge fan of fractional times so thank you again.

[Secondbest]

Inertesting that the top 2 figures rank 6th and 8th respectively. And the 4th best Late is 11th.

[Curln22]

Ty for this information.
However how do I properly interpret it?
Ty
John

[AMPHAR]

Thank you on

[cj]

Originally Posted by Curln22

Ty for this information.
However how do I properly interpret it?
Ty
John

The winner has been rated in the top 5 or so every year for a while I believe, and the exacta been in the top 5 several times too.

2020 Authentic 4th
2019 Max Security Tied 2nd, Country House via DQ was ranked 5th
2018 Justify 1st
2017 Always Dreaming 1st
2016 Nyquist 3rd
2015 American Pharoah 3rd
2014 California Chrome 2nd
2013 Orb 2nd
2012 I'll Have Another 2nd

For some reason I don't have 2011, will look into it.

2010 Super Saver 3rd (Ice Box was 1st)


I was the only person in DRF selections that listed Country House in my top 4 picks in 2019.

[Curln22]

I’m assuming you are referring to the TFUS rankings?
Thank again
GL

[cj]

Originally Posted by Curln22

I’m assuming you are referring to the TFUS rankings?
Thank again
GL

The total on the right which combines TFUS and Last Fraction rankings.

[Vinman]

Originally Posted by sbcaris

In order for a horse to qualify on my final 3/8 angle it must NOT have lost 2 lengths or more from the 6 furlong call to the finish of the big 5 prep race.

Soup and Sandwich does not qualify because he lost more than 2 lengths from the six furlong point to the finish line of the Florida Derby. I have found it to be extremely rare for a Derby winner to lose ground from the six furlong call to the finish line of a big 5 prep..

Stan,

Just to be clear, in additional to Soup and Sandwich, should it be assumed that the following horses listed in the above chart in post # 12 by Trifecta as having a final fraction of 37.4 or faster also do not qualify because of ground loss in the final 6 furlongs.....

Hot Rod Charlie - 37.5

Midnight Bourbon - 37.7

Like the King - 37.8


Vinnie