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08-13-2015, 11:38 AM
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#811
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,887
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Whatever, we can sit back and enjoy the show while it lasts. 
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08-13-2015, 11:52 AM
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#812
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Veteran
Join Date: Feb 2013
Location: Washoe County, Nevada
Posts: 2,253
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I keep reading comments from a few here about how Trump has a real path to the nomination.
First time at the rodeo?
To begin with, while 20%+ looks really impressive in a field of 17, unless he can grow that number it will become inconsequential when the field shrinks. So can he grow it?
His problem is that his negative numbers (those polled who express a negative attitude toward a candidate) are far higher than his positive numbers (twice as many) and higher than any other candidate. That creates a ceiling for him that is markedly lower than other candidates. He has to lower his negative numbers. That is urgent if he expects to win. So can he do it?
The problem is that he carries these negative numbers BEFORE any ads by his well heeled rivals (Bush already has $100 million in the campaign bank). Iowa and all the early primary states will be carpet bombed with anti-Trump ads if he is still around. And they won't be that he said bad things about mexicans, veterans and women. The base doesn't care about that. They will be pointing out his liberal positions and labeling him a closet Democrat.
Suppose he somehow grows a thicker skin between now and then and handles the ads and early losses with panache. Beginning in Mid-March all the primaries are supposed to be winner take all (they aren't but it's close enough). He now needs to win a plurality against a much smaller field while carrying high negatives. It ain't gonna happen.
It's one thing to try to handicap a race from very early betting patterns (Labor Day is the earliest you should think about polls having any meaning). It's another to watch a horse limping in the paddock and think that isn't consequential.
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08-13-2015, 12:14 PM
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#813
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2009
Posts: 12,402
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by classhandicapper
..He wants to maintain 20%-25% (more if possible) ...
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I think the Roger Stone "departure" and subsequent media blitz everywhere is his (their, Trump & Stone) effort at keeping the 25% in the tent while having a strong advocate try to bring a few more skeptical percentage points into the fold without Trump himself having to risk alienating what he has now with a more measure approach that Stone can deliver.
Maybe I give him too much credit, but as much as he isn't a President, he's still a slippery, cagey mover like one.
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"You make me feel like I am fun again."
-Robert James Smith, 1989
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08-13-2015, 12:30 PM
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#814
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Racing Form Detective
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Lincoln, Ne but my heart is at Santa Anita
Posts: 16,316
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The social conservatives control the GOP. Even Trump had to become pro-life in order to run. No presidential candidate for the republican nomination can even run, let alone get the nomination unless he sells his soul to religious nuts that control the party. It is a race to how far to right of their opponents they can get. Rubio is a prime example. He went as far as to oppose abortion in the case of rape and incest. Not one of the other candidates said he went too far for fear of pissing off the pro-lifers. Never mind that over 80% of the public are for those exceptions and it will be an issue in the general as much as the republicans will want to sweep it to get votes under the rug once the convention is over. A moderately conservative business republican has no chance at the nomination. Even if they nominate a businessman such as Romney, he will have to be so far to the right and out of touch with the average voter on social issues that he will have no chance of winning. Even the most moderate republican candidate is further to the right of the center of the average voter than the socialist Bernie Sanders is to the left.
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Some day in the not too distant future, horse players will betting on computer generated races over the net. Race tracks will become casinos and shopping centers. And some crooner will be belting out "there used to be a race track here".
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08-13-2015, 12:48 PM
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#815
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,887
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let alone get the nomination unless he sells his soul to religious nuts that control the party.
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Or is actually opposed to murdering babies for convenience.
Tell me, if you oppose the death penalty, are you also a religious nut?
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08-13-2015, 12:56 PM
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#816
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Racing Form Detective
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Lincoln, Ne but my heart is at Santa Anita
Posts: 16,316
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Originally Posted by Tom
Or is actually opposed to murdering babies for convenience.
Tell me, if you oppose the death penalty, are you also a religious nut?
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Abortion is NOT murdering babies. And, yes, most of the people opposing the death penalty, at least in this country, do so on a religious grounds. A very small, but growing number oppose on costs because it takes so long to execute someone that they die of other causes before they can be executed.
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Some day in the not too distant future, horse players will betting on computer generated races over the net. Race tracks will become casinos and shopping centers. And some crooner will be belting out "there used to be a race track here".
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08-13-2015, 01:28 PM
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#817
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 4,285
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Track Collector
We are at the 2-furlong point of this 1 1/2-mile race. Many horses in the lead at this time can not do the distance.
I tend to agree with Mountainman and classhandicapper that Trump does not expect to win the nomination, but rather leverage his current popularity to a candidate of his liking and issues of personal interest.
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You are assuming that Trump thinks like you and Mountainman or any other normal person. Trump has always aimed high and disregarded the naysayers.
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08-13-2015, 01:32 PM
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#818
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 4,285
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Robert Goren
Abortion is NOT murdering babies....
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You are correct, abortion is not murdering babies. But only because the killing is legal.
mur·der
ˈmərdər/
noun
noun: murder; plural noun: murders
1. the unlawful premeditated killing of one human being by another.
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08-13-2015, 02:27 PM
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#819
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,887
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But our laws no longer count, seeing how the government ignores them.
So we can only go by the laws of nature, and it is unnatural to kill your babies. But then, most liberal defy the laws of nature anyway.
Bobby just think it is cool to put down people who have religious believes - it must make up for something lacking in himself.
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08-13-2015, 02:34 PM
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#820
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: Connecticut
Posts: 128
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The sillyness ion here is unreal
You folks really think Donald Trump actually believes in anything serious?
Here's a guy who imports immigrants to work in low wage jobs at the same time he's railing about illegal immigrants. He's already said he would deport illegals and then adopt laws to make them legal so they can come back in with legal status to work, but never a path to citizenship to vote.
Trump believes in one thing: Making more money for Trump. The strategy is to assemble a following of fools who will make him the new Sarah Palin with his own "network" or "channel" where he can rake in millions with absolutely no real duty to accomplish anything.
The beauty of right-wing politics is you can take a half term governor like Palin, decorate hear as a devout Christian mother despite her two kids they have parented two children outside marriage, with one more on the way, and make her a hero.
So now you take Trump who has never stood for anything principled and he's going to be the new guru of what's good for America. You gotta love it.
Last edited by Thebart; 08-13-2015 at 02:35 PM.
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08-13-2015, 02:43 PM
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#821
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: NJ
Posts: 5,851
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Originally Posted by Greyfox
He's spending an awful lot of his own money just to be a Kingmaker of another Republican who may not win against the Democrats.
Trump is in it to win it, until he sees he can't win it, or maybe he can.
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Agree 100% he isn't looking for any political favors he seems to get those on a regular basis as he stated during the debate. He is going the distance and based on his pedigree he likes 3 turns!
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Remember the NJ horseman got you here now do the right thing with the purses!
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08-13-2015, 02:48 PM
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#822
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: NJ
Posts: 5,851
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Thebart
You folks really think Donald Trump actually believes in anything serious?
Here's a guy who imports immigrants to work in low wage jobs at the same time he's railing about illegal immigrants. He's already said he would deport illegals and then adopt laws to make them legal so they can come back in with legal status to work, but never a path to citizenship to vote.
Trump believes in one thing: Making more money for Trump. The strategy is to assemble a following of fools who will make him the new Sarah Palin with his own "network" or "channel" where he can rake in millions with absolutely no real duty to accomplish anything.
The beauty of right-wing politics is you can take a half term governor like Palin, decorate hear as a devout Christian mother despite her two kids they have parented two children outside marriage, with one more on the way, and make her a hero.
So now you take Trump who has never stood for anything principled and he's going to be the new guru of what's good for America. You gotta love it.
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Just in case you don't watch TV he has had all the Sarah Palin stuff before anyone knew who Sarah Palin was. The Apprentice alone got him into a lot of viewers homes, then came the Celebrity Apprentice, combine that with the beauty pageants and Trump has had as much or more Media exposure than all the candidates combined!
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Remember the NJ horseman got you here now do the right thing with the purses!
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08-13-2015, 06:08 PM
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#823
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: Connecticut
Posts: 128
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not quite trump properties
With the exception of the beauty pageants the other things are "owned" by networks other than Trump. His beauty pageants essentially a big flop here in the states.
None of this, of course, has anything to do with the reality that Trump had no longstanding values before being a candidate and he has none now.
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08-13-2015, 06:10 PM
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#824
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2004
Location: New Hampshire
Posts: 14,487
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Trump is using the gipper's ideas.
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08-13-2015, 08:33 PM
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#825
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,887
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Thebart
You folks really think Donald Trump actually believes in anything serious?
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More so than Obama, Reid, Pelosi, Clinton.
Your point?
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None of this, of course, has anything to do with the reality that Trump had no longstanding values before being a candidate and he has none now.
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So what?
As Obama has shown, no values are required to be president.
Why, the whole dem party goes out it was to mock values.
Most dems would not know a value if they tripped over one!
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Last edited by Tom; 08-13-2015 at 08:36 PM.
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