Orb checklist. Humbling game?

[Stillriledup]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

I was responding to Dilanesp...who had suggested that not all 3/5 shots are bad bets...and that "betting on a 3/5 shot is the same as betting on a 10/1 shot".

I would never consider betting on a 3/5 shot to win...but some people are different. They actually think that there is value to be found in all odds groups...and who am I to disagree with them...especially when we are all entitled to our opinions?

Is there value to be found in a 3/5 shot? I suppose...if a Secretariat or a Zenyatta were to make a return appearance -- but that's not how I like to play this game.

If i get a 3-5 who really should be 1-5 i have no problem making a large wager and taking the 'free money' as a 'value play'.

Also remember, if you bet 5k to win on a 3-5, you make 3k profit. 3-5 shots are usually reserved for large bettors because if you're a 20 dollar bettor, its not going to do you one bit of good to bet 20 to get back 32. But if you're betting 5k, you're profiting 3k and 3k isnt anything to sneeze at.

[tucker6]

Originally Posted by Stillriledup

If i get a 3-5 who really should be 1-5 i have no problem making a large wager and taking the 'free money' as a 'value play'.

Also remember, if you bet 5k to win on a 3-5, you make 3k profit. 3-5 shots are usually reserved for large bettors because if you're a 20 dollar bettor, its not going to do you one bit of good to bet 20 to get back 32. But if you're betting 5k, you're profiting 3k and 3k isnt anything to sneeze at.

Anyone able to bet 5k on the nose of a 3/5 isn't likely to be having this betting philosophy discussion anyway.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Stillriledup

If i get a 3-5 who really should be 1-5 i have no problem making a large wager and taking the 'free money' as a 'value play'.

Also remember, if you bet 5k to win on a 3-5, you make 3k profit. 3-5 shots are usually reserved for large bettors because if you're a 20 dollar bettor, its not going to do you one bit of good to bet 20 to get back 32. But if you're betting 5k, you're profiting 3k and 3k isnt anything to sneeze at.

Isn't a value play a value play...whether you bet $20 or $5,000?

What does the betting unit have to do with the element of value?

[raybo]

Originally Posted by Stillriledup

If i get a 3-5 who really should be 1-5 i have no problem making a large wager and taking the 'free money' as a 'value play'.

Also remember, if you bet 5k to win on a 3-5, you make 3k profit. 3-5 shots are usually reserved for large bettors because if you're a 20 dollar bettor, its not going to do you one bit of good to bet 20 to get back 32. But if you're betting 5k, you're profiting 3k and 3k isnt anything to sneeze at.

Let's see, a player only bets $50 to win because that is a sizeable bet to him, and wins $30 on a 3/5, a 60% profit. Another player bets $5000 to win on the same 3/5 because that's a sizeable bet for him, and makes $3000, a 60% profit. It doesn't matter whether you bet $50 or $5000 the bet is still producing a 60% profit, which is good for anyone.

However, most every horse in every race has a pretty good chance of losing any race they enter, regardless of how good they look to the player. 3/5 odds really means that your assessment of the horse's probability of winning must be almost a lock, so you say the horse should be 1/5 (you're saying the horse is, indeed, an absolute lock to win), the horse can still lose right? Or, are you going to say that the horse is guaranteed to win? Go ahead and bet those odds, but don't quit the game until after I die, please.

Last time I checked, the only thing guaranteed in this game is that if there is no money bet there will be no races to bet on.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by raybo

Let's see, a player only bets $50 to win because that is a sizeable bet to him, and wins $30 on a 3/5, a 60% profit. Another player bets $5000 to win on the same 3/5 because that's a sizeable bet for him, and makes $3000, a 60% profit. It doesn't matter whether you bet $50 or $5000 the bet is still producing a 60% profit, which is good for anyone.

However, most every horse in every race has a pretty good chance of losing any race they enter, regardless of how good they look to the player. 3/5 odds really means that your assessment of the horse's probability of winning must be almost a lock, so you say the horse should be 1/5 (you're saying the horse is, indeed, an absolute lock to win), the horse can still lose right? Or, are you going to say that the horse is guaranteed to win? Go ahead and bet those odds, but don't quit the game until after I die, please.

Last time I checked, the only thing guaranteed in this game is that if there is no money bet there will be no races to bet on.

And with the emergence of the racinos...even this is not a guarantee any longer.

[raybo]

Originally Posted by tucker6

Anyone able to bet 5k on the nose of a 3/5 isn't likely to be having this betting philosophy discussion anyway.

That's correct, anyone who can afford to bet $5000 on a 3/5 shouldn't mind when they lose it right? Why would they try to justify betting a 3/5, unless that's all they know how to do? Not saying the poster is in that category, but I'll be danged of I can figure out how anyone gets value out of such low odds, they must be almost perfect in their assessments of horses, or else they're full of it in the first place.

[raybo]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

And with the emergence of the racinos...even this is not a guarantee any longer.

LOL, hadn't thought about that! Dang, it's worse than I thought.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Originally Posted by raybo

He probably never, ever, bets a 3/5 horse to win. I certainly wouldn't, unless perhaps, he would have to break his leg in order to lose, meaning he's a grade 1 horse running in a $2500 claimer. There aren't many match races anymore so that possibility is out too.

Just consider what the 3/5 odds are saying about the "supposed" probability of the horse winning. That should tell you that NO 3/5 is worth a win bet, because we all know, or at least most of us know, anything can happen in the running of a race.

Exactly.Ray last year in slightly over 500 key horses I bet 4 at odds of less than 2-1.6/5 to me isn't worth it,much less 3/5.

[Stillriledup]

Originally Posted by raybo

Let's see, a player only bets $50 to win because that is a sizeable bet to him, and wins $30 on a 3/5, a 60% profit. Another player bets $5000 to win on the same 3/5 because that's a sizeable bet for him, and makes $3000, a 60% profit. It doesn't matter whether you bet $50 or $5000 the bet is still producing a 60% profit, which is good for anyone.

However, most every horse in every race has a pretty good chance of losing any race they enter, regardless of how good they look to the player. 3/5 odds really means that your assessment of the horse's probability of winning must be almost a lock, so you say the horse should be 1/5 (you're saying the horse is, indeed, an absolute lock to win), the horse can still lose right? Or, are you going to say that the horse is guaranteed to win? Go ahead and bet those odds, but don't quit the game until after I die, please.

Last time I checked, the only thing guaranteed in this game is that if there is no money bet there will be no races to bet on.

All true what you say. My point was that unless you're making a massive play to win, you're not going to bother with 3-5 shots. People betting 2's and 4's are betting longshots, they don't want to bet 2 and get back 3. But if you're betting 5k, you can make a 3k profit, i know its all relative, but 3k is still 3k even if 3k isnt all that much to a particular bettor in the big scheme of things.

[Valuist]

Originally Posted by Stillriledup

If i get a 3-5 who really should be 1-5 i have no problem making a large wager and taking the 'free money' as a 'value play'.

Also remember, if you bet 5k to win on a 3-5, you make 3k profit. 3-5 shots are usually reserved for large bettors because if you're a 20 dollar bettor, its not going to do you one bit of good to bet 20 to get back 32. But if you're betting 5k, you're profiting 3k and 3k isnt anything to sneeze at.

How often is a horse 3-5 who should be 1-5? I usually make my own lines, and I can't remember the last time I ever felt 1-5 was a legit price. Ever.

[MightBeSosa]

I can pretty much guarantee that if you offered pro's 3/5 on any horse, without draconian limits on the type of spot, you would soon be deeply underwater.

They will probably win at LEAST 2 out of 3 which is 6.40 back for 6.00 wagered. Better than the bank.

Of course, if you're booking the bets of pro's you're probably going to lose no matter what they play.


The any thing can happen part is true, but 3/5 is not 1/5.

PS I'm talking about pro's. Not the talking heads you see on TV

[pondman]

Originally Posted by raybo

I refuse to banter with someone who admits he doesn't understand what I said, but then says that whatever I meant is wrong.

There's nothing random about horse racing...

Your math makes no sense...It's got a ridiculous assumption and a ridiculous conclusion. And the middle is arbitrary.

Orb was a lousy bet before, and he was a lousy bet after... If you are a fan, you can stick with him later this fall and you'll get your money back, but give him a rest, because he's a little tired.

[pondman]

Originally Posted by MightBeSosa

I can pretty much guarantee that if you offered pro's 3/5 on any horse, without draconian limits on the type of spot, you would soon be deeply underwater.

Do you mean outside the conventions of a mutual pool?

Guarantee?

That's a horrendous bet in the world of horse racing.

[pondman]

Originally Posted by Stillriledup

If i get a 3-5 who really should be 1-5 i have no problem making a large wager and taking the 'free money' as a 'value play'.
.

Do you have a method that can split value into these types of hairs?

[Stillriledup]

Originally Posted by Valuist

How often is a horse 3-5 who should be 1-5? I usually make my own lines, and I can't remember the last time I ever felt 1-5 was a legit price. Ever.

I think there are studies that show the lower end of the board is really underbet from an ROI standpoint. Maybe someone can show us (Jeff?) what the ROI is for every odd, i think that you might see 1-5 and 2-5 shots are actually underbet by the crowd, but i don't know what the actual stats show.

As far as horses paying 3.20 who should be 1-5, they come along on occasion, but you're right, i can't imagine there are too many of them laying around.