Woodward Stakes

[keithw84]

Haven't seen a lot of talk about this race yet. What do you all think of Havre de Grace's chances? Is Flat Out that good?

[toussaud]

honestly, i don't see how she loses. if she were a male with the same track record going against these she would be 2/5.


this field, is really not that good. Scott Hazleton earlier today on HRTV was like "this field lacks something".. i was thinking "yes it does, lol, talent". Flat out ran a bang up race once, a few others from time to time, but HDG if she runs her race, and no horse just runs out of their mind should win and win with something left IMHO.

[letswastemoney]

Originally Posted by toussaud

honestly, i don't see how she loses. if she were a male with the same track record going against these she would be 2/5.


this field, is really not that good. Scott Hazleton earlier today on HRTV was like "this field lacks something".. i was thinking "yes it does, lol, talent". Flat out ran a bang up race once, a few others from time to time, but HDG if she runs her race, and no horse just runs out of their mind should win and win with something left IMHO.

If she were a male she would have been barred from every race she won. It would be impossible to have the same track record, every race she's been in has been restricted.

[ArlJim78]

I don't see HDG as any kind of cinch here, she'll be way over bet.

[toussaud]

Originally Posted by letswastemoney

If she were a male she would have been barred from every race she won. It would be impossible to have the same track record, every race she's been in has been restricted.

this is a very astute point you make here.

anyway, i like her, and to be frank don't even think she will be all out to win. But can't take the price, yet can't beat her, plus there is alot of college football on tomorrow so i'll just pass


IMHO HDG and blind luck are lengths better than any horse in training going 9-10F. I really believe that.

[Some_One]

According to my NP OOP object, she's far away #1, quite surprising, are the boys really that bad this year?

[toussaud]

Originally Posted by Some_One

According to my NP OOP object, she's far away #1, quite surprising, are the boys really that bad this year?

yes

[precocity]

giant oak by a nose

[Ocala Mike]

I'm using ICE BOX on my ticket. 3 bullets in a row, and "indicated" last time with that uncharacteristic gate speed. Zito overdue.


Ocala Mike

[turninforhome10]

If Havre De Grace wins against males in the 1-1/8 classic she would truly have to be considered as one of the best this year. My question is the quality of the speed she has faced. At Delaware while being game till the end she faced a weak field of early speed and really was not pressed on the pace. Tiz Miz Sue's performance in the Personal Ensign gives indicator of previous pace class for me.If speed to the first turn gets her caught wide she could be in trouble.
I wonder if Rule and Mission Ipazible have been working together since the dates on workouts are same.
I am going out on limb here and going to suggest that if Rule is allowed to get a lead through mile in 1:36 Castellano can get him home based on his game win in the Birdstone and his effort against Kensai and Soaring Empire. I know his class is suspect but he looks to be finally putting it all together. If he goes he has the speed to get the rail and or stay out and force the speed wide.
The big question in this one is early pace and Castellano could put Rule on the Engine and back it down enough to dash for home and keep the closers at a bay.
SARATOGA 09-03-2011 RACE 10 OF 12
9.0f DIRT THREE-YEAR-OLDS AND UPWARD
GRADE I STK/HCP PURSE: $750000

PGM HORSE ODDS JOCKEY TRAINER OOF
4 RULE 5.0 CASTELLANO J. PLETCHER T. A.
8 MAMBO MEISTER 10.0 JARA F. GLEAVES P. A.
6 HAVRE DE GRACE 1.6 DOMINGUEZ R. A. JONES J. L.
2 MISSION IMPAZIBLE 10.0 VELAZQUEZ J. R. PLETCHER T. A.
7 FLAT OUT 2.5 SOLIS A. O. DICKEY C. L.
3 GIANT OAK 8.0 BRIDGMOHAN S. BLOCK C. M.
5 CONVOCATION 20.0 MARAGH R. JERKENS J. A.
1 ICE BOX 12.0 LEZCANO J. ZITO N. P.

[Relwob Owner]

HDG is a terrific horse but I think if she is favorite, she will be a great bet against. I dont think she will get first or second here. I am boxing Flat Out, Mission I and Giant Oak. If Flat Out stays near the M/L of 5 to 2, will probably bet him but if he gets bet down will take a look at Mission I if 8 to 1 or better.

[iceknight]

"Horses are the same as human beings where condition is the test of superiority."

There is the question of the quality of the speed and then there is the question of the fighting quality in the horse. HDG seems to have a great fighting spirit.. so, this race will be decided on the track!! but obviously I dont like the odds on her to win! wish it was more spread out!

[cj]

I will be very surprised is she can handle the pace today. All of her wins have come in moderately to slow paced races. I don't see that happening today.

[classhandicapper]

If they were going to try the boys, this is probably the right spot. For a Grade 1 race, the field is not particularly deep with actual Grade 1 talent and Tizway (who IMO is the best older horse and clearly better than her at 9F) is not here.

Personally, I think Flat Out is an improving and legitimate horse, but he is picking up 9 pounds. So it could be close.

If she can't finish at least 2nd in this race, it will demonstrate how hard it is for fillies and mares (even very very good ones) to compete against boys in dirt routes (and even more so at 10F)

[toussaud]

i agree class, flat out is her real test