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Old 08-31-2020, 04:01 AM   #106
clicknow
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wish I knew what Biancone is doing with Sole.......so mysterious. Training on turf, etc. No workout videos, etc. ?
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Old 08-31-2020, 11:51 AM   #107
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My Top 5 for the win as of 8/11/2020 posted were:

--Major Fed
--Honor A.P.

--Art Collector
--Country Grammer
--Dr.Post


Since 2 of those are out, I'll just keep Honor AP and Major Fed for now.

Add Enforceable.


No idea yet who will be in my exotics.

ANyone get a long term weather report? If slop I'm not playing.
Chance of showers Wednesday and Thursday. Partly sunny Friday and sunny Saturday.
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Old 08-31-2020, 01:10 PM   #108
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wish I knew what Biancone is doing with Sole.......so mysterious. Training on turf, etc. No workout videos, etc. ?
Here is a small bit for you on SV. He is this year's enigma...


https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-rac...y-at-churchill


Quote:
Making his first appearance beneath the Twin Spires was Sole Volante, who arrived the previous morning after vanning to Churchill Downs from Florida. The Sam F. Davis Stakes (G3) winner jogged beneath Andie Biancone, assistant to her father, Patrick Biancone.
Andie Biancone co-owns the Karakontie gelding with Reeves Thoroughbred Racing.
He is unraced since finishing sixth in the Belmont Stakes, a lackluster performance that came on short rest. He comes into the Kentucky Derby with more time, aimed to produce a better finish.
"He's never felt this good. I'm really hoping runs a good race," Andie Biancone said. "It's just so amazing to be in the Kentucky Derby."
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Old 08-31-2020, 01:25 PM   #109
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IMO, they need to be smart with Sole Volante. Keep him off the pace, and try to run down the front runners. Think this is how he has run his best races. Thought he was way to close to the front in the Belmont.
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Old 09-02-2020, 06:56 PM   #110
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Tiz The Law
Major Fred
Enforceable
Winning Impression
Sole Volante
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Old 09-02-2020, 07:45 PM   #111
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Originally Posted by groupie doll View Post
s Max Player the only potential runner with Buckpasser in the X?

That angle didn't work too well last year...one horse ran 4th (tacitus): Pretty sure these all had Buckpasser-X from memory:

Omaha Beach
Win Win Win
Tacitus
Game Winner
Vekoma
Improbable
Spinoff
Tax


One of my angles last year was that a storm cat would finish 5th and a tapit 4th, and that actaully came to pass (cutting humor, tacitus)

Last edited by clicknow; 09-02-2020 at 07:50 PM.
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Old 09-02-2020, 08:54 PM   #112
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My strongest "angle" last year was that Max would win.

Cutting humor.
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Old 09-02-2020, 08:58 PM   #113
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The two horses that crossed the line first last year were Raise A Native line. I doubt it happens this year but will use a few in my vertical gimmicks.
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Old 09-02-2020, 11:09 PM   #114
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I'm surprised to not see Authentic and Ny Traffic more in people's top 5.

I know Authentic has distance concerns, but I still think he is a likelier winner than many.

I also think Ny Traffic is a great bet to key in the second spot. I probably won't take my own advice, though, and will be later...
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Old 09-04-2020, 01:22 PM   #115
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updated-
1. Tiz the Law
2. Art Collector
3. Caracaro
4. Max Player
5. Honor AP

HMs- King Guillermo, NY Traffic


If TTL runs his race and has a clean trip the rest are running for second.

1. Tiz the Law
2. Honor AP
3. Max Player
4. Thousand Words
5. Attachment Rate


HMs- Money Moves, Major Fed, Enforceable, Sole Volante
I don't like Authentic much here, which means he'll probably win. The recent defections would seem to increase his chances somewhat.
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Old 09-04-2020, 07:27 PM   #116
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I've been high on Honor AP all spring and summer as a horse that could develop a lot because Shirreffs tends to develop his horses slowly. I didn't hate his last race, but even with the wide trip against flow that was hardly a Derby field. I'm going to use him, especially if he's downgraded by the public because he lost his last race, but I'm not quite as enthusiastic as I was and I'm not sure I trust that 102 Beyer off his last.
I listened to a few podcasts and heard several very smart people say they also don't trust the commercial speed figures for the Shared Belief even though it fits with the day.

When I mentioned this here, I thought I was bringing something worthwhile to the discussion. Maybe since all the "sharpies" are skeptical of the figure for that race also, I should be thinking in the opposite direction for value.

That figure "could" be inflated even though it fit with the rest of the day, but Honor A.P.'s overall record is better than the lesser looking horses that finished close to him that day. So maybe they all aren't as good as they look on numbers, but the slowish pace and his trip means he ran just fine and can make the favorite stretch his legs if Sheriffs has him cranked for a new top.

Unfortunately, it was also mentioned that Cezanne is running out of Shared Belief in the 9th race tomorrow in the Pat Day. So that may offer some kind of clue about the quality of that race.
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Old 09-05-2020, 12:36 AM   #117
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I listened to a few podcasts and heard several very smart people say they also don't trust the commercial speed figures for the Shared Belief even though it fits with the day.

When I mentioned this here, I thought I was bringing something worthwhile to the discussion. Maybe since all the "sharpies" are skeptical of the figure for that race also, I should be thinking in the opposite direction for value.

That figure "could" be inflated even though it fit with the rest of the day, but Honor A.P.'s overall record is better than the lesser looking horses that finished close to him that day. So maybe they all aren't as good as they look on numbers, but the slowish pace and his trip means he ran just fine and can make the favorite stretch his legs if Sheriffs has him cranked for a new top.

Unfortunately, it was also mentioned that Cezanne is running out of Shared Belief in the 9th race tomorrow in the Pat Day. So that may offer some kind of clue about the quality of that race.
@ Class
The trick to the Shared Belief was the final 3/16th......it was solid,(remember Del Mar has played very slow this meet)they came home the right way.
I rated the race strong.......I think the quality was there.
You mentioned Cezanne,he's going to be tough to evaluate tomorrow......the rail was miserable today,and if you had speed on the inside you were screwed.
Going a one turn mile near the front tomorrow from the heavy inside is almost a line through the race before it starts for Cezanne.
In another thread I thought I saw you mention you weren't as high on Tiz the Law as most......I don't like him tomorrow.
I know he's going to be a huge favorite,and alot of people are crowning him the one.........but I just don't like the horses he's been beating.
Can he win.......of course......heck he'll be sixty cents on the dollar in the Derby......but I think he gets beat.
Good luck with all your wagers tomorrow.

Last edited by taxicab; 09-05-2020 at 12:49 AM.
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Old 09-05-2020, 12:53 AM   #118
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I'm in this thread,so I should put up my top 5:

1) Storm the Court
2) Thousand Words
3) Audible
4) Enforceable
5) Honor A.P.
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Old 09-05-2020, 05:46 AM   #119
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Top 5 for the WIN (not exotic plays) as of 8/11/2020

--Major Fed
--Honor A.P.
--Art Collector
--Country Grammer
--Dr.Post


Left off Sole Volante but if he goes I will use. I believe that he may not, and has no race recency and is being trained on turf. Fitness would be a question here.

Guess I'm the only Major Fed fan so far, looking at people's lists?



I really liked Rushie but he is not TC nominated so they would have to pay to get him in. And pretty sure Swiss Skydiver and Storm the Court will give up their gate ticket as well.

So I will have to delve into the ones on the leaderboard who have not made the gate yet, as I am quite sure there will be several who don't keep their ticket.

And yes, TTL is not on my WIN list. At least not for now. He's a FREAK, so I have to go over him a lot more carefully in the coming weeks

I may have to do a write up on one of my guys, Major Fed. But I'm thrilled he is getting ignored.

I have Thousand Words down for a board hit.

Well I really haven't changed my mind much since beginning of August, except to fill in for new shooters and scratches.

So still using Honor A. P, Major Fed, Sole Volante, and Thousand Words.
Add new shooter South Bend. Add Enforceable on some tickets and leave Tiz off top of a few, but these are the only horses I'm using in exactas and tris:

Honor AP
South Bend
Major Fed
Sole Volante
Tiz the Law
Thousand Words
Enforceable

If playing Super High Five add and to 5th spot.

I'm thinking Honor A.P.will win this. Longshot to win: Major Fed or South Bend


Max seems like a tired horse to me, and authentic just not right race for him here, Money Moves looks like a vanity entry and never carried weight. Gonna try to delete one more horse after I see how track is playing. I usually get by with a 6 horse box and I like that number of horses.

Last edited by clicknow; 09-05-2020 at 06:00 AM.
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Old 09-05-2020, 09:17 AM   #120
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@ Class
the rail was miserable today,and if you had speed on the inside you were screwed.

In another thread I thought I saw you mention you weren't as high on Tiz the Law as most......I don't like him tomorrow.

Good luck with all your wagers tomorrow.
1. I haven't reviewed the replays yet, but I made several comments on Twitter yesterday suggesting that the rail did not look like the best place to be. I saw no comments about that anywhere yesterday until yours here. I still want to review the results before making a final note, but it could be different today anyway.

2. I think Tiz the Law is very good and clearly the deserving favorite, but imo he hasn't faced a legitimately good horse yet. Also, if you draw a line through his last "speed figure", he's not much faster than a few others. If you think it's 100% he's going to duplicate his last figure (or improve it) and have no concern about the fact he may get tested for the first time, then 3/5 probably seems reasonable. When I think of 3/5 and 4/5 shots I think of horses that are consistently better against similar competition.

3. Same to you.
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