Final fractions

[Canhoto]

Does anyone know where to find the final fractions for the derby prep races (final 1/8 & 3/8)? I have saw it posted here the last several years, but have not saw it this year???

[46zilzal]

Originally Posted by Canhoto

Does anyone know where to find the final fractions for the derby prep races (final 1/8 & 3/8)? I have saw it posted here the last several years, but have not saw it this year???

Go to Equibase full charts and they breakdown the pace of race for each..Add in the effect of the beaten lengths and there you go

[SkunkApe]

Originally Posted by Canhoto

Does anyone know where to find the final fractions for the derby prep races (final 1/8 & 3/8)? I have saw it posted here the last several years, but have not saw it this year???

I made an Excel spreadsheet with the final fractions for last 9-furlong races.
I think I did it right.

PM me if you want it.

[Raider]

Given the way this years trail has gone do any of the factors we use for the derby have value?

[SkunkApe]

Originally Posted by Raider

Given the way this years trail has gone do any of the factors we use for the derby have value?

Not sure. But it’s something to play around with while I wait.

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by Raider

Given the way this years trail has gone do any of the factors we use for the derby have value?

I think so. In general, you still need to be fast and have some closing energy at 9F to win at 10F. I wouldn't throw class out the window. Lots of extra preps this year but very few extra G1 races that Derby winners typically come out of.

[Raider]

The Final Fraction times will be useful for those horse who have not raced more than 9f, to answer the question can the go 10f. The horses that have done 10f and 9.5f races have that question answered.

[SkunkApe]

Originally Posted by SkunkApe

I made an Excel spreadsheet with the final fractions for last 9-furlong races.
I think I did it right.

PM me if you want it.

Note: I can't figure out how to attach files in PM.

If you want my file, you'll need to PM me your email address.

[hracingplyr]

In Jim Lehane's Calibration Handicapping book he teaches how to calculate final fractions. In talking to Jim around 10 yrs ago I asked him how he goes about handicapping the Kentucky Derby. He told me in the horse's last race he likes to see a final quarter in 24 and change and the final eight in 12 and change.

Bob

[f2tornado]

Stanley Caris practically wrote a novel on the topic. He used to post on here. I remember dropping about $40 on this plus selections back in the day. It's old but has worked every year since.
Analyzing the Triple Crown

[Raider]

I have used it is as well. This year with horses having raced both 9.5f and 10f, are you going to use the one for the belmont?

[SkunkApe]

Originally Posted by Raider

I have used it is as well. This year with horses having raced both 9.5f and 10f, are you going to use the one for the belmont?

If this question was directed at me, the Belmont was 9 furlongs.

On my chart, I just used 9 furlong races, and for horses that subsequently races 10f (Travers) I made a note in my “comments” section”.

The theory, as I understand it, is to predict how horses will do at a mile and a quarter, based on mile and an eight races. If they already ran at a mile and a quarter, the need to predict is less.

If they have not run yet at 9f, we can’t use this theory.

(Also, I‘m just mostly playing around, and so that if I happen to stumble on the winning ticket, I can say “See!?! It’s science.)

[Raider]

Yes, it was, sorry. Thanks

[groupie doll]

Does anyone have the final 3/8ths already figured for Money Moves, South Bend, Mr Big News, and Winning Impression?
Otherwise I can figure it myself, but there are prob others better at it.

Mostly curious about the Pletcher horse...

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by groupie doll

Mostly curious about the Pletcher horse...

Final 9F time of 1:50.04 - 6F time of 1:12.22 = 37.82. MM did make up approx two lengths from the 6F pole = a -0.4 second adjustment (using 5L/second). MM final 3/8th in approx 37.42.