Travis Stone doing ML at Saratoga

[cj]

Why do people get hung up on morning lines? I don't get it but maybe somebody can explain. You want to see a bad morning line, check out the Haskell---not that I care.

I see terrible morning lines at smaller tracks all the time and they don't influence the betting one iota.

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by cj

Why do people get hung up on morning lines? I don't get it but maybe somebody can explain. You want to see a bad morning line, check out the Haskell---not that I care.

I see terrible morning lines at smaller tracks all the time and they don't influence the betting one iota.

No one can explain it, as we keep coming back to this very truth, over and over again:

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...4&postcount=15

[SG4]

Originally Posted by ronsmac

He made Flintshire the 1/5 morning line favorite. That's a realistic line. Why he didn't make Songbird 1/5 or 2/5 was a little strange.

The CCAO was quite hard to figure for just how far apart the odds on the two faves were gonna be. Songbird's got all the backing of an undefeated champion but she was up against it with several factors that made it hard (for me at least) to really view her as superior to Carina Mia in that race. For all the big players that rely on Thorograph, those sheets loved Carina Mia. It all just made the result that much more impressive.

I thought the California Chrome/Dortmund match was gonna have the same betting as the CCAO, was shocked that he actually returned 4/5 there, thought he was more likely to be 1/5 than Songbird.

[SG4]

Originally Posted by cj

You want to see a bad morning line, check out the Haskell---not that I care.

I see the ML on this race as just right, care to explain what's so awful? Do you see Nyquist more as a 3-5 shot, make the 2 longest shots 30-1?

[Pigpen]

Originally Posted by cj

Why do people get hung up on morning lines? I don't get it but maybe somebody can explain. You want to see a bad morning line, check out the Haskell---not that I care.

I see terrible morning lines at smaller tracks all the time and they don't influence the betting one iota.

On horizontal wagers the ML may influence the public. JMO

[cj]

Originally Posted by SG4

I see the ML on this race as just right, care to explain what's so awful? Do you see Nyquist more as a 3-5 shot, make the 2 longest shots 30-1?

The total percentages are too high.

[cj]

Originally Posted by Pigpen

On horizontal wagers the ML may influence the public. JMO

I think that is a bit of a myth. Sure, maybe people that are betting a few bucks might be lazy and just use the ML, but I don't think any real bettors are using it.

[ronsmac]

Originally Posted by the little guy

Because he made a mistake. It happens. I made a few today myself. You should try it sometimes. It can be cathartic.

As you saw in my previous post I did a triple take when she was listed at 4/5. So I did make a ml for the race. Even you wouldn't have made Songbird 4/5 in a 5 horse field with one contender.

[ronsmac]

Originally Posted by Pigpen

On horizontal wagers the ML may influence the public. JMO

I agree that they have some influence. Oaklawn Park for sure. Whoever made the ml at Santa Anita in the early 2000s was the best linemaker I've come across. If a horse was icey in the early betting based on his ml, he would be bet down late and usually underperformed.

[v j stauffer]

Originally Posted by ronsmac

I agree that they have some influence. Oaklawn Park for sure. Whoever made the ml at Santa Anita in the early 2000s was the best linemaker I've come across. If a horse was icey in the early betting based on his ml, he would be bet down late and usually underperformed.

Jon White has been making the morning line at Santa Anita for many years. Before him it was Jeff Tufts.

Don't know when the switch was made. Both excellent IMO.

[v j stauffer]

Originally Posted by the little guy

Because he made a mistake. It happens. I made a few today myself. You should try it sometimes. It can be cathartic.

If that's true I should be the Pope by now.

[oddsmaven]

Originally Posted by SG4

I see the ML on this race as just right, care to explain what's so awful? Do you see Nyquist more as a 3-5 shot, make the 2 longest shots 30-1?

I'll chime in as I too noticed that the Haskell line is bad...and to add to CJ's reason, it's ridiculous to have American Freedom with more play than Gun Runner.

I agree with Travis' ml on the Jim Dandy, as I see it close to what he projected.

[cj]

Originally Posted by v j stauffer

Jon White has been making the morning line at Santa Anita for many years. Before him it was Jeff Tufts.

Don't know when the switch was made. Both excellent IMO.

Jon White's line is often WAY too high percentage wise.

[classhandicapper]

The MLs for important stakes can occasionally be off because the line makers sometimes have to turn it around immediately after the draw. There can be late defections and changes they are unaware of until very late. Not sure if that's the case for the Haskell. I probably would have made Sunny Ridge longer than 20-1, but it's unlikely they would put really long odds on a horse owned by the guy so involved with running the track (Drazin).

[oddsmaven]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

The MLs for important stakes can occasionally be off because the line makers sometimes have to turn it around immediately after the draw. There can be late defections and changes they are unaware of until very late. Not sure if that's the case for the Haskell. I probably would have made Sunny Ridge longer than 20-1, but it's unlikely they would put really long odds on a horse owned by the guy so involved with running the track (Drazin).

Class,
I'd add another possibility why the ml odds in big races can more easily be off at times...perhaps because there are a lot more unsophisticated/casual bettors playing those races...and another reason in the Haskell specifically, since Exaggerator has standout "slop race" efforts, he would attract considerable more money, should it end up on an off track. (There's some rain in the forecast.)