Surface Changes

[classhandicapper]

Anyone want to share any insights into how they handle surface changes?

I pride myself on having at explored every factor in the game to the point that I feel comfortable I understand how to handle it with decent level of competence and also know how it interrelates with the other factors.

After 35 years I am almost as clueless as I was on day 1 in handling surface changes.

It has never been more apparent than at this Saratoga meet. I love Saratoga, but there's isn't a snowball's chance in hell I can form an opinion and make a bet on at least a few races day because of all the "first time turf" and "first time starters on turf" on each card. Day to day this is always an issue for me and forces me to pass a lot of races. So if someone is willing to share anything, I'm all ears.

[Tom]

First or second time turf, I use mostly breeding and trainer stats. I completely ignore any dirt line. I don't care if they ran a world records or were distanced. Dirt is brown, grass is green. Proven losers on turf are usually automatic throw outs for win.

Turf to dirt, ok if I can find dirt lines to use. I never combine them.
Off the turf - I look real close at MTO horses and poor turf horses who show good dirt form at some point.

Turf to poly - no problem - don't ever blink about it.
Poly to turf - usually I won't play unless there are good turf lines to look at.

Dirt to poly - a throw out
Poly to dirt - look for improvement if poly form shows anything good. I have no problem using a poly horse, but his poly lines need to be adjusted.

I don't spend two minutes a week wondering about any changes. The only adjusting I do for any changes is CJ's poly-to-dirt formula. If the horse come up good there, I am more than happy.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

Anyone want to share any insights into how they handle surface changes?

this is one of those topics where it's hard to give away too much free bread.

It's a stimulating topic... I'll try to add something...

It starts with the softballs where it's very clear with breeding, trainer patterns, works, etc... where you have a HIGH% and those are pretty much basic ones.

with the puzzles, you look for the specific qualities or virtues (good and bad) of the horse and apply that to the specific racecourse.

beyond pedigree -you've got specialists that exploit(or need) a certain surface and trip, and then you have versatile types.

with animal kingdom his virtues made him a high probability surface switch success story. animal kingdom had actually run on dirt under randy bradshaw, who did a great job with this horse, and was nice enough to respond to an email. He broke the horse in fla., sent to WC in june, got him back after the maiden win and fresh until jan... Have to credit RB some for this horse's extremely professional demeanor, and probably some as well for being open with the trainers that this horse could handle a surface


so you can get intensive with a possible value play when you see a potential versatile talent, but really the fundamentals are 99% of it.

[Capper Al]

I use pedigree, workouts, and connections. Workouts first. If I consider a horse to be a contender then I'll look at the pedigree and connections. Only use speed to separate contenders that have 5 or more races.

[Robert Goren]

Then there is the veriest forms of fast dirt tracks such as cuppy. If can figure them out, you will have a huge edge.

[Capper Al]

Originally Posted by CapperAl

I use pedigree, workouts, and connections. Workouts first. If I consider a horse to be a contender then I'll look at the pedigree and connections. Only use speed to separate contenders that have 5 or more races.

I was replying to the bit about first time starters, maidens, and 2 year olds. For other surface changes, I use charts that translate dirt to turf and visa versa for approximation with BRIS speed figures. As always, speed is only part of the process of handicapping.

[gm10]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

Anyone want to share any insights into how they handle surface changes?

I pride myself on having at explored every factor in the game to the point that I feel comfortable I understand how to handle it with decent level of competence and also know how it interrelates with the other factors.

After 35 years I am almost as clueless as I was on day 1 in handling surface changes.

It has never been more apparent than at this Saratoga meet. I love Saratoga, but there's isn't a snowball's chance in hell I can form an opinion and make a bet on at least a few races day because of all the "first time turf" and "first time starters on turf" on each card. Day to day this is always an issue for me and forces me to pass a lot of races. So if someone is willing to share anything, I'm all ears.

If it's first time turf, I usually look at the horse's previous running style, and early/middle/late numbers. What I do with that information, depends on the course (+possible bias), distance and class of the race. I especially pay attention to the class of the race. The lower level turf routes aren't necessarily that advantageous to the best late speed (simply because the late speed on offer isn't good enough). A dirt horse with tactical speed and some decent combined middle/late action can often do surprisingly well in such races.

For the first-time poly, I pay attention to similar things, f.e. the horse needs to have shown some tactical speed on the dirt/turf. On top of that - and very importantly imo - the jockey needs to be alert and a good judge of pace. Having an attentive, thinking jockey is more important on the poly than it is on the dirt (and even the turf) in my view.

[oddsmaven]

Class,

This is the hardest factor for me as well...can't pinpoint it but do my best by considering the following:

for horses with just a few career races, i'll be more accepting of the handling of a surface change...i'll look at the trainer to see what their skills are but mainly i'd take the approach that in this country, the dirt horses are generally better, so i might look at the move to turf as a bit of a drop in class, and to dirt as a small raise.

For those with a longer career behind them, i would lean towards betting against most any trying a surface change...for horses that seem to handle either, i'd want them to have shown it fairly recently - within the last few months.