James Marvin Stakes at Spa - longwinded analysis

[oddsmaven]

This is a tough race to handicap…I’m leaning to D’Funnybone which should be decent odds, maybe 5th choice.

This race appears to have very little speed so a small knock on any that would benefit from a hot pace…my comments on each entry below:

Gayego: probably class of the race...if i take a layoff, i want such an edge but the edge looks fairly minimal...he runs all right in returns and has a fine bullet there...bin Suroor seems a little weak at popping them first time back.

Here Comes Ben: normally want a horse coming into a stake with a nice win, but some nagging concerns here...in last, did not look good going into probably a weak field and the resulting beyer was lackluster...since others all have issues, I’d consider him, but another worry is that he surely isn't helped if they don't buzz along up front.

Caixa El.: I guess Pletcher turned this former claimer into a quality horse but wonder if that will prove to be short-lived...he looked pretty good entering the met mile but didn't get serious play...ran all right, so definitely have to respect in this easier spot.

Aikenite: can't pick him as Caixa looks better to me out of the same race and especially at 7F...maybe that nose win two back knocked him out...but a chance in this softer spot.

D'Funnybone: lost at 3:5, 1:2 and even 1:10, so certainly unreliable...what i like is that he was sharp two back and then you can argue whether the last can be thrown out because it was in the slop, although he may have run the same given it was gr II...despite his graded triumphs at this distance, i would like him better at 6F, though the lack of pace eases that concern somewhat.

Jerseytown: uncorked a winning gr I beyer of 111 when last seen...appeared flukish (34:1) but a decent career slate of 12- 5-5-1...should be prominent which helps...tagg another who doesn't specialize in readying them off shelf.

Jackson Bend: hasn't shown me much - no quality victories and last time in winners circle was '09, plus last was only a fair third in a pretty modest field.

Congressional Page: 20:1 ml; out a year, ugh...may lag early...but picks up dominguez and i won't dismiss because trombetta handy at cranking them up.

Hamazing Dest.: another in unknown condition (layed off)...slick bullet on spa's slow training track...last was his only quality effort.

Ravalo & Escrow Kid look overmatched.