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06-22-2011, 10:11 PM
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#1
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 1,991
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Belmont Morning line maker change this week
Jayson Blewitt will be making the Belmont ML this week while Erik Donovan takes a vacation so beware and see how he does. Don't know which day he starts, look at Talking Horses.
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06-22-2011, 11:21 PM
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#2
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: New York, NY
Posts: 373
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I'd be interested to know when that is...I guess it will be evident when it happens...lines look reasonable for tomorrow (thursday), so seems like Eric's to me.
Last edited by oddsmaven; 06-22-2011 at 11:24 PM.
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06-22-2011, 11:31 PM
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#3
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 1,991
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by oddsmaven
I'd be interested to know when that is...I guess it will be evident when it happens...lines look reasonable for tomorrow (thursday), so seems like Eric's to me.
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Maybe tlg will chime in ?
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06-23-2011, 02:43 AM
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#4
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PA Steward
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Del Boca Vista
Posts: 88,604
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Ja yson and Eri k?
I guess I'll just never understand... 
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06-23-2011, 10:47 AM
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#5
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Veteran
Join Date: Nov 2004
Posts: 11,435
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage
Ja yson and Eri k?
I guess I'll just never understand... |
Come on, now, TBG (The Big Guy). 
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06-23-2011, 07:27 PM
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#6
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2011
Posts: 192
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by point given
Jayson Blewitt will be making the Belmont ML this week while Erik Donovan takes a vacation so beware and see how he does. Don't know which day he starts, look at Talking Horses.
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Beware of what? Do you really take the morning line odds into consideration when handicapping? They could do away with the ML odds for all I care, they mean nothing.
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06-23-2011, 08:00 PM
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#7
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Boston+Ocala
Posts: 23,757
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i have watched new york racing forever, in the last 20 years i haven't seen to many mistakes in their morning line no matter who the linemaker is. if you want to see bad morning lines watch parx racing, penn national, turf paradise, sulfolk downs or evangeline
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06-23-2011, 10:24 PM
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#8
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2008
Posts: 946
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Mr. Donavan is at the top of his field in crafting a morning line, but I’m sure Mr. Blewitt will fill in well. He has before, even though I do remember an instance last year where, in their pre-race prattle, Mr. Serling chided him for “really blowing the line on this race.”
On this subject…It seems the tracks could invest in software programs that would produce a morning line so accurate that, within a narrow range, you could accord it a high rate (90%?) of accuracy. It couldn’t be that hard—the patterns of the wagering public are surely much more predictable than the actual racing by the horses.
My guess is the larger wagering outfits use self-developed software that accomplishes this. Would a dependably super-accurate line made available to the public have any effect on the handle?
Last edited by Cholly; 06-23-2011 at 10:26 PM.
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06-24-2011, 03:22 AM
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#9
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 288
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by lamboguy
i have watched new york racing forever, in the last 20 years i haven't seen to many mistakes in their morning line no matter who the linemaker is. if you want to see bad morning lines watch parx racing, penn national, turf paradise, sulfolk downs or evangeline
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20-1 at Suffolk the other day went off at 7/2. but in the line maker's defense the horse did finish up the track.
Agree with the last poster. I have no idea why these tracks have these guys on the payroll when they can easily use simple software combiining a few basic principles that the public wagers on (Beyers, Trainer/Jockey, Recent placings, Class moves)
__________________
www.formscore.com - Trip Adjusted Speed Figures - Sheet PP's Superior To Thorograph
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06-24-2011, 10:42 AM
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#10
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PA Steward
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Del Boca Vista
Posts: 88,604
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by skipaway100
20-1 at Suffolk the other day went off at 7/2. but in the line maker's defense the horse did finish up the track.
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Where the horse finishes is absolutely no defense to a line maker. It's all about where they finish on the tote.
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06-24-2011, 12:23 PM
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#11
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2010
Posts: 5,005
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Belmont Morning line maker change this week
Quote:
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Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage
Where the horse finishes is absolutely no defense to a line maker. It's all about where they finish on the tote.
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I don't agree. The best morning line odds-maker I ever encountered was B.J. O'Neill who made the NYRA program odds for many, many years up until around 1980. He would absolutely gloat when, for example, a horse he made 6/1 on the line would go off 17/1 on the tote and win.
During the time he "presided" as M/L oddsmaker for NYRA, he had an unwritten rule that he would NEVER list a horse at greater than 20/1. He made it a point to tell me that making a M/L is more art than science, and combines forecasting BOTH the likely betting of the public with the likely outcome of the race.
Ocala Mike
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06-24-2011, 12:35 PM
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#12
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Racing Form Detective
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Lincoln, Ne but my heart is at Santa Anita
Posts: 16,316
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage
Where the horse finishes is absolutely no defense to a line maker. It's all about where they finish on the tote.
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Nobody can guess what a fool with too much money will do.
__________________
Some day in the not too distant future, horse players will betting on computer generated races over the net. Race tracks will become casinos and shopping centers. And some crooner will be belting out "there used to be a race track here".
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06-24-2011, 12:41 PM
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#13
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 7,333
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Ocala Mike
I don't agree. The best morning line odds-maker I ever encountered was B.J. O'Neill who made the NYRA program odds for many, many years up until around 1980. He would absolutely gloat when, for example, a horse he made 6/1 on the line would go off 17/1 on the tote and win.
During the time he "presided" as M/L oddsmaker for NYRA, he had an unwritten rule that he would NEVER list a horse at greater than 20/1. He made it a point to tell me that making a M/L is more art than science, and combines forecasting BOTH the likely betting of the public with the likely outcome of the race.
Ocala Mike
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He was wrong.
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06-24-2011, 12:57 PM
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#14
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,549
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Even if an oddsmaker listed his ACTUAL opinion of what the odds should be...it still would not match the accuracy of the crowd as exemplified by the closing odds of the races themselves.
Handicappers can make a more accurate line in CERTAIN races...but they cannot match the performance of the crowd when forced to make an odds line for ALL the races out there.
When it comes to handicapping EVERY SINGLE RACE...the crowd is the ULTIMATE handicapper.
__________________
Live to play another day.
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06-24-2011, 02:14 PM
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#15
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: New York, NY
Posts: 373
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Ocala Mike
I don't agree. The best morning line odds-maker I ever encountered was B.J. O'Neill who made the NYRA program odds for many, many years up until around 1980. He would absolutely gloat when, for example, a horse he made 6/1 on the line would go off 17/1 on the tote and win.
During the time he "presided" as M/L oddsmaker for NYRA, he had an unwritten rule that he would NEVER list a horse at greater than 20/1. He made it a point to tell me that making a M/L is more art than science, and combines forecasting BOTH the likely betting of the public with the likely outcome of the race.
Ocala Mike
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Echoing TLG, this is frivolous...their job is to predict what odds the crowd will establish, not who wins...the current nyra linemaker is excellent...sounds like o'neill was bad and i recall the line in the 80's and beyond for a while was generally clueless.
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