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Old 09-21-2018, 09:25 AM   #61
Saratoga_Mike
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I gave the classical Newtonian understanding of force, but to have a good representation of the force(s) (SEE BELOW) for the horse during the race you should evaluate the Normal Force. Drag Force, Wind Force, Frictional Force, Applied Force and g-force; then sum them for their impact net force value based on the reference area, the air resistance, and the kinematic viscosity. This is a very tedious by hand calculation and at the end you will still need the predictive result for wagering which is even more difficult because both the power and energy curves are exponential. We do everything with our model which we built and have tweaked for several years.
I'd like to follow up on this matter, but let me ask you a related question. If I ran around RP and it was timed, just as horse race is timed, are you saying you could estimate my weight with the data from the "race" (no video of my "race" will be provided for your estimation; however, all other data you use for a horse race will be provided)? This is a serious question, which I hope you answer.
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Old 09-21-2018, 10:17 AM   #62
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Are you suggesting that I was deflecting and making my response unclear?

Kinematics in physics in not easy, but it becomes a lot easier with the use of differential calculus which wasn't used in my explanations.
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Old 09-21-2018, 10:21 AM   #63
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The answer is no because as an object move through space a constantly increasing force is applied which is the drag force caused by the air; hence air resistance because as the air density increases, the air molecular structure become more consolidated.

This force is acting on the horse’s body in the opposite direction of the horse’s motion and is a function of the horse’s velocity; and at low velocity by the horse the air resistance is approximately proportional to the horse’s velocity, but at higher velocity by the horse the force is more nearly proportional to the horse’s velocity squared and the power needed to overcome this dilemma is elevated by the horse’s velocity cubed.

Therefore, this is why in part that I believe Secretariat’s 1973 Kentucky Derby was his greatest performance
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Old 09-21-2018, 10:22 AM   #64
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Are you suggesting that I was deflecting and making my response unclear?

Kinematics in physics in not easy, but it becomes a lot easier with the use of differential calculus which wasn't used in my explanations.
I'm very interested in the subject matter. Could you please answer my question above? I assume if you can estimate the weight of a horse, you can estimate the weight of a human using the same data???
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Old 09-21-2018, 10:31 AM   #65
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In my earlier post, I stated that at Saratoga we did it before and after horse's race.

However, if you decide to use an Excel spreadsheet, Euler's Methodology would be a handy tool to use for the approximation of the differential equations.
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Old 09-21-2018, 10:37 AM   #66
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I apologize; that response was to poster, "elhelmete."

However, I did respond to your inquiry in post #63
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Old 09-21-2018, 10:50 AM   #67
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The answer is no because as an object move through space a constantly increasing force is applied which is the drag force caused by the air; hence air resistance because as the air density increases, the air molecular structure become more consolidated.

This force is acting on the horse’s body in the opposite direction of the horse’s motion and is a function of the horse’s velocity; and at low velocity by the horse the air resistance is approximately proportional to the horse’s velocity, but at higher velocity by the horse the force is more nearly proportional to the horse’s velocity squared and the power needed to overcome this dilemma is elevated by the horse’s velocity cubed.

Therefore, this is why in part that I believe Secretariat’s 1973 Kentucky Derby was his greatest performance
First, I'm not questioning your knowledge of physics. But I still don't understand how the factors listed above can't be measured for a human? Also, could you estimate the weight of a greyhound using your formula or a "greyhound-adjusted" formula?
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Old 09-21-2018, 11:20 AM   #68
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Are you suggesting that I was deflecting and making my response unclear?

Kinematics in physics in not easy, but it becomes a lot easier with the use of differential calculus which wasn't used in my explanations.
I'm not suggesting it. It is a fact.

You have only so far shown a partially equation that supposedly estimated one horse's weight.

It was not compared with actual data measured directly, and you have not suggested anything about the effect of time between your measurement/estimation and the event you're analyzing at hand (today's race).

You have not suggested how you use weights to handicap a race or even your theory on the role, relative or absolute, of weight in a race (i.e., is it a sign of fitness?).

These have all been asked of you. No need to divulge trade secrets either...but your "physics and calculus are true" answers are didactic and not in a useful way.
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Old 09-21-2018, 11:47 AM   #69
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Mike,

You are correct, I didn’t read your question thorough enough; my answer should have been yes because you as a human would have be doing the same as the horse, but with less mass and the effect would be lessen.
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Old 09-21-2018, 12:06 PM   #70
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Mike,

You are correct, I didn’t read your question thorough enough; my answer should have been yes because you as a human would have be doing the same as the horse, but with less mass and the effect would be lessen.
Here's where I'm confused: Bill runs a mile in 8 minutes. John runs a mile in 8 minutes. Their acceleration metrics are identical. All conditions are identical. If what you're saying is correct, they both have to weigh the exact same amount, as the only known is "a." Are you making that claim?
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Old 09-21-2018, 12:10 PM   #71
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I'm not suggesting it. It is a fact.

You have only so far shown a partially equation that supposedly estimated one horse's weight.

It was not compared with actual data measured directly, and you have not suggested anything about the effect of time between your measurement/estimation and the event you're analyzing at hand (today's race).

You have not suggested how you use weights to handicap a race or even your theory on the role, relative or absolute, of weight in a race (i.e., is it a sign of fitness?).

These have all been asked of you. No need to divulge trade secrets either...but your "physics and calculus are true" answers are didactic and not in a useful way.
That is okay, but I answered the question: "Can it be done?" and I didn't and will not layout a prescription of "How to do it" because if you have the proper science understanding coupled with solid analytic tools you should be able to do it.

Incidentally, it not my "physics and calculus are true"; it is that Newton's laws of motion which are over 400 years old are true.

On a more salient note, this is about gambling on race horses and not about a short cut to the win window at the racetrack.

And if you think I am acting in a patronizing way (didactic) that is both a misunderstanding and confusion on your part.
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Old 09-21-2018, 12:19 PM   #72
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That is okay, but I answered the question: "Can it be done?" and I didn't and will not layout a prescription of "How to do it" because if you have the proper science understanding coupled with solid analytic tools you should be able to do it.

Incidentally, it not my "physics and calculus are true"; it is that Newton's laws of motion which are over 400 years old are true.

On a more salient note, this is about gambling on race horses and not about a short cut to the win window at the racetrack.

And if you think I am acting in a patronizing way (didactic) that is both a misunderstanding and confusion on your part.
As expected.
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Old 09-21-2018, 12:32 PM   #73
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Thank you for your answers to my questions, Cratos. Much appreciated.

I love the science behind horse racing, but I am not exactly well-versed with the physics aspect of it. I understand the gravitational units and all that jazz. The only thing that stumps me about your equation earlier on in the thread is how you were able get the net force. Is there a book, paper, or an online study that you can share that was able to use instruments to determine the net force with a racehorse in-motion? Thanks again!
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Old 09-21-2018, 12:40 PM   #74
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Yanno, this is a handicapping forum, and I like to see how others approach their handicapping. I don't want or expect anyone to "give me shit for free," or that there's a magic bullet somewhere being hidden by someone.

I like learning about different approaches. Like a buffet.

Class handicappers, pace handicappers, replay junkies, physicists, breeding...all have something to add, or at least an interesting perspective. That is, of course, unless they obfuscate and deflect instead of discussing within the bounds they feel comfortable and instructive.

I have always believed that those that live or die on 'data' are held in check by the validity of the base data that is available and from which they derive their actionable information. Garbage in, garbage out, IOW. Like if I pack for a vacation in Montana based on a single data-point report of "average US temperature in September" it's not going to work out well.

So I do believe that weight of a horse, and fluctuations race-to-race and in between, would probably be a useful data set to have and to play with. I would consider it to be an indicator of a horse's health, athleticism, and other useful things.

I don't have that data set, nor am I asking someone for theirs.

A few track are starting to provide that info via a direct measure (scale). I would consider that the most accurate method, but if it's not widely and frequently done, one must wonder if estimating it is, a) possible with the limited and questionable PP data available, b) accurate compared to actual data when that is available, and c) a useful metric.

Cratos says he does all 3 successfully.

I'm not looking for shortcuts, just a real discussion. I think it could be fascinating. And I know it could be discussed among us mere mortals and without revealing any secrets.

Sad that it's not happening.
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Old 09-21-2018, 12:55 PM   #75
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Let’s analyze your assertion from the equation: a=f/m and in your example the distance is 1M with time being 8 minutes.

Therefore, I will use metric conversion to solve this problem because:
Acceleration = (2*distance/time Squared)/9.81)

= (2*1609.8/60^2)/9.81 = .091163 and given that a=f/m in theory both runners should have identical mass, but given that force is proportional to velocity this works at constant acceleration.
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