what would California do without Baffert?

[dilanesp]

I give you today's Bob Hope Stakes, with 4 entrants, 3 trained by Baffert.

If you can bet this thing, you are a heartier (or more degenerate) soul than I.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

I give you today's Bob Hope Stakes, with 4 entrants, 3 trained by Baffert.

If you can bet this thing, you are a heartier (or more degenerate) soul than I.

you rang?

All four are fine 2yos. The Forbidden Kingdom hopefully takes some 'glass-half-FULL' $$, due to his past performances, and connections.

Respect the TimeformUS Pace Projector; Winning Map looks to break on top, and has a chance to control this short field within his comfort zone, even at a Seven Furlong G3.
And, even with a kinder gentler Baffert of late, we've seen enough of his prospects that appear maybe a touch rank or green, to actually improve and blossom into a strength of style. I'm as apprehensive as they come, but I'm more afraid of Winning Map controlling a loose lead than freaking into something I haven't seen from him yet.


However from my handicapping, the Kamui is so much the best in this field. It doesn't even look close.

Kamui looks like his natural progression would have him contending with Corniche for Jimmy Barnes' 2022 KYD bid.


Depending on win odds there may be either an overlay on the or a 'Dutch on the

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

I give you today's Bob Hope Stakes, with 4 entrants, 3 trained by Baffert.

If you can bet this thing, you are a heartier (or more degenerate) soul than I.

Imagine if Baffert didn’t have such a higher percentage of the all best young prospects. We might get bigger more competitive 2yo dirt races.

[Andy Asaro]

They'd be way better off.

[the little guy]

There were nine nominated to this race. Four were trained by Baffert. He ran three of them. Only one of the five not trained by Bob decided to run. How is he the problem here?

[Tom]

Maybe his presence scarred off the others?

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by the little guy

There were nine nominated to this race. Four were trained by Baffert. He ran three of them. Only one of the five not trained by Bob decided to run. How is he the problem here?

Would this still hold true if Baffert is doping his horses?

[elhelmete]

I'm sure I might find some hints if I dove into the condition book, but has anyone else noticed that the MSW races are either 2-3 Baffert entries or conspicuously ZERO Baffert entries? It's almost as if there's a tacit agreement to limit him from shotgunning ALL MSWs.

(I seem to recall some MSWs are limited to horses with a purchase price under $xxx, but I can't be certain)

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

Would this still hold true if Baffert is doping his horses?

I can't read a trainer's mind on that issue, but to nominate and ultimately run you have to have the kind of horse that belongs in this spot running against one of Baffert's long list of monsters.

He has so many of the best bred most expensive 2yos, he has to put them on different schedules and point to different races. He recently shipped one to NY. It was a very logical spot and he won a 150K race instead of running for 100K here, but if someone else trained that horse, this might have been a logical spot also.

If some of those top prospects were in different barns, maybe instead of 9 being nominated, 12-13 would have been nominated and you'd get a 6-7 horse field. It can't possibly be a plus for field size when 1 guy dominates a category. If he's got 10 horses that could theoretically be nominated and run in this spot, you can be sure they aren't all going to be nominated, let alone run, and some will leave town to avoid running against each other.

[Spalding No!]

The last time Bob Baffert had more than 2 starters in this race (4 in 2012) the longest price of the bunch won.

Where is the Racing Secretary and/or Stakes Coordinator in all this? With a little imagination, this could have been a solid race last week on the BC undercard:

1) the BC used to run a "BC Juvenile Sprint" on the main track.
2) there might have been some overflow from the Juvenile, Juvenile Turf, and Juvenile Turf Sprint that could have opted for this race as a "2nd preference"
3) Steve Asmussen had Hopeful winner Gunite out in CA with his BC contingent; the horse ultimately did not start, but had this race been on the undercard, would they have made a point of targeting the race?
4) With perhaps a purse boost (never mind the Ship-In-and-Win bonus), could they have enticed Todd Pletcher, Chad Brown, and/or Brad Cox to ship-in one of there stakes-types or recent maiden winners?
5) Had they pushed those CA-bred 2yo stakes to the end of the meet where they would only conflict with turf stakes, perhaps they could have lured a couple CA-breds for the race, too; in fact, the winner of the colt division, Finneus, dropped out of open company and had placed in the local DM Futurity at the previous meet
6) Would Baffert (or his owners) have bothered to ship out to NY (where he is practically persona non grata) with Rockefeller had this race been part of the BC circus?
7) Beyond that, the Bob Hope serves no real purpose as far as DM goes, when at Hollywood, it was the lead-in to the Hollywood Futurity, which is now run at Los Alamitos, a track whose race dates DM (and SA) have been looking to cannibalize for years.

[lamboguy]

i am not counting syndications, but there are fewer owners in the Thoroughbred game. there are fewer trainers in the game, the breeding industry has all figured out that breeding less is better(for the breeder), and taking this one step further there are fewer customers.

if the racing industry doesn't want to see trainers with multiple horses in their races, they would need to restructure the game.

just recently i was informed that NYRA has dropped the winner's share of the purse from 60% down to 55%. they left the second-place horse alone and added the purse money to those that finish 3rd or worse. i am told that the executives at NYRA did this because they thought it would help entice more trainers to send horses to race at their tracks. on the surface it sounds like they are rewarding mediocrity, but i can understand that they felt they needed to do something to stimulate their races. i am not against this, but question how much of an impact this will have to their desired result.

[Robert Fischer]

unfortunately the myracehorse group isn't heavily underlaying their ...

it's also clear that the Messier is the steam horse.

big ownership group;

Golconda Stable, Madaket Stables LLC, SF Racing LLC, Siena Farm LLC, Starlight Racing, Waves Edge Capital LLC, Donovan, Catherine, Masterson, Robert E. and Schoenfarber, Jay A.

yea, my will probably be more than 4/1, but bucking that kind of steam feels like a real 'tradeoff'.

horseracing almost never gives you margin of safety for tradeoffs, and NEVER in four horse fields where the owner of the steam horse has a hell of a hand...



TLDR , pass

[Spalding No!]

A :43 1/5 half mile from 2yos going 7 furlongs?

I wonder if the timing issues continue...

[dilanesp]

https://mobile.twitter.com/raypaulic...60536977059845

[the little guy]

Originally Posted by Tom

Maybe his presence scarred off the others?

I don't know if anyone is scared, Tom, but most of us are scarred to at least some extent from playing this game for a lifetime.

Not that that's necessarily a bad thing:-)