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10-05-2021, 09:04 AM
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#16
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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THREE LINE GRAPHS.. ONE OBSERVATION IS THAT IN ALL THREE GRAPHS THE END OF LINE APPROACHES 1, BREAK EVEN
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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10-05-2021, 11:23 PM
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#17
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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found a few errors and made corrections
now have 112 races, the $1 normalized return, which I previously mentioned may well be the best indicator of long term results, now returns $0.94 on the dollar. I'll post some charts after 200 races.
removing 7 outliers, the $1 normalized returns becomes $0.96
in addition when the bet size is >=100 the $1 normalized return is $1.01 in 71 races.
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
Last edited by formula_2002; 10-05-2021 at 11:36 PM.
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10-06-2021, 09:44 AM
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#18
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 11
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Thanks for the work and explanation. I found this very interesting.
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10-06-2021, 10:37 AM
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#19
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nuckman
Thanks for the work and explanation. I found this very interesting.
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Yesteday I used the statscalculator to find the "bet size outliers", today I used it to find "return" outliers. eliminating both sets of outliers brought the $1 normalized return down to something much less than $1.01, say about $0.88 to $0.92, depending on what races are included.
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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10-07-2021, 04:17 PM
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#20
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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A BIT MORE THAN DUTCHING
PART OF THE STUDY.
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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10-12-2021, 10:15 PM
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#21
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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Code:
Mountaineer Park* Race 8 0 0.00
WIN PLAYS $WIN BET SIZES SHOWN Mountaineer Park* Race 8 $WIN BET SIZES SHOWN # HORSES 8
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 TOTAL BET
$0 $2 $5 $0 $0 $0 $0 $3 $0 $1 $7 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $17.66
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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10-12-2021, 10:42 PM
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#22
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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Quote:
Originally Posted by formula_2002
Code:
Mountaineer Park* Race 8 0 0.00
WIN PLAYS $WIN BET SIZES SHOWN Mountaineer Park* Race 8 $WIN BET SIZES SHOWN # HORSES 8
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 TOTAL BET
$0 $2 $5 $0 $0 $0 $0 $3 $0 $1 $7 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $17.66
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11/3 exacta $1 win paid $4.60 at the track
my total bet was $17.66 the return $33.35 (bet sizt to two decimial places was $7.29)
these plays win appox 66% of the time
the minumum average $1 must be 1/.66 = $1.52 to break even
this play returned $33.53/ $17.66 = $1.898
in a 93 race sample that average return was $1.513.
there are 17 races where the play should not be made, then the average return for the remaing races increases to $1.59 at the same win percentage of 66%.
note: with this newly designed play there are but a few races where not only the favorite is eliminated, but 1 additional horse is also eliminated
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
Last edited by formula_2002; 10-12-2021 at 10:47 PM.
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10-13-2021, 02:22 PM
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#23
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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Quote:
Originally Posted by formula_2002
Code:
Parx Racing* Race 4 0 0.00
WIN PLAYS $WIN BET SIZES SHOWN Parx Racing* Race 4 $WIN BET SIZES SHOWN # HORSES 10
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 TOTAL BET
$12 $0 $5 $19 $0 $1 $9 $22 $123 $13 $3 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $208.01
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rev
9 wins total bet $208, returned $217
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
Last edited by formula_2002; 10-13-2021 at 02:32 PM.
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10-13-2021, 02:49 PM
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#24
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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Parx Racing* Race 5
not a betting race
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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10-13-2021, 02:52 PM
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#25
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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Quote:
Originally Posted by formula_2002
Parx Racing* Race 5
not a betting race
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fav #5 ran at 1/5 and won
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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10-13-2021, 07:11 PM
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#26
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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Code:
Charles Town* Race 1 0 0.00
WIN PLAYS $WIN BET SIZES SHOWN Charles Town* Race 1 $WIN BET SIZES SHOWN # HORSES 5
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 TOTAL BET
$0 $85 $0 $64 $5 $87 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $240.53
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
Last edited by formula_2002; 10-13-2021 at 07:15 PM.
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10-13-2021, 07:22 PM
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#27
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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Quote:
Originally Posted by formula_2002
Code:
Charles Town* Race 1 0 0.00
WIN PLAYS $WIN BET SIZES SHOWN Charles Town* Race 1 $WIN BET SIZES SHOWN # HORSES 5
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 TOTAL BET
$0 $85 $0 $64 $5 $87 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $240.53
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#2 wins
$240 bet
$347 returned
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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10-14-2021, 01:07 PM
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#28
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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Yestreday, i only posted those races where the total race bet size was >=$200.
all three plays won.
why only those races? Glad you asked.
in a small 119 Race sample, 63% of the picks won, 54% of those at a profit.
the profit, return/bet size was $1.07.
sorting those 119 races on race bet size, it was determined that 32 races, having a race bet size >=$200, returned 72% winners, 83% of those at a profit and return/bet size = $1.25 .
would it not be grand it that continued!!
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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10-14-2021, 01:11 PM
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#29
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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Code:
Belmont Park* Race 2 0 0.00
WIN PLAYS $WIN BET SIZES SHOWN Belmont Park* Race 2 $WIN BET SIZES SHOWN # HORSES 6
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 TOTAL BET
$108 $110 $0 $1 $0 $8 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $226.42
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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10-14-2021, 02:18 PM
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#30
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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Code:
Belmont Park* Race 4 0 0.00
WIN PLAYS $WIN BET SIZES SHOWN Belmont Park* Race 4 $WIN BET SIZES SHOWN # HORSES 7
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 TOTAL BET
$0 $105 $0 $94 $42 $0 $5 $2 $44 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $292.54
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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