Pegasus World Cup Invitational

[IRISHLADSTABLE]

https://www.horseracingnation.com/ne...d_analysis_123

[rastajenk]

From the linkage: "In a field where there is only one Grade 1 winner...."

Pretty far fall from the race's once-lofty goals.

[BarchCapper]

Originally Posted by rastajenk

From the linkage: "In a field where there is only one Grade 1 winner...."

Pretty far fall from the race's once-lofty goals.

Trying to remember if it was Quinn or Mark Cramer who emphasized "Grade 1 races are won by Grade 1 horses" i.e. don't expect surprise winners when there are multiple Grade 1 winners in the race.

We certainly don't get much chance to test that maxim these days.

[groupie doll]

Nimitz Class seems like a viable longshot, if one weren't so inclined to take a shorter price here.

[Track Phantom]

#6 SENOR BUSCADOR (20-1)

Cigar Mile Day at AQU. Running style and odds for each winner.

1st - SPEED (wire to wire; inside) 3/5
2nd - SPEED (wire to wire; inside) 14/1
3rd - SPEED (wire to wire; inside) 2/1
4th - PRESSED (sat 2nd; 4-wide) 3/1
5th - PRESSED (sat 3rd; 4-wide) 5/1
6th - PRESSED (sat 2nd; inside) 7/1
7th - SPEED (wire to wire; inside) 1/1
8th - SPEED (wire to wire; inside) 4/1
9th - SPEED (wire to wire; inside) 8/5
10th - SPEED (wire to wire; inside) 9/1

Senor Buscador was one of the few closers who got into the exacta that day. One of the others, Guntown (from the 3rd race) won back at 8/1 on a fairer track.

Could be that the late run by Senor Buscador, while 8-wide, was heavily against the bias on that day, and deserves a look at long odds today.

[the little guy]

Originally Posted by Track Phantom

#6 SENOR BUSCADOR (20-1)

Cigar Mile Day at AQU. Running style and odds for each winner.

1st - SPEED (wire to wire; inside) 3/5
2nd - SPEED (wire to wire; inside) 14/1
3rd - SPEED (wire to wire; inside) 2/1
4th - PRESSED (sat 2nd; 4-wide) 3/1
5th - PRESSED (sat 3rd; 4-wide) 5/1
6th - PRESSED (sat 2nd; inside) 7/1
7th - SPEED (wire to wire; inside) 1/1
8th - SPEED (wire to wire; inside) 4/1
9th - SPEED (wire to wire; inside) 8/5
10th - SPEED (wire to wire; inside) 9/1

Senor Buscador was one of the few closers who got into the exacta that day. One of the others, Guntown (from the 3rd race) won back at 8/1 on a fairer track.

Could be that the late run by Senor Buscador, while 8-wide, was heavily against the bias on that day, and deserves a look at long odds today.

Long odds? It's a terrible morning line.

[Track Phantom]

Originally Posted by the little guy

Long odds? It's a terrible morning line.

The time I took to outline that and your only comment is about someone else's bad morning line? Whew...

[the little guy]

Originally Posted by Track Phantom

The time I took to outline that and your only comment is about someone else's bad morning line? Whew...

The lines are off all day. Didia at 6:1 in the 10th? Signator 15:1 in the 11th? Making morning lines is an incredibly difficult job to do well, I couldn't do it, but you can't blow the easy ones. Senor Buscador is a relatively easy one.

[Track Phantom]

Originally Posted by the little guy

The lines are off all day. Didia at 6:1 in the 10th? Signator 15:1 in the 11th? Making morning lines is an incredibly difficult job to do well, I couldn't do it, but you can't blow the easy ones. Senor Buscador is a relatively easy one.

I would not argue that. My point is more about a live runner in the big race that comes alive when layered over what appears to have been a significant track bias last time he ran. Whether he's 6-1, 15-1 or 20-1 I still think he's worth a play in that race.

What do you think he'll go off at? I'm guessing about 6-1.

[Robert Fischer]

There are some real doozies... the morning line is fucked

[the little guy]

Originally Posted by Track Phantom

I would not argue that. My point is more about a live runner in the big race that comes alive when layered over what appears to have been a significant track bias last time he ran. Whether he's 6-1, 15-1 or 20-1 I still think he's worth a play in that race.

What do you think he'll go off at? I'm guessing about 6-1.

6:1 to 8:1 max feels close. He's interesting because of what you said but his running style is a bit of a concern on that track. However, I would agree you can't look at him as a 20:1 shot. I wouldn't bet him at 6:1 but don't think it's a terrible price. Feels fairish whatever that means:-)

[PhantomOnTour]

In the Pegasus Turf I’m going to play Kingmax to find his way into the exotics at what should be double digit odds.
Must use the undefeated and very impressive #3 and will likely fade Warm Heart vs the boys after a lot of travel the last few months in the final start of her career.

[Track Phantom]

Originally Posted by the little guy

6:1 to 8:1 max feels close. He's interesting because of what you said but his running style is a bit of a concern on that track. However, I would agree you can't look at him as a 20:1 shot. I wouldn't bet him at 6:1 but don't think it's a terrible price. Feels fairish whatever that means:-)

Agree. Late runners like this are often fools gold. They often do their running after the race is already decided. Good luck today!

[Robert Fischer]

looking at the pick 5, from races 9-13


then I look at race 8 , the mile and a half McKnight?


I need a coffee or something

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Last edited by Robert Fischer; 01-27-2024 at 11:10 AM. Reason: no reason

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by Track Phantom

#6 SENOR BUSCADOR (20-1)

Cigar Mile Day at AQU. Running style and odds for each winner.

1st - SPEED (wire to wire; inside) 3/5
2nd - SPEED (wire to wire; inside) 14/1
3rd - SPEED (wire to wire; inside) 2/1
4th - PRESSED (sat 2nd; 4-wide) 3/1
5th - PRESSED (sat 3rd; 4-wide) 5/1
6th - PRESSED (sat 2nd; inside) 7/1
7th - SPEED (wire to wire; inside) 1/1
8th - SPEED (wire to wire; inside) 4/1
9th - SPEED (wire to wire; inside) 8/5
10th - SPEED (wire to wire; inside) 9/1

Senor Buscador was one of the few closers who got into the exacta that day. One of the others, Guntown (from the 3rd race) won back at 8/1 on a fairer track.

Could be that the late run by Senor Buscador, while 8-wide, was heavily against the bias on that day, and deserves a look at long odds today.

In the Pegasus, yea the is a horse that's within the flow of the race.

I think up front National Treasure will run a big one. He improved in the BC dirt mile.
Depending on how conservative the other pace in here is I see National Treasure either winning or getting in the top four.

The , , and the Senor Buscador all should have a good chance to hit the board.

I'll throw something together w/ all four of these horses, but probably look at using 7=Key1 and 2,3,6=Key2.
Looking at Dynamic One in some extra tix penciled underneath horses.

I liked Dynamic One's recent work on January 20th.

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