EXCUSED BAD RACE

[SPEEDHORSE]

I would like to know from members on what you think are legitimate excuses for a horse's bad race which you can dismiss when analyzing it's past performances.

William Quirin says that a bad race before a layoff or the first race after layoff can be excused. Any other excuses that you can add?

[pondman]

A horse is improving, so he's enter over his head...and gets walloped.

[chadk66]

A filly or mare going through an estrous cycle at race time. happens alot.

[Phantombridgejumpe]

Okay a really odd race. Strange hot pace or strange no pace race. That or an odd bias or surface (including slop)

[JustRalph]

Originally Posted by chadk66

A filly or mare going through an estrous cycle at race time. happens alot.

I'm guessing you don't get that out of the DRF?

How do you know?

[Overlay]

You mentioned Quirin including the last race before a layoff (which Quriin defined (at that time) as thirty days or more), or the first race after a layoff, as forgivable. Other circumstances that he mentioned (on page 106 of Winning at the Races) were:

Any race in which a horse has a valid excuse for a poor effort. "Blocked", "bumped", "checked", "forced wide", and "poor start" are all valid excuses. In a route, a far outside post position may be considered a valid excuse. For a come-from-behind horse, a sloppy track may excuse a poor performance. (Physical problems, such as "bore out", "lugged in", or "bled" are not valid excuses.)

For a filly or mare, any race against males.

For a three-year-old claimer, any race against older claiming horses.

For a horse whose last "good race" came on dirt, and whose record indicates no "good races" on grass, any race on grass.

For a horse whose last "good race" came on grass, and whose record indicates no "good races" on dirt, any race on dirt.

The above excuses, and all distance considerations, are suspended when a horse takes a "considerable" drop in class (a drop of at least two class levels to a level at least two levels below that of the horse's most recent "good race").

[PhantomOnTour]

I will excuse a bad race before a layoff or a bad race after a layoff, but never both.
When I see a horse run a bad one, get freshened or stay away a long time, then come back and run another lousy race...time to look elsewhere.

[Clocker]

Originally Posted by SPEEDHORSE

I would like to know from members on what you think are legitimate excuses for a horse's bad race which you can dismiss when analyzing it's past performances.

Wrong distance (sprint vs. route).

Wrong surface (dirt, turf, synthetic)

Off track conditions horse has never shown it can handle

Last race was return from layoff

Trouble line -- bad trip

Horse was moved up over its head

Horse showed unusual early speed and tired (coming into form)

Etc.

[thaskalos]

If by reading the pps I find that the horse shows the capability of running big off of an inexcusably bad race, then I will forgive a bad last race, even if I can find no noticeable excuse for it...especially if the horse shows a sharp effort in his second-last start. A thorough examination of the tendencies of horse and trainer may even cause me to forgive TWO bad recent races back-to-back.

Some horses -- or trainers -- prefer to run big every OTHER race...so I feel it necessary to be more forgiving of a bad last race, when the occasion demands.

[chadk66]

there are numerous reasons a horse can throw in a clunker. they're not machines. they are just like humans in like we don't always feel up to snuff some days. horses can be fighting a bug and the barn help doesn't know it. Most of these big operations have so many horses they can't do the little things such as check the horses temp on a daily basis. My grooms did this on a daily basis and we kept a log of it. So if a horse spikes a deg. or two we caught it. So just physical ailments in the early stages not caught cause horses to run poorly more times than you can possibly imagine.

[chadk66]

Originally Posted by JustRalph

I'm guessing you don't get that out of the DRF?

How do you know?

I trained horses for a fair number of years.

[turninforhome10]

Showing early speed in a 2-turn race from an outside post and fading while dealing with a contentious pace. Get an inside draw next out while training well and properly spotted and bingo.

[DJofSD]

Originally Posted by SPEEDHORSE

I would like to know from members on what you think are legitimate excuses for a horse's bad race which you can dismiss when analyzing it's past performances.

William Quirin says that a bad race before a layoff or the first race after layoff can be excused. Any other excuses that you can add?

What exactly do you mean by a bad race? Finishing position out of the money?

What if the horse ran 5th but was on or near the lead for a part of the race?

As others have alluded to already, you need to consider form cycle, the conditions of the race, trainer intent and some times, racing luck.

In part, where I am coming from is looking at the race within the race. Astute observers can pick up indications which never show in the PPs.

[maddog42]

I noticed that not many use distance as an excuse. I look at that first. I have become much more forgiving of a bad last race, including juju,time of day, and if it was thursday.

[TheEdge07]

Any switch

Surface
Track
Jockey
Equipment
Connections.

A hidden.bounce