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10-20-2023, 04:08 PM
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#46
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,887
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Yes, I like to see champions show their stuff.
All the other BC races, what, 18-19 of them usually have good betting opps.
Champions run so seldom anymore.
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Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
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10-20-2023, 10:58 PM
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#47
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2009
Posts: 3,431
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Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper
Arcangelo is one of several lightly raced 3yos and one 4yo in the race that could move forward, but in his case the distance almost certainly won't be an issue even if the race is run very competitively.
I think the key to this race is figuring out who is going to fire their "A" race and who could potentially reach a significant new top at 10F on that day.
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If a 3 year old looks to move forward you’re most likely candidate is Geaux Rocket Ride. His last race fits the mold. Gallop a mile and make a run through the stretch. The next question is do they make Arcangelo actually run?
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10-20-2023, 11:42 PM
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#48
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,559
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sheffwed
three thoughts
1) if this does go on to be the weakest Classic group of US horses ever, which seems possible, it will be interesting to see what happens with the subsequent Pegasus, Saudi Cup and Dubai World Cup (those three races might want to organize themselves and call those three races the Winter Triple Crown for older horses, global horse racing promotion needs work)
2) speaking of the Dubai World Cup, and last year's winner, you might want to check this warmup race out from a few weeks ago
https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=H-85mazLBhM
I don't give tips, but that looks a heck of a lot like a winning move at the dirt track bullring that is Santa Anita
3) does anyone know if there will be advanced wagering on the Breeders Cup this year?
surprised that isn't a thing already, if for no other reason than to raise more interest in what should be two great days of racing
promotion of horse racing in general in the US also could do with a bit more effort and thought (and no, I don't mean you Randall Lane) |
This is a lot of good stuff packed into one post...
I am NOT an expert (if you a facing a racing problem talk to your racing expert, be careful of racing advice from a message board), but I'll guess along for fun;
- You and I, we're the same. "Winter Triple Crown" has a ring to it like Putin from Robert Kraft. But The Pegasus is an odd inclusion and there's always a danger of offending the tastes of sensible people with silly, greedy publicity stunts.
- Last year's Dubai World Cup is trending, and the horse in the video (low quality or not) looks powerful and possible slightly brilliant, but listening to the video we don't know for sure that the Breeder's Cup is rent free in the goals of this runner.
- Someone knows. These insiders know and control basically every aspect of the game we love. Elite vs workng class. They have maximum capacity population that they want. I'm hesitant to say more.
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
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10-21-2023, 10:41 AM
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#50
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,613
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PalaceOfFortLarned
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Zandon might get totally overlooked, but he’s not impossible.
White Abarrio’s last was huge, but it was quite a bit better than his previous form. It’s possible Dutrow has him at a sustainably higher level, but it’s also possible (maybe more likely) he’s going to regress a bit, especially at 10F.
Zandon didn’t beat much last out, but among the older horses he’d certainly be in the mix if WA doesn’t fire another huge shot.
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
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10-21-2023, 01:59 PM
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#51
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,559
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It's fun to see. Rooting for him.
Yet, I can't see Dettori magically moving up horses in a race like the Classic with so much dynamic talent.
He can give a great efficient, well-timed ride to maximize his horse chance at a placing...
Not everyone will agree, but IMO Borel was one of the few that could take a non-win-contender and win. Those still required things like a hot pace, maybe an off track and lack of rail traffic for his gimmick rail-skimming ride.
Otherwise, a great ride basically gives a horse a chance to beat horses of very similar given result.
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Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
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10-21-2023, 02:32 PM
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#52
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2021
Posts: 2,106
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Robert Fischer
It's fun to see. Rooting for him.
Yet, I can't see Dettori magically moving up horses in a race like the Classic with so much dynamic talent.
He can give a great efficient, well-timed ride to maximize his horse chance at a placing...
Not everyone will agree, but IMO Borel was one of the few that could take a non-win-contender and win. Those still required things like a hot pace, maybe an off track and lack of rail traffic for his gimmick rail-skimming ride.
Otherwise, a great ride basically gives a horse a chance to beat horses of very similar given result.
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Not sure if you can be remotely serious.
Calvin Borel made two rail rides to Kentucky Derby fame with Street Sense and mainly 50/1 bomber Mine That Bird more than anything else in his career.
Don't get me wrong, he won a crap ton of races in the middle of the country circuits of Oaklawn, Louisiana, and Kentucky. He didn't win 5,000 races because he was lucky, he was pretty damn good.
Would he move up a horse in a Breeder's Cup? Come on. Be honest, his BC Juvy win with Street Sense was easy.
One could make a serious argument he blew a Triple Crown chance for Street Sense. Went too early in the Preakness and then won the Haskell and Travers after the dream mud trip in the Kentucky Derby.
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10-22-2023, 08:53 AM
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#53
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2021
Posts: 2,106
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Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper
Zandon might get totally overlooked, but he’s not impossible.
White Abarrio’s last was huge, but it was quite a bit better than his previous form. It’s possible Dutrow has him at a sustainably higher level, but it’s also possible (maybe more likely) he’s going to regress a bit, especially at 10F.
Zandon didn’t beat much last out, but among the older horses he’d certainly be in the mix if WA doesn’t fire another huge shot.
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2 weeks out, and I'm not seeing an entry without a chance.
Favorite gonna be 7/2 to 9/2 or so, right? Longest shot being Senor Buscador or Derma Sotogake at 30/1 or so?
I'm really not seeing a complete no chancer in this field right now.
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10-22-2023, 10:21 AM
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#54
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self medicated
Join Date: Mar 2012
Location: toga
Posts: 3,088
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Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper
Zandon might get totally overlooked, but he’s not impossible.
White Abarrio’s last was huge, but it was quite a bit better than his previous form. It’s possible Dutrow has him at a sustainably higher level, but it’s also possible (maybe more likely) he’s going to regress a bit, especially at 10F.
Zandon didn’t beat much last out, but among the older horses he’d certainly be in the mix if WA doesn’t fire another huge shot.
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He’s got a shot . But I like him in the exacta . This horse runs a great “clean up” place kind of race . He has come in second I believe 6 times . At a good price he’s gotta be included in the Exacta, Triple and so on . Other than Arcangelo he’s way more consistent than the the 3 yo bunch .
Dettori picks up a nice mount IMO
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10-23-2023, 04:07 PM
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#55
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2017
Posts: 126
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I am playing White Abarrio, when Dutrow gets a runner like this he usually gets the maximum out of him. I don't know how he does it, but I am not going to get beat by him.
I wonder, if White Abarrio wins, if Dutrow will fall out of his seat laughing, as he did when Saint Liam won at Belmont. It was the strangest reaction I have seen from anyone in sports after a big win.
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10-24-2023, 05:00 PM
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#56
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2018
Posts: 431
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Brass Hat
I am playing White Abarrio, when Dutrow gets a runner like this he usually gets the maximum out of him. I don't know how he does it, but I am not going to get beat by him.
I wonder, if White Abarrio wins, if Dutrow will fall out of his seat laughing, as he did when Saint Liam won at Belmont. It was the strangest reaction I have seen from anyone in sports after a big win.
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Missed his work yesterday for some reason that Dutrow wouldn't comment on. Probably nothing since he did say they were hoping to gallop him today.
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10-25-2023, 10:25 AM
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#57
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,613
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Quote:
Originally Posted by groupie doll
Missed his work yesterday for some reason that Dutrow wouldn't comment on. Probably nothing since he did say they were hoping to gallop him today.
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I read that he was injected with something and was required by the rules to not work for a week (no details provided) after that. He was back on the track galloping yesterday and supposedly looked great.
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
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10-25-2023, 05:21 PM
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#58
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2018
Posts: 431
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DRF reports that WA missed the work due to a shoeing issue, per the connections. He's supposed to work on Friday.
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10-25-2023, 07:51 PM
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#59
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 930
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As we inch closer, it's getting more and more exciting.
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10-27-2023, 08:24 AM
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#60
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2009
Posts: 3,431
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Probable race shape puts Senor Buscador in the mix in the stretch....
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