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04-08-2018, 02:05 PM
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#121
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,870
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The FAVORITE for the Derby should always be bet against.
Way to much stupid money goes in on the top choice or second choice creating value, in a race where there as sooo many reasons why the best horse does not win.
Pick against the favorite in the Derby and you will almost always come out looking like you know what your doing!
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04-08-2018, 02:22 PM
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#122
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 161
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GMB@BP
The FAVORITE for the Derby should always be bet against.
Way to much stupid money goes in on the top choice or second choice creating value, in a race where there as sooo many reasons why the best horse does not win.
Pick against the favorite in the Derby and you will almost always come out looking like you know what your doing!
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Since the current point system was implemented 5 years ago the favorites have won all 5 Kentucky Derbys. IMO it eliminated the "sprinter only" types that would always enter and cause chaos type scenarios.
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04-08-2018, 02:24 PM
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#123
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 29
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dont forget the drug testing
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04-08-2018, 02:27 PM
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#124
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,870
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dasch
Since the current point system was implemented 5 years ago the favorites have won all 5 Kentucky Derbys. IMO it eliminated the "sprinter only" types that would always enter and cause chaos type scenarios.
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To small of a sample, and I would argue the best horse didnt win a couple of those despite not being the favorite but I do agree the points system has made it a "truer" race.
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04-08-2018, 02:41 PM
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#125
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 1,755
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Secondbest
I can't quite say what I was expecting but whatever it was I didn't see it.
He did run a sub 38 but as the derby favorite I don't know.
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I watched the race again and the stretch run twice . I take back my previous post. Smith was sitting on the turn while Castellano was whipping Bolt so Bolt was gaining . Once Smith went to whip Justify took off I think it was 3 times and he just pulled away.
I didn't see his weight . Curious if it was the same as his prior race.
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04-08-2018, 02:48 PM
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#126
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: Seattle
Posts: 3,943
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That fade at the top of the stretch, and the fact, that even though hard pressed from the 5/16ths onward, Bolt D'oro was able to threaten all the way to the 1/16th pole, tells me that if Justify runs into a horse that can finish the move that Bolt D'oro made comes along, Justify will get outrun to the wire. Justify should have put 3 on Bolt D'oro at the 3/16th. MSmith scrubbed him pretty diligently as they straightened and he couldn't put a used Bolt D'oro away for another 250 yards. BDo is a nice horse, but he's 12/1 first Saturday in May.
Justify is a beautiful horse, but either a fuller pre-derby campaign would have made him a monster, or would have exposed him completely. 3 races and off to the KDerby for a horse that faded 4 paths at the top of the stretch in a 7 horse SA Derby after an uncontested :24, :24, :24.3 . NO THANKS.
An aside. Anybody notice the odds change entering the CH turn? 3/5 and 6/5 went to 4/5 and even. Late money flowed to BDo. It may have been big rebate players dutching and making their nickels, or it could have been an educated opinion. It wasn't an out of the question odds move though considering how the race went.
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04-08-2018, 02:51 PM
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#127
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,870
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ultracapper
An aside. Anybody notice the odds change entering the CH turn? 3/5 and 6/5 went to 4/5 and even. Late money flowed to BDo. It may have been big rebate players dutching and making their nickels, or it could have been an educated opinion. It wasn't an out of the question odds move though considering how the race went.
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I dont think you can use late money at GP and SA to mean anything, its all the CRW coming in equalizing the board.
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04-08-2018, 03:03 PM
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#128
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: Seattle
Posts: 3,943
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Definitely some of that going on.
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04-10-2018, 12:46 PM
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#129
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: Seattle
Posts: 3,943
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dasch
It appears that you have to be a number maker of some kind to appreciate the effort yesterday. His last 2 races he was beating the equivalent of claimers versus running against a proven grade 1 horse yesterday. People fawned all over him when beating NOTHING and the same people weren't impressed yesterday, LOL
I can say that the SA Derby number was SO EASY to make that I didn't even need for the Oaks to run to verify anything. I had the race equivalent to 133-135 on the Timeform scale and they gave it a 132.
One interesting thing is the Beyer. Doug Salvatore posted on twitter this morning that in the Oaks all 9 horses were given lower beyers than their previous. He thought it should have been 5 points higher and the 107 number given to Justify is 5 points less than the "usual" Timefore to Beyer equivalent. Did they "adjust" the Oaks down so they wouldn't have to give Justify the 112?
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I'm one of those. You gotta take it as it comes.
I think I like him stalking better than setting. KD should give him that opportunity also.
Plenty of time to think this through. Hate to see him at too short a price though as there are questions, as there always are with top-end, lightly raced 3 yos. He's gone 7, 8, and 9. Straight to the premier 10 furlong race in the land.
Thank heavens we still have a month to go. He came back to the morning works quickly after the allowance, just as he did after the maiden. The work regimen from here out will be interesting. Couldn't be in better hands. Let's see what the white haired wizard does from here.
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04-10-2018, 01:47 PM
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#130
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 161
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ultracapper
I'm one of those. You gotta take it as it comes.
I think I like him stalking better than setting. KD should give him that opportunity also.
Plenty of time to think this through. Hate to see him at too short a price though as there are questions, as there always are with top-end, lightly raced 3 yos. He's gone 7, 8, and 9. Straight to the premier 10 furlong race in the land.
Thank heavens we still have a month to go. He came back to the morning works quickly after the allowance, just as he did after the maiden. The work regimen from here out will be interesting. Couldn't be in better hands. Let's see what the white haired wizard does from here.
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That was why I said I think you have to be a number maker to TRULY appreciate the effort.
Here is my work chart for that race:
Keep in mind I use pace, trip and weight and these are all horses I am very familiar with:
2nd placer@21
3rd@Between21to22
4th@Between21to22
5th@21
6th & 7th were beaten 28 and 30 lengths
The 21 variant gives Justify the highest number I have EVER given a 3yo in a race before the KD. This has me quite impressed and zero doubt about the number. My concerns are that will he be ok after an effort like this? And he has never raced on any other track than SA so has never shipped either.
If the SA Derby Justify shows up at Churchill a big good luck to the rest. If anybody can get him there at his best it's definitely Baffert. Of course there is always the post position draw and trip with 20 horses to overcome as well.
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04-12-2018, 01:26 PM
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#131
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Join Date: Mar 2015
Location: Louisville, KY
Posts: 328
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21 was the variant for SA that day??
Seems high to me
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04-12-2018, 01:44 PM
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#132
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: Bismarck, ND
Posts: 1,631
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Parson
21 was the variant for SA that day??
Seems high to me
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It does. I believe there was only one other route on the card that day and it was restricted to fillies. Even the Oaks fillies hit the 3/4 pole a half second faster. I'm skeptical of some of the very high speed figures created for the Santa Anita Derby. Brisnet gave it the highest in points series history in spite of the race being the 19th slowest in race history. It was 12 points higher than American Pharoah's Ark which was the 11th fastest in race history. Equibase rated the race a 108 which is very par for that prep over the last decade. Par for the Santa Anita is still plenty good enough to contend for roses.
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04-12-2018, 02:34 PM
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#133
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 161
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Parson
21 was the variant for SA that day??
Seems high to me
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The 21 variant is only relative to my numbers. My 21 wont match Timeform's or Beyer's 21. I don't use anybody elses par charts or times. My only reason for showing the variant was because the race lined up as perfectly at it gets including pace, trip and weight which some others leave out and require additional adjustment.
Last edited by dasch; 04-12-2018 at 02:46 PM.
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04-13-2018, 12:44 AM
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#134
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,870
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The problem is people are not looking at the big picture.
Lets say you believe the varient should have not been close to what the chief figure makers made, lets just say it was 20, and you believe it was much closer to say 10. That gives Justify a figure more in line with a good race but close to par for the race, nothing special.
When you do that you have EVERY other winner that day going backwards off their better figures.
You would have midnight bisou with an 80ish figure. Folks, been watching the Oaks for a long long time, thats a good filly right there, she is not a 80 figure horse.
So every dirt winner more or less would go backwards with winning efforts (at leas the ones with established form).
Not how it works. Justify ran really well, the numbers support it. He may flop in the Derby for a variety of reason, but he is a fast horse.
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04-13-2018, 08:19 AM
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#135
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: Bismarck, ND
Posts: 1,631
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GMB@BP
The problem is people are not looking at the big picture.
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If I'm not mistaken, there was only one other dirt route that day and it was the Oaks. Have fun putting together figures using comps from a stakes restricted to fillies and a couple sprints. Getting a really big picture, Unique Bella ran a 6F fraction in 1:10.4 at the track this year and won the race. That was two seconds faster than Justify's plodding to the pole. Maybe he's just playing like American Pharoah did in the rebel but I doubt it against a horse like Bolt.
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