The Derby Beyer is....

[cj]

Originally Posted by mostpost

Your video disproves your thesis. Either that or one of us doesn't understand what drafting is. My understanding is that drafting is when one horse is directly behind another so that the front horse protects the second horse from the wind. Kindly point out to me where that occurs on your video.

At the start of the race CC is between horses in third or fourth. No horse is directly in front of him. Nearing the first turn he crosses over to get to the outside, so he very briefly Chitu at that time. From then on he is clearly on the outside of Uncle Sigh and Chitu. The fact that he is running third (while in the clear) has nothing to do with the kind of drafting we are talking about here.

Didn't look like he did a lot of drafting to me either. Even if he did, it wouldn't change the fact that the wind was slowing horses down on the frontstretch. Drafting or not, it would have an effect on the final time.

[cj]

Originally Posted by dannyhill

Run-up was the same, 34 feet. 1 1/4 race the opening quarter is a straight-away so no turn. Often the first quarter is quicker in a race where the opening quarter has no turn.

On average at Churchill, horses of equal ability run the first half mile about two lengths faster at 1 1/16 miles than they do at 1 1/4 miles. I'll have to do a little more work to get the difference in the first quarter mile.

[dannyhill]

Originally Posted by cj

On average at Churchill, horses of equal ability run the first half mile about two lengths faster at 1 1/16 miles than they do at 1 1/4 miles. I'll have to do a little more work to get the difference in the first quarter mile.

Seriously gonna use a stat with the number of races run at 1 1/4 distance. Not disputing you're stat, of course at that distance you don't want to go fast early. Just that with no turn it is not surprising to see a quicker quarter.
If they both run 24 flat opening quarter with the same run-up which had the easier time of it. To me the race with no turn.

[cj]

Originally Posted by dannyhill

Seriously gonna use a stat with the number of races run at 1 1/4 distance. Not disputing you're stat, of course at that distance you don't want to go fast early. Just that with no turn it is not surprising to see a quicker quarter.
If they both run 24 flat opening quarter with the same run-up which had the easier time of it. To me the race with no turn.

I wasn't disagreeing with you at all, the horses obviously rate more because of the longer distance. They clearly could run faster if asked to do so on the straight.

[SPEEDHORSE]

I think Andy Beyer's once said that WIND is already incorporated in the computation of the daily track variant.

I believe it is true, because when computing track surface speed. Beyer's associates attribute a slow final to track condition when in fact WIND direction has also something to do with the final time being slow.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by SPEEDHORSE

I think Andy Beyer's once said that WIND is already incorporated in the computation of the daily track variant.

I believe it is true, because when computing track surface speed. Beyer's associates attribute a slow final to track condition when in fact WIND direction has also something to do with the final time being slow.

I must have missed that...

[cj]

Originally Posted by SPEEDHORSE

I think Andy Beyer's once said that WIND is already incorporated in the computation of the daily track variant.

I believe it is true, because when computing track surface speed. Beyer's associates attribute a slow final to track condition when in fact WIND direction has also something to do with the final time being slow.

It is, but when you are comparing races of vastly different distances, you can't use the same variant. This was no different than if you had a 20 mile an hour wind into the faces of the horses in one turn races. Using the same variant for a 5.5f race and a 7f race wouldn't make much sense. Why do people think it is ok to use the same for an 8.5 and a 10f race?

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by cj

It is, but when you are comparing races of vastly different distances, you can't use the same variant. This was no different than if you had a 20 mile an hour wind into the faces of the horses in one turn races. Using the same variant for a 5.5f race and a 7f race wouldn't make much sense. Why do people think it is ok to use the same for an 8.5 and a 10f race?

Because there are no other 10F races out there to use as a base for an exclusively 10F variant.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by SPEEDHORSE

I think Andy Beyer's once said that WIND is already incorporated in the computation of the daily track variant.

I believe it is true, because when computing track surface speed. Beyer's associates attribute a slow final to track condition when in fact WIND direction has also something to do with the final time being slow.

On some level that is probably true, but it's not true when you don't know how strong the wind/gusts were, which direction they were coming from, if they changed direction or intensity during the day, or if one distance (like 10F at CD) was impacted in a different way than lets say 7F out of a backstretch chute. Then you have a bigger problem.

[cj]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Because there are no other 10F races out there to use as a base for an exclusively 10F variant.

I agree. But in my opinion, it is better to use the 19 horses from one race instead of using data from another race run under much different conditions.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Because there are no other 10F races out there to use as a base for an exclusively 10F variant.

That's why this thread exists.

When you have to break out a race and you have issues of wind, track moisture, pace, and distance ability etc... it's very easy for well informed people to come to different conclusions about how fast/good a race really was.

[Cratos]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

What's to argue? Are the flags visible during a replay of the race? If so, verdict obtained.

You apparently don't understand "wind force" at ground level. The blowing of the flags tells you that the wind is blowing, but they don't tell and cannot tell the force; especially at ground level and that is what this debate is about.

To state that the pace of the Ky Derby was slow based on which way the flags were blowing or what an outrider said moves from the ridiculous to the sublime in the understanding of wind force on a horserace.

Incidentally, in an earlier post within this thread I did give the source of the data which I used which was from the NWS and the location was Churchill Downs between 6p-7p on May 3, 2014.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by cj

I agree. But in my opinion, it is better to use the 19 horses from one race instead of using data from another race run under much different conditions.

As racing is currently run in this country, 10F is the "bastard distance"...and any determination the handicapper might make by relying solely on the "facts" presented by such a race is liable to be suspect to a large extent. It might seem logical to give the Derby a higher figure, given the credentials of the horses in the race...but it could also prove to be wrong, going forward.

[dannyhill]

Originally Posted by cj

I wasn't disagreeing with you at all, the horses obviously rate more because of the longer distance. They clearly could run faster if asked to do so on the straight.

Was concerned for a moment.

[dasch]

Originally Posted by cj

I agree. But in my opinion, it is better to use the 19 horses from one race instead of using data from another race run under much different conditions.

100% agree