AVERAGE SPEED FIGURES

[SPEEDHORSE]

Here are some questions to horseplayers who uses AVERAGE SPEED FIGURES as a handicapping factor:

1. What is your maximum number of races to average?
2. What is your minimum number of races to average?
3. Do you average Speed Figures based on:
a. Races without due consideration to distances and racetracks where
the figures were earned.
b. Speed figures only from races at the racetrack where the race is being
held without considering the different distances shown in the PPs.
c. Speed figures only from distance of today's race or within 1/2f of today's
race without due consideration to the different racetracks the figures
were earned.

[shouldacoulda]

I did average speed figures years ago when I was primarily a speed capper. It leaves room for too many beats by shippers and layoff horses and distance changes which is why I stopped speed capping as a lone decision maker. When I did though, I used the last 3.

[Overlay]

The best results that I've seen have been for an average of those races out of the horse's last three that were run on the same surface as today's race (irrespective of track or distance), or for all of the last three, if none were run on today's surface. However (as shouldacoulda said), speed should not be used as a stand-alone factor. Also, I consider each horse in light of the probability associated with its rank in its field, rather than using the speed average as a go/no-go elimination criterion.

[classhandicapper]

I think you'll do better to weight each relevant race rather than averaging them. Last is more important than previous is more important than previous to that etc.... The study I have seen suggested there wasn't all that much to be gained by going back more than 3 races, but there might be some exceptions related to surface/distance/trip etc... where going back further would help.