Carroll: Handicapping Speed

[PhantomOnTour]

I make daily figs for Aqu-Aqui-Bel-Sar-GP-Mth as well as what I call Big Race Figs (BRF).
BRFs are graded stakes run on non turf at all major tracks in the USA...
CD-SA-Hol-Dmr-FG-Kee-Crc-Pim-Del-OP and some others i can't recall.
This requires a chart for each track or comparison to a single parallel time chart and adj made for each track.
I choose the former method; a unique chart for each track.
Why?
Because some tracks simply do not follow the orderly parallel time chart that says a horse who runs 1m in x-time will run 9f in y-time. It's much simpler for me to have a chart for each track rather than a load of adj. for each track.
It helps in track to track comparisons as shippers are in almost every race these days.
This method is clearly not perfect either, but i prefer it to a single chart or baseline.

[cj]

Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour

I make daily figs for Aqu-Aqui-Bel-Sar-GP-Mth as well as what I call Big Race Figs (BRF).
BRFs are graded stakes run on non turf at all major tracks in the USA...
CD-SA-Hol-Dmr-FG-Kee-Crc-Pim-Del-OP and some others i can't recall.
This requires a chart for each track or comparison to a single parallel time chart and adj made for each track.
I choose the former method; a unique chart for each track.
Why?
Because some tracks simply do not follow the orderly parallel time chart that says a horse who runs 1m in x-time will run 9f in y-time. It's much simpler for me to have a chart for each track rather than a load of adj. for each track.
It helps in track to track comparisons as shippers are in almost every race these days.
This method is clearly not perfect either, but i prefer it to a single chart or baseline.

This is pretty much exactly what I'm doing, but I want to start with a solid baseline. When there are deviations from track to track like you mention, I want to know why, and having that baseline helps a lot.

[PhantomOnTour]

Originally Posted by cj

This is pretty much exactly what I'm doing, but I want to start with a solid baseline. When there are deviations from track to track like you mention, I want to know why, and having that baseline helps a lot.

Is it time to construct a new universal parallel time chart, if an accurate one can even be created?
With AWS of many kinds in play today I think a universal baseline isn't doable.

[JeremyJet]

Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour

Is it time to construct a new universal parallel time chart, if an accurate one can even be created?
With AWS of many kinds in play today I think a universal baseline isn't doable.

There is no such thing as a "universal parallel time chart" ... one that can be used from track-to-track ... without adjustments ... never has been. Like you said, it's a "baseline" ... a starting point.

I don't know about Carroll, but Beyer never suggested otherwise.

[PhantomOnTour]

Originally Posted by JeremyJet

There is no such thing as a "universal parallel time chart" ... one that can be used from track-to-track ... without adjustments ... never has been. Like you said, it's a "baseline" ... a starting point.

I don't know about Carroll, but Beyer never suggested otherwise.

My error...i am not well versed on Beyer at all. I am a Quirin style pace and speed guy.
What I meant by universal chart is something that shows the standard (if you will) rate of deceleration from 8f to 8.5f to 9f to etc...horses getting 8f in 136.0 will get 9f in 149.8 or something like that.

[cj]

Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour

Is it time to construct a new universal parallel time chart, if an accurate one can even be created?
With AWS of many kinds in play today I think a universal baseline isn't doable.

I think you have to do it by surface, but the AWS are all pretty similar at least time wise.

[maddog42]

Originally Posted by JeremyJet

There is no such thing as a "universal parallel time chart" ... one that can be used from track-to-track ... without adjustments ... never has been. Like you said, it's a "baseline" ... a starting point.

I don't know about Carroll, but Beyer never suggested otherwise.

Lets say there is a mythical Worlds Greatest Handicapper. Please bear with me on this. He is handicapping AQU, BEL. WGH knows how to figure track variants like Einstein. HE can adjust every paceline to counter the effects of pace, wind ,heat and patrons passing gas. He knows where horses are in there form cycle. WGH KNOWS that on a day when the variants are equal that a 71.17 second 6f on AQUI is equal to 70.89 at belmont.WGH knows this because he can filter out all the other variables at these tracks and he has a Universal Parallel Time Chart that he constructed by being able to filter out all these other Factors that affect the outcome of a race and He still has a hard time overcoming the track takeout at SA.

[maddog42]

Originally Posted by JeremyJet

There is no such thing as a "universal parallel time chart" ... one that can be used from track-to-track ... without adjustments ... never has been. Like you said, it's a "baseline" ... a starting point.

I don't know about Carroll, but Beyer never suggested otherwise.

If you mean a Time Chart like what is in Picking Winners, then of course there is no such animal that will work on all tracks. I guess Univeral is the key word here.
I have constructed track charts that allowed me to go from one track to another fairly well. I would make an adjustment based on daily variant and let her rip. I have had more than a few people peering over my shoulder wanting to
know equivalents. That was a few years ago and keeping up with the changes was a nightmare. I did all this using notebooks, pencil and paper.

[JeremyJet]

Originally Posted by maddog42

Lets say there is a mythical Worlds Greatest Handicapper. Please bear with me on this. He is handicapping AQU, BEL. WGH knows how to figure track variants like Einstein. HE can adjust every paceline to counter the effects of pace, wind ,heat and patrons passing gas. He knows where horses are in there form cycle. WGH KNOWS that on a day when the variants are equal that a 71.17 second 6f on AQUI is equal to 70.89 at belmont.WGH knows this because he can filter out all the other variables at these tracks and he has a Universal Parallel Time Chart that he constructed by being able to filter out all these other Factors that affect the outcome of a race and He still has a hard time overcoming the track takeout at SA.

You're correct. Now think about the guy handicapping with inferior data. That guys really up shit creek.

[JeremyJet]

Originally Posted by maddog42

If you mean a Time Chart like what is in Picking Winners, then of course there is no such animal that will work on all tracks. I guess Univeral is the key word here.
I have constructed track charts that allowed me to go from one track to another fairly well. I would make an adjustment based on daily variant and let her rip. I have had more than a few people peering over my shoulder wanting to
know equivalents. That was a few years ago and keeping up with the changes was a nightmare. I did all this using notebooks, pencil and paper.

The purpose of universal charts is to cut down on the grunt work involved. Instead of starting from scratch for each track you want to make charts for, you can simply adjust the universal charts when you know what the distance-to-distance adjustments are for the particular track you're working with.

[BIG49010]

Just wondering if anybody uses an excellerated scale, being the faster races get more credit? I have thought about this in the past, but never put it to work.

I use an old set of Dave's pars, and have adjusted them over the years based on experience, to come up with my track to tracks.

[cj]

Originally Posted by JeremyJet

The purpose of universal charts is to cut down on the grunt work involved. Instead of starting from scratch for each track you want to make charts for, you can simply adjust the universal charts when you know what the distance-to-distance adjustments are for the particular track you're working with.

But Dr. Beav says this is absurd.

[SPEEDHORSE]

Bro CJ,

I am using Charles Carroll's Speed Figure methodology and I use a mythical track record as my baseline for all distances run here in the Philippines.

Since we only have two racetracks here, making a track to track adjustment is not problematic.

I calculate the elapsed time per distance per class and used the average elapsed time to add to my mythical track record. If my mythical track record for 1400 meters distance is 1:26.0. I will add to this baseline time the average elapsed time in seconds between 1400 and 1500 meters distance. If the average elapsed time is 6 seconds the baseline time for 1500 meters distance will be 1:26.0 and so on as the distances gets longer.

[highnote]

CJ -- check out Nick Mordin's book "On Time". It's about his method of making speed figures. He makes figures for British racing -- flat and jumps! Some of these tracks run downhill, some uphill, some on undulating courses, some clockwise and some counter clockwise. Champs Elysee has something like 17 different turf configurations!

His book might give you some good ideas on how to make adjustments.

His baseline time is the hypothetical grade one time at the track. Some tracks never have a grade one race, however, he can work it out based on shippers who have raced at both tracks.

[cj]

Originally Posted by swetyejohn

CJ -- check out Nick Mordin's book "On Time". It's about his method of making speed figures. He makes figures for British racing -- flat and jumps! Some of these tracks run downhill, some uphill, some on undulating courses, some clockwise and some counter clockwise. Champs Elysee has something like 17 different turf configurations!

His book might give you some good ideas on how to make adjustments.

His baseline time is the hypothetical grade one time at the track. Some tracks never have a grade one race, however, he can work it out based on shippers who have raced at both tracks.

I have his books, and I use his ideas often.