01-19-2022, 10:55 AM
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#32
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: White Plains, NY
Posts: 5,315
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mountainman
Like any other handicapping factor, track bias can best help the bottom line when setting you on a contrarian path.
In fact, assuming that a bias-hungry public will spot and be ALL OVER obvious trends, on the show, I focus more on subtler trends, or on potentially strong biases revealed early by subtle signs. Anybody can watch two 25-1 shots win gate to wire and (correctly) proclaim a bias. But it takes expertise to look back in the pack (or lower on the board) and spot a buried or overlooked performance that signals an edge (or disadvantage) for some path or running style.
By the time a bias shows up on the tote board, the real value sometimes comes from betting against it on the possibity that an apparent pattern might just be random. Or that the track has changed, which happens frequently at cold-weather meets.
This all hinges, of course, on superior handicapping and race-watching skills.
I do think that the odds board has a short memory concerning bias-aided (or hindered) performances, and that next-out value can be had. That doesn't mean bias-hindered horses have to win, just that they tend to be underbet.
I also find bias notes, which I inject via formulator, helpful in clarifying form-cycles and in identifying which past efforts I should ignore, and which to focus on.
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What I used to find as well when I played was jocks PERCEIVING there was a strong front-runner bias and all rushing for the lead -- thereby setting the race up for a stone-cold closer.
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andicap
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