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11-12-2021, 10:19 AM
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#1
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2015
Posts: 915
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Beyer fig calculations
For computing Beyer figures, is the track variant listed in the DRF PP's used as the baseline for their computations? I know figs are adjusted for pace & class to account for aberrations, but I'm having a hard time understanding the wide difference in Beyer figs for a pair of horses in Del Mar's 5th today.
Comedic & Granola Girl each come out of a pair of 5f MSW turf sprints at SA. Variant was the same each day, and their final times were nearly identical. The pace of each race was similar enough & looking at the competition each race it's hard to draw conclusions on the strength of each field. With all of that, Comedic got a figure of 70 & Granola Girl a 54.
This particular figure from Santa Anita's 1st race on Oct 10th will have a lot of influence on today's pick 5 at Del Mar as it'll probably be responsible for 2 fairly heavy favorites in race 1 & 5. It's part of the handicapping puzzle in figuring out how much to trust this figure.
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11-12-2021, 10:31 AM
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#2
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: Beaverdam Virginia
Posts: 12,591
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The DRF variants used to be based on the track record and highly inaccurate, not sure if they still are.
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11-12-2021, 11:08 AM
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#3
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,744
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Beyer Figs - 86 and DRF SR+TV - 86-17 are not related at all. Beyer variants are not listed, and he doesn't use class pars. He probably broke out one of the races for some reason.
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Last edited by Tom; 11-12-2021 at 11:09 AM.
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11-12-2021, 11:18 AM
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#4
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,825
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Races weren't run on the same day so comparing times doesn't make much sense, especially because they were run with different rail settings.
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11-12-2021, 11:35 AM
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#5
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,744
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BRIS figs for the two are 80 and 67, so they are agreeing with Andy.
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11-12-2021, 01:53 PM
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#6
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2015
Posts: 915
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From the best I can tell given the adjustment for ground loss on each horse, it looks like thorograph sheets rated these races pretty much the same, so will be interesting to see which figures prevail today.
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11-12-2021, 02:53 PM
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#7
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Boston+Ocala
Posts: 23,730
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
Races weren't run on the same day so comparing times doesn't make much sense, especially because they were run with different rail settings.
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that is a very sharp and GREAT point.
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11-12-2021, 07:54 PM
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#8
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,744
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SG4
From the best I can tell given the adjustment for ground loss on each horse, it looks like thorograph sheets rated these races pretty much the same, so will be interesting to see which figures prevail today.
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Ta da!
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