How do the big syndicates bet into tote pools?

[hpollock]

I'm more so referring to Australian or Hong Kong horse racing where the race doesn't always start on time and horses can be withdrawn from the barriers etc. Isn't it impossible to get your bets on at the right time and right price? Also what happens when all the big syndicates pile into a horse in the last seconds and it ends up well below what is considered 'value'?

[CheckMark]

https://www.smh.com.au/sport/racing/...706-zsxty.html

https://www.raceplace.nz/topic/902-tote-pools/

Saw your post on Reddit too but don't have one so here is links that could help you with your question?

[Seabiscuit@AR]

It is impossible for big syndicates to get their bets on at the right time and the right price all the time. So they are happy to get their bets on at the right time and the right price most of the time instead. On some races they will get shut out and not get their bet on in time but this does not bother them as long as the bets they do get on win them money long term

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by hpollock

I'm more so referring to Australian or Hong Kong horse racing where the race doesn't always start on time and horses can be withdrawn from the barriers etc. Isn't it impossible to get your bets on at the right time and right price? Also what happens when all the big syndicates pile into a horse in the last seconds and it ends up well below what is considered 'value'?

I can’t help you with Aussy racing, but I’ve been playing HK for the last 5 years. The number of delayed races there is certainly NOT the norm. For the most part they are very diligent and methodical when it comes to getting things done on time. If there’s a race delay for one reason or another they will either delay all the remaining races a specific amount of time or even sometimes try to make up the time delay. So the players always know where they stand when it comes to post time.

The big syndicates do very often place last minute bets, but believe it or not the majority of entries that go “brown” due to heavy betting on the HK Tote board do NOT win. So yes, they’re not getting the 'value" because they’re getting NOTHING. That’s not to say that those type of entries don’t finish in the money because they’re definitely well-intentioned animals.

My response is based my techniques for ONLY using a sophisticated tote analysis when playing. Following the Money is as far as I’m concerned the best way to play this game because it offers “Real Time” objective information about each entry and its potential as race contender.

[Nitro]

As an example of the late heavy betting take a look at Race 2 @ Happy Valley today.

The #4 entry opened at 12.0/1 and bet down to 4.8/1 at post time. It takes an awful lot of money to cause that type of drop down when there’s $36,246,632 HK$ (US$7,249,326) in just the Win pool. Check out where the #4 entry finished!

https://racing.hkjc.com/racing/infor...se=HV&RaceNo=2

(NOTE: Any entry that’s bet down 50% or more goes “brown” on the HK Tote).

[Tape Reader]

Originally Posted by Nitro

As an example of the late heavy betting take a look at Race 2 @ Happy Valley today.

The #4 entry opened at 12.0/1 and bet down to 4.8/1 at post time. It takes an awful lot of money to cause that type of drop down when there’s $36,246,632 HK$ (US$7,249,326) in just the Win pool. Check out where the #4 entry finished!

https://racing.hkjc.com/racing/infor...se=HV&RaceNo=2

(NOTE: Any entry that’s bet down 50% or more goes “brown” on the HK Tote).

Goes brown from where? ML? Last few minutes?

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by Tape Reader

Goes brown from where? ML? Last few minutes?

When viewing the Hong Kong tote information there’s much more information available than what players here in the States are used to seeing. The information is useless until you learn how to put it all into proper perspective. They offer the following related to the tote activities in the Win and Place pools:
A) Two Static M/L’s (as I call them)
A1) Initial Odds Index for each entry – usually available a couple of days before race day.
A2) Race Day Index for each entry – usually available a few hours before the race card begins.

B) Two Dynamic Tote Lines
B1) Early Live Odds – posted when the early pre-race betting begins about an hour before post time.
B2) Opening/Current Live Odds – posted as the betting cycle progresses showing the changing Odds

During a typical betting cycle for any given race when monitoring the HK Tote board:
https://bet.hkjc.com/racing/pages/od...ng=en&dv=local
There are 3 colored indicators (See that info below the odds table from above link) that are posted on the Win & Place odds on those entries that meet the following criteria:
Red = the favorite / Green = An Odds Drop of 20% / Brown = An Odds Drop of 50%
The “Odds Drop” indicators are based on changes from the Opening Live Odds (B2) when the Betting cycle begins.

As an example the following is the information for the #4 entry in the 2nd Race (mentioned in the previous post)

Bet#	   Horse Name		WGT	Trainer	         Jockey	   PP	  B2	  B1	A2	A1
4	PERFECT TO PLAY 	129	C Fownes 	B Shinn    1	  4.8	  12	8.2	5.7
 

[TexasDolly]

Hi Nitro,
How much money would be in the opening pool versus the closing pool as in your example ?

TD

[FakeNameChanged]

Originally Posted by Nitro

When viewing the Hong Kong tote information there’s much more information available than what players here in the States are used to seeing. The information is useless until you learn how to put it all into proper perspective. They offer the following related to the tote activities in the Win and Place pools:
A) Two Static M/L’s (as I call them)
A1) Initial Odds Index for each entry – usually available a couple of days before race day.
A2) Race Day Index for each entry – usually available a few hours before the race card begins.

B) Two Dynamic Tote Lines
B1) Early Live Odds – posted when the early pre-race betting begins about an hour before post time.
B2) Opening/Current Live Odds – posted as the betting cycle progresses showing the changing Odds

During a typical betting cycle for any given race when monitoring the HK Tote board:
https://bet.hkjc.com/racing/pages/od...ng=en&dv=local
There are 3 colored indicators (See that info below the odds table from above link) that are posted on the Win & Place odds on those entries that meet the following criteria:
Red = the favorite / Green = An Odds Drop of 20% / Brown = An Odds Drop of 50%
The “Odds Drop” indicators are based on changes from the Opening Live Odds (B2) when the Betting cycle begins.

As an example the following is the information for the #4 entry in the 2nd Race (mentioned in the previous post)

Bet#	   Horse Name		WGT	Trainer	         Jockey	   PP	  B2	  B1	A2	A1
4	PERFECT TO PLAY 	129	C Fownes 	B Shinn    1	  4.8	  12	8.2	5.7
 

Good morning Nitro. when a horse gets a 20% or 50% drop from the opening odds, and it also becomes the Favorite, how do the colors work? Does it flash Green or Brown before going Red? Thx.

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by TexasDolly

Hi Nitro,
How much money would be in the opening pool versus the closing pool as in your example ?

TD

Hi there TD
Based on the many races that I’ve monitored over the last 5 years, I could honestly say that when the betting line (B2) opens (at approx. 30 mins to post of any race) that there’s about an 85% difference between the amount of money in the betting pools (WIN, PLACE, QUINELLA) from when the pools close.
This of course would also depend on the Class of horses that are running in any given race. It seems that the early money increases by at least an additional 5 to 10% when higher class horses are running.

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by FakeNameChanged

Good morning Nitro. when a horse gets a 20% or 50% drop from the opening odds, and it also becomes the Favorite, how do the colors work? Does it flash Green or Brown before going Red? Thx.

Good afternoon FakeNameChanged!
Believe it or not its not very common for a horse that’s gone “Brown” to suddenly become the Favorite and go “Red”. (EX: An entry may open at 80/1 and bet down to 40/1 or less and go “Brown”. It’s a long way from being the favorite).

Keep in mind that there’s an average of 12 entries in each of all the races in HK. So, the money gets spread out and moves around quite a bit during a typical betting cycle. When monitoring the Win pool (or Place & Quilella) the odds listed don’t “flash” the color. It’s simply continuously highlighted that color as long as the entry maintains the odds drop criteria.

The best way of course is to actually watch the live Tote action for an entire betting cycle.

[Tape Reader]

Originally Posted by Nitro

When viewing the Hong Kong tote information there’s much more information available than what players here in the States are used to seeing. The information is useless until you learn how to put it all into proper perspective. They offer the following related to the tote activities in the Win and Place pools:
A) Two Static M/L’s (as I call them)
A1) Initial Odds Index for each entry – usually available a couple of days before race day.
A2) Race Day Index for each entry – usually available a few hours before the race card begins.

B) Two Dynamic Tote Lines
B1) Early Live Odds – posted when the early pre-race betting begins about an hour before post time.
B2) Opening/Current Live Odds – posted as the betting cycle progresses showing the changing Odds

During a typical betting cycle for any given race when monitoring the HK Tote board:
https://bet.hkjc.com/racing/pages/od...ng=en&dv=local
There are 3 colored indicators (See that info below the odds table from above link) that are posted on the Win & Place odds on those entries that meet the following criteria:
Red = the favorite / Green = An Odds Drop of 20% / Brown = An Odds Drop of 50%
The “Odds Drop” indicators are based on changes from the Opening Live Odds (B2) when the Betting cycle begins.

As an example the following is the information for the #4 entry in the 2nd Race (mentioned in the previous post)

Bet#	   Horse Name		WGT	Trainer	         Jockey	   PP	  B2	  B1	A2	A1
4	PERFECT TO PLAY 	129	C Fownes 	B Shinn    1	  4.8	  12	8.2	5.7
 

Thank you very much for that detailed explanation. That track is on my bucket list.

[TexasDolly]

Originally Posted by Nitro

Hi there TD
Based on the many races that I’ve monitored over the last 5 years, I could honestly say that when the betting line (B2) opens (at approx. 30 mins to post of any race) that there’s about an 85% difference between the amount of money in the betting pools (WIN, PLACE, QUINELLA) from when the pools close.
This of course would also depend on the Class of horses that are running in any given race. It seems that the early money increases by at least an additional 5 to 10% when higher class horses are running.

Hi Nitro,
Thanks for the reply. In terms of the early A1 the drop is way more reasonable and I guess I would have expected it to go down a good bit based on that. So, do you focus more the opening line or the early A1line during your analysis ?
Thank you,

Td

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by TexasDolly

Hi Nitro,
Thanks for the reply. In terms of the early A1 the drop is way more reasonable and I guess I would have expected it to go down a good bit based on that. So, do you focus more the opening line or the early A1line during your analysis ?
Thank you,

Td

Hi TD
This thread started with questions about the occasional big betting by perhaps syndicates looking to score in spite of perhaps driving down the odds (value) of their selected entry by placing very large bets.

I don’t want to give you or anyone else the wrong impression by now implying that just following the odds change one way or another might offer an improved method of making selections. Some might think that because I always refer to using a Tote analysis to identify contenders that it simply means that it’s only analyzing the odds (the Win pool). This couldn’t be further from the truth.

Now while I can’t delineate the inner workings of this analysis, I say confirm that it utilizes the money flow in all the mutual betting pools as well as either the Quinella (for HK betting) or the Exacta pool (for Stateside betting). The entire selection process revolves around determining which entries are getting played in earnest by monitoring the resulting betting patterns. They become the entries of interest for potential play. The final step is to review the odds of those entries to evaluate whether or not they offer enough value for playability. In other words the odds only become a value barometer to determine a play or a pass.
.

[Nitro]

A picture offers a 1000 words:

Originally Posted by Nitro

4-5-20
HK Sha Tin Race #2……1200M C3 (6F)T….2-11-3 W/ 7-9-6……1:15 AM

3-7-6-2– Dutch Win 1% Profit Margin – Passed / $96.50 Quinella & $868.60 Triple Bx ($2,218.40 Quartet Bx) – All of that one!

https://racing.hkjc.com/racing/infor...se=ST&RaceNo=2...... (Notice the Odds on #7 and #6)

TOTE ANALYSIS for Race # 2 –
(Entries w/Computed Values closest to PAR are always of interest and considered the contenders)

POST	4m	10m	15m	 	Pks	Fin
648	728	678	578	1	 	 
217	179	166	165	2	1	4
246	237	262	268	3	3	1
746	730	726	691	4	 	 
812	654	632	594	5	 	 
562	544	523	512	6	6	3
519	485	459	439	7	4	2
728	611	557	447	8	 	 
515	489	468	449	9	5	 
1119	641	633	617	10	 	 
236	188	215	223	11	2	 
	 	 	 	12	 	 
		 	 	13	 
	 	 	 	14	 	 
295	264	268	262	PAR