Odds changes during races WHAT A JOKE

[storyline]

Originally Posted by steveb

when you dismiss like that, you might be forfeiting the chance to learn something that just may help your bottom line.

i have been reading this board a long time and the guy you made that reply to, i would be fairly sure has a good take on things.
and i don't know him from joe blow, i just read and form opinions from what they say.

and by the way it's the second time i have been queried on that aspect.....
english IS my first language.
but you are a yank, and they have prostituted english that badly, that it probably should be called americish now!!!!

Steve, sorry if I offended you, it wasn't my intent.

[BCOURTNEY]

Originally Posted by storyline

I get it!! The horse was a cinch, where's your winning tickets? Where's a post before they ran stating the obvious.

If you want to school me, do it before they run and I'll be happy to engage. PM me anytime you got something live.

Adios

Wasn't intended as a school lesson, I did think the insistence of drug use and various conspiracy theory (which on occasion may be the case?) were much less likely than handicapping errors based on a race performance that was supported by data, I offered to discuss that data if you didn't have access. The thread discussion was centered around the late odds drop on the horse, the stats were shared to show that the CDW teams using even simple models with particular data providers (the origination of the easy to get to comment) had a queue of wagers lurking at the bell. Understand that the comments were not malintended - but a way to explain the large drop in the final odds. I don't think that drugs or conspiracy caused the odds drop, and while everyone is entitled to an opinion, I do believe that more and more teams are sitting on larger wager amounts until 0 MTP.

[Valuist]

Originally Posted by cutchemist42

This sport is going to have to compete directly against sports betting. You really think people will accept not knowing their final price when in sports, they can?

Like what reason is there for keeping up the parimutuel system?

Many people, myself included, got into horse racing because it was the only legal gambling game around. Sports betting will be a body blow to the industry.

[storyline]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

I can't believe you're saying stuff like this.

Post #462 is where I jumped into the discussion and wrote in part the following.

I agree with Track Phantom here, as that was exactly my interpretation proceeding the race.

The same connections win both races.

Race 10
#10 GM Gage at 2 minutes before post is 18-1, goes off @ 11-1

Race 11
#11 Runaway Ghost at 2 minutes before post is 7-1, goes off @ 7/2

The DD combination of 10 / 11 is the lowest paying combination, really.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

I'm making the argument based on two separate events which are linked because of their connections, R10 & R11.

This result makes me suspicious and I stated it from the outset.

How is it that the combination of 10 / 11 is the lowest paying daily double? No one yet has given an reasonable explanation to that occurrence.

Part of what I heard is Bris numbers have him (Runaway Ghost) rated first or second in every category, what about the winner of race 10? Yet not one player posting in this thread chose Runaway Ghost. (please lets not get into a discussion about bris numbers).

The other part I heard is CRW teams are so much smarter than the rest of us and we just have to live with their advantage.

I concede that they use algorithms and wagering efficiencies that most of us dream about, are gifted different rates by track management etc which makes it impossible. It's not a level playing field.

But when it comes to setting the probabilities of win percentages in any one race I feel that I can compete. I know it's my arrogance speaking again.

What I'm largely arguing is the suspicious payouts of the vertical pools, not whether a single horse should be the 1st betting favorite or the 5th betting favorite. We all have our opinions and it's my opinion that anyone or group making horses like this the 7/2 favorite based on a model is in jeopardy of going broke, that is just my opinion agreed or not.

It's the sum of the pieces, it's the connecting of dots so-to-speak of races 10 & 11 that casts doubt and nowhere in this discussion has anyone in your camp made an argument to refute my charge or suspicion.

[jay68802]

Originally Posted by Valuist

Many people, myself included, got into horse racing because it was the only legal gambling game around. Sports betting will be a body blow to the industry.

You can say the same for me. However, sports betting has been around just as long as horse racing, and has been competing with horse racing for the gambling dollar the whole time. Horse racing will be fine, but they still have to address the issues they have. The technology is there to be able to show the win odds in very close to real time, yet the industry chooses not use it. They could also time each horse in each race from when the gate opens, but choose not to. The good news is that while the industry refuses to change, we still get to read threads like this one.

[storyline]

Originally Posted by BCOURTNEY

Wasn't intended as a school lesson, I did think the insistence of drug use and various conspiracy theory (which on occasion may be the case?) were much less likely than handicapping errors based on a race performance that was supported by data, I offered to discuss that data if you didn't have access. The thread discussion was centered around the late odds drop on the horse, the stats were shared to show that the CDW teams using even simple models with particular data providers (the origination of the easy to get to comment) had a queue of wagers lurking at the bell. Understand that the comments were not malintended - but a way to explain the large drop in the final odds. I don't think that drugs or conspiracy caused the odds drop, and while everyone is entitled to an opinion, I do believe that more and more teams are sitting on larger wager amounts until 0 MTP.

I find it extremely difficult to have rewarding handicapping discussions when both parties are unfamiliar with each others level of handicapping and use different data metrics.

I appreciate you reaching out and thank you

[davew]

Originally Posted by storyline

Post #462 is where I jumped into the discussion and wrote in part the following.

I agree with Track Phantom here, as that was exactly my interpretation proceeding the race.

The same connections win both races.

Race 10
#10 GM Gage at 2 minutes before post is 18-1, goes off @ 11-1

Race 11
#11 Runaway Ghost at 2 minutes before post is 7-1, goes off @ 7/2

The DD combination of 10 / 11 is the lowest paying combination, really.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

The same connections are based at Sunland, so could have a home field advantage.

My info has the lowest paying probable with the 5- Peace, with the 5,7,11 getting the most daily double action from the previous race. They finished 1st, 3rd and 9th with final odds ranging from 3.9 to 4.6. The 7 acted up in the starting gate and probably affected his start.

The favorite exacta combo was 11/5

[storyline]

Originally Posted by davew

The same connections are based at Sunland, so could have a home field advantage.

My info has the lowest paying probable with the 5- Peace, with the 5,7,11 getting the most daily double action from the previous race. They finished 1st, 3rd and 9th with final odds ranging from 3.9 to 4.6. The 7 acted up in the starting gate and probably affected his start.

The favorite exacta combo was 11/5

I'm not ignoring your post but I'm waiting for someone to address the (vertical pools).

I'm trying my damndest to keep the discussion focused there as that's where my charge and suspicion lies.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by storyline

I'm not ignoring your post but I'm waiting for someone to address the (vertical pools).

I'm trying my damndest to keep the discussion focused there as that's where my charge and suspicion lies.

You should be focusing on the last half of the double then...I agree, that horse was a head scratcher, unlike the winner of the Sunland Derby

[cj]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

You should be focusing on the last half of the double then...I agree, that horse was a head scratcher, unlike the winner of the Sunland Derby

I still don't think anyone thinks the horse was that much of a head scratcher from a "winning the race" perspective.

But this, to my eye, looked like a recent 5k claim from Navarro that looked reasonable on paper, but won like a future Breeders' Cup Sprint winner. Runaway Ghost improved his speed figure on my scale by seven points while losing probably 8-10 lengths of ground. And this from a former front runner that usually loses very little if any ground.

[Denny]

Just finished reading the last few pages of this lively discussion.

Though good points were made by PA and Jeff P, I'm still on the Track Phantom, Storyline side of the argument. Also agree with comments of CJ and Thaskalos relative to this thread.

Just one man's opinion from what I've read about this from all of you, as I had no interest or involvement with handicapping, or betting on the race in question.

Just let's say i've been following this "game" for a long time and it's what my gut tells me.

I have less and less interest in straight betting any more. If I was going to bet straight from time to time, I'd rather look for a horse who was bet early and has odds going UP before post time!

[JerryBoyle]

For those who have large enough bankrolls, maybe it's time to start hammering your runner(s) at something like 4 or 3 mtp. Take the big guys out of the game altogether. Either they would have liked the same horse, and you'll get them off it, or they hate that horse, presumably your model is better, and them betting other runners will give you a better price. win-win

[PaceAdvantage]

News flash...winner of the 7th at MVR went UP in price from 2-1 to 5-2 during the race...

That's cause the 5 got hammered after the break...a horse that never figured to show speed either (and didn't), so that shoots down the "bet the speed after the break" theory....

Coincidentally, those were my two picks in the race, and it wasn't me doing the hammering...lol

And PS, the winner of the 7th at MVR was a SPEED HORSE that was in front a few strides out of the gate

[storyline]

Okay so lets view the tote beginning with race #10

Final win odds

#1 5-1
#2 2-1
#3 45-1
#4 9/2
#5 16-1
#6 5-1
#7 7/2
#8 25-1
#9 45-1
#10 11-1


Final win odds race 11
#1 7-1
#2 19-1
#3 5-1
#4 6-1
#5 4-1
#6 60-1
#7 9/2
#8 13-1
#9 13-1
#10 14-1
#11 7/2
#12 80-1

Just stop for one minute and review these odds, doesn't anyone come to the conclusion that a 10 / 11 double should be favored?

Here's the question - if the whales are smart enough to make Runaway Ghost the favorite in race 11 why did they leave win money on the table in race 10 by letting the winner go off as the 6th betting choice? Yet supposably I'm to believe they (whales) killed the DD making the combination of 10 / 11 the lowest paying daily double?

You guys can't have it both ways, if the whales made the 10 / 11 DD the lowest paying combination then explain why they left win money on the table in race 10.

This is where your argument falls apart and it's my contention that this was an inside old fashion heist.

To answer Dave the 11/5 x's makes perfect sense when viewed in context with what I've been saying. They enhance the 11's chance of winning and use the most logically horses underneath, follow the money.

Time to get some fresh air

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

You should be focusing on the last half of the double then...I agree, that horse was a head scratcher, unlike the winner of the Sunland Derby

Sorry, I meant to write first half of the double...forgot the Derby was after Gage won.