profit line twinspires

[Half Smoke]

____________


I use twinspires but I haven't followed their PL (profit line) data very much

today, in race 2 at Gulfstream the #1 horse, who was the fave until late and

went off just under 3/1 - and who looked like a real loser to me on paper - I

guess some liked him because he had raced for higher purses in the past was

given a PL line of 18/1 by twinspires



I was very surprised by the difference between this and the odds he went off at

is this common to see a disparity like this____?

and what is your opinion of twinspires or other racebooks profit line____?



thanks


.

[CheckMark]

I am currently doing a testing period of where the average winner comes from in ProfitLine as we speak and trying to get over 200+ races on file so that I have a big sample size

Here is what I have so far:

The average winner rank in 100 race test is 3.26
200 races winners rank is 3.33

So taking the top 3 is a good contenders list for now I guess

I have also done ProfitLine's Top selection testing too:

In 100 races PL win percentage: 28.0% and avg price of $4.74
In 200 races PL win percentage: 29.5% and avg price of $4.90


I will keep the testing going as I want a good sample size so please bare with me

[CheckMark]

I also forgot to mention what tracks I have in the data set:

Oaklawn Park (duh)
Gulfstream Park
Tampa Bay
Golden Gate
Hawthorne
Laurel Park
Santa Anita
Turfway Park
Delta Downs
Fair Grounds

[ranchwest]

Originally Posted by CheckMark

I am currently doing a testing period of where the average winner comes from in ProfitLine as we speak and trying to get over 200+ races on file so that I have a big sample size

Here is what I have so far:

The average winner rank in 100 race test is 3.26
200 races winners rank is 3.33

So taking the top 3 is a good contenders list for now I guess

I have also done ProfitLine's Top selection testing too:

In 100 races PL win percentage: 28.0% and avg price of $4.74
In 200 races PL win percentage: 29.5% and avg price of $4.90


I will keep the testing going as I want a good sample size so please bare with me

Theoretically, a dart board would be better.

[Half Smoke]

Originally Posted by CheckMark

I am currently doing a testing period of where the average winner comes from in ProfitLine as we speak and trying to get over 200+ races on file so that I have a big sample size

Here is what I have so far:

The average winner rank in 100 race test is 3.26
200 races winners rank is 3.33

So taking the top 3 is a good contenders list for now I guess

I have also done ProfitLine's Top selection testing too:

In 100 races PL win percentage: 28.0% and avg price of $4.74
In 200 races PL win percentage: 29.5% and avg price of $4.90


I will keep the testing going as I want a good sample size so please bare with me

thanks very much

so, just to be clear on what you're saying - 29.5% with a $4.90 price - you mean the payback on a $2.00 bet - correct - not odds of 4.90/1

if that's right I get that as if betting $2.00 - in 100 races - the player would win win $85.55 and lose $141 - so his R.O.I. would be about negative 27.7% - correct_____________?

if my figures are correct it seems like it is hardly worth looking at



.

[davew]

I dislike twinspires website and betting platform.


Isn't the ProfitLine supposed to be a true odds line?

When I used it in the past, I bet the horses with odds 50% over ProfitLine. Some races had 2-3 and others had none.

[CheckMark]

Originally Posted by Half Smoke

thanks very much

so, just to be clear on what you're saying - 29.5% with a $4.90 price - you mean the payback on a $2.00 bet - correct - not odds of 4.90/1

if that's right I get that as if betting $2.00 - in 100 races - the player would win win $85.55 and lose $141 - so his R.O.I. would be about negative 27.7% - correct_____________?

if my figures are correct it seems like it is hardly worth looking at



.

The price you said above ($4.90) is what the average payout is for the winner was

[joooooe]

Most folks talk about the percentage of winners...very few folks
talk about Return on Investment.
Good point

[lamboguy]

i am having plenty of trouble with winning any money at all in Gulfstream for the year or so. i have roughly the same amount of winners and am playing the same different-priced horses as i always have.

just to put things into perspective, i used to win year in and year out @Gulfstream before there were simulcasting or rebates.

[wallst69]

Do you still have the data for those tracks?

[fast4522]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

i am having plenty of trouble with winning any money at all in Gulfstream for the year or so. i have roughly the same amount of winners and am playing the same different-priced horses as i always have.

just to put things into perspective, i used to win year in and year out @Gulfstream before there were simulcasting or rebates.

Would you consider the synthetic surface a factor at Gulfstream Park?

[Mdnspecialist]

If profit line odds are 3-1 and odds are at 9-1 or 10-1 and odds are 30-1. I call this a triple overlay. This is when I consider betting the profit line odds horse. If a race is taken off the turf. Ignore the profit lines altogether imo. I don't have any stats on this but it seems profit line odds are better in maiden races.