Bob Baffert

[cj]

Originally Posted by Nitro

I don’t know about anyone else, but it never ceases to amaze me when I see that some will immediately resort to posting overall statistical averages when reviewing results of any kind in order to make a point.

I don’t believe that being successful in this game means playing every race where a particular trainer enters a horse, or any race that a jockey may be riding in, and obviously not every race that a specific horse may be entered.

If I’m not mistaken a better approach would be to be very discerning when not only making choices, but especially when considering the return value of any selection.
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Well, you implied it was easy and bettors were basically ignoring Baffert's success at the windows when nothing could be further from the truth.

you’d think by now players would be taking advantage of his success.

How are we supposed to take advantage of his success? He is clearly overbet in nearly all situations, if not all.

[Track Phantom]

Originally Posted by AskinHaskin

ROFL

Have you looked up the definition of "cheat" lately ???

"...act dishonestly or unfairly in order to gain an advantage... "

Despite all of those microscopic....

Upon first trying the Thoroughbred ranks, Baffert won with 15 of his first 48 TB starters, all more than 40 years ago.

Now again, where is the unfair advantage, and how come you've been too inept to be able to unearth it despite 40+ years of study?

You do realize in his 1999 book that Bob Baffert admitted cheating in his first year of training? It's more likely he has been on the cutting edge of performance enhancing for the entirety of his career. Whatever he does, it's undetectable from modern testing. So, you either have to believe that Baffert is heads and shoulders better than any other trainer in the history of the game or he uses something to gain an edge.

The results, especially in the last decade, are science fiction-like and should bring a person with a modicum of common sense to an obvious conclusion. Those that refuse to draw this conclusion are almost always motivated by something other than the truth.

[Track Phantom]

Here is an interesting stat related to the Kentucky Derby. You might find the data below to be coincidental. I do not.

Some of the drugs the very high percentage trainers use actually slow down the fatigue onset. This is why they quarterhorse to the lead. It's better to be in front when others feel the fatigue pinch at a typical time in the race.

Since 1995 (29 years) there have been 4 wire to wire winners (crossing the finish line first).

The trainers are:
Bob Baffert - 2021 - Medina Spirit
Bob Baffert - 2020 - Authentic
Jason Servis - 2019 - Maximum Security
Bob Baffert - 2004 - War Emblem

There have been just 4 pace pressers (up on the pace sitting second early but not actually setting the pace) to win the Kentucky Derby in that timeframe.

The trainers are:
Bob Baffert - 2018 - Justify
Todd Pletcher - 2017 - Always Dreaming
Doug O'Neill - 2016 - Nyquist
Bob Baffert - 2015 - American Pharoah


Finally, just 3 horses set the pace since 1995 and hung in for the runner-up spot.

The trainers are:
Bob Baffert - 2012 - Bodemeister
Larry Jones - 2007 - Hard Spun
Patrick Bianconne - 2004 - Lion Heart

[castaway01]

Originally Posted by Track Phantom

You do realize in his 1999 book that Bob Baffert admitted cheating in his first year of training? It's more likely he has been on the cutting edge of performance enhancing for the entirety of his career. Whatever he does, it's undetectable from modern testing. So, you either have to believe that Baffert is heads and shoulders better than any other trainer in the history of the game or he uses something to gain an edge.

The results, especially in the last decade, are science fiction-like and should bring a person with a modicum of common sense to an obvious conclusion. Those that refuse to draw this conclusion are almost always motivated by something other than the truth.

Baffert's horses have failed 30 drug tests over the years, and his 2021 Kentucky Derby winner was disqualified for failing a drug test. Whatever he's using has been "detected" plenty of times, which is why some people get so upset about him still piling up wins in 2024 (not to mention the many dead horses he's left in his wake, including the aforementioned 2021 Kentucky Derby winner).

I have to hand it to you though, you almost couldn't have picked a more inaccurate word if you tried.

[Track Phantom]

Originally Posted by castaway01

Baffert's horses have failed 30 drug tests over the years, and his 2021 Kentucky Derby winner was disqualified for failing a drug test. Whatever he's using has been "detected" plenty of times, which is why some people get so upset about him still piling up wins in 2024 (not to mention the many dead horses he's left in his wake, including the aforementioned 2021 Kentucky Derby winner).

I have to hand it to you though, you almost couldn't have picked a more inaccurate word if you tried.

30 positives for whatever doesn't even begin to tell the correct story. Hence, whatever he is "really" using is not detectable. Unless you think he took an edge in those 30-40 cases but was stone cold honest in the other 50,000 races.

[classhandicapper]

When the pace is fast, it's not that unusual for the winner of the duel to put away the other challengers and go on to win and earn his typical speed figure. That's because the fastest/highest quality horse of the group is often still running within a range that's comfortable enough for him. The inferior ones are well past that point and get torched. Even some of the cheaper horses off the pace can get torched trying to keep up with the leaders during the middle fractions.

The ones that are suspicious to me are the horses that get involved in a rapid pace, put away the other speeds and chasers, get a severe late challenge by a quality closer that had a perfect trip, and still have enough left to rebreak and repulse that late challenge.

There are only so many great horses.

[Track Phantom]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

When the pace is fast, it's not that unusual for the winner of the duel to put away the other challengers and go on to win and earn his typical speed figure. That's because the fastest/highest quality horse of the group is often still running within a range that's comfortable enough for him. The inferior ones are well past that point and get torched. Even some of the cheaper horses off the pace can get torched trying to keep up with the leaders during the middle fractions.

The ones that are suspicious to me are the horses that get involved in a rapid pace, put away the other speeds and chasers, get a severe late challenge by a quality closer that had a perfect trip, and still have enough left to rebreak and repulse that late challenge.

There are only so many great horses.

I saw that type of thing about 4 times in my first 25 years of following the game. I saw it 4 times from Baffert horses last week. We've grown numb to it but it was NEVER a thing many years ago.

All of the writing is on the wall. Unfortunately, it takes drug test positives to make it official and that is not going to happen due to the inadequacy of the methods.

Really no sense worrying about it. If those that are in charge of the integrity of the game, other trainers, other owners and basically everyone in and around the game accepts this then it is what it is. For some people, the game is their own personal ATM.

[Profesor]

As good as drugs he uses he is the best juice trainer

[Jeff P]

Bloodhorse.com | by Dick Downey | 03-07-2024
Agreement: CHRB to Order Justify DQ, Pay Ruis $300,000:
https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-rac...y-ruis-300-000

Ruis sued the CHRB in 2020 seeking to have Justify disqualified and Bolt d'Oro declared the winner after a report in the New York Times surfaced revealing Justify tested positive for scopolamine, a prohibited substance, in a post-race sample. Ruis owned and trained Bolt d'Oro. The agreed settlement was made public in filings made in that case.

The suit was precipitated because the CHRB decided not to take action in a closed meeting...

I realize this was posted in its own thread:
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...d.php?t=181359

I'm cross posting it here because:

1. It involves Baffert.

2. The CHRB treated Baffert differently from other trainers.

They voted to sweep Justify's positive test under the rug in a meeting that was closed to the public in violation of California's Brown Act.

The Brown Act or “Open Meeting Law” is officially known as the Ralph M. Brown Act and is found in the California Government Code § 54950 et seq. 1. The Brown Act was enacted in 1953 to guarantee the public’s right to attend and participate in meetings of local legislative bodies, and as a response to growing concerns about local government officials’ practice of holding secret meetings that were not in compliance with advance public notice requirements. The Brown Act is pivotal in making public officials accountable for their actions and in allowing the public to participate in the decision making process.

Imo, Ruis never should have been made to wait this long.


-jp
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[cj]

Originally Posted by Jeff P

Imo, Ruis never should have been made to wait this long.

I'm glad he fought it through to the end. Many would have given up. He was justified to do so, pardon the pun. The CHRB is a disaster at every turn.

[Track Phantom]

Originally Posted by cj

I'm glad he fought it through to the end. Many would have given up. He was justified to do so, pardon the pun. The CHRB is a disaster at every turn.

I know one person who would vehemently disagree with this.

[bisket]

If you listen to Baffert after a positive his biggest complaint is the required time that his horse can’t be injected before a race wasn’t long enough. He followed the rules. but the horse still had the drug in his system. Jeff P talked about how all of Baffert’s are more muscular than others in the race. He trains his runners regularly with injections so he can train them harder. That’s his edge. If a horse is injected regularly with banned race day drugs. They would need a longer period of time then the track requires to get the drug out of his system.

[MJC922]

Originally Posted by bisket

If you listen to Baffert after a positive his biggest complaint is the required time that his horse can’t be injected before a race wasn’t long enough. He followed the rules. but the horse still had the drug in his system. Jeff P talked about how all of Baffert’s are more muscular than others in the race. He trains his runners regularly with injections so he can train them harder. That’s his edge. If a horse is injected regularly with banned race day drugs. They would need a longer period of time then the track requires to get the drug out of his system.

I agree his horses are typically very bulked much like sprinters and yet stay all day besides. It's unusual. I remember watching his horses in the breeder's cup a few years ago just post parade and warm ups and they definitely stick out. He has it figured out. Some don't stand up to it though and fall by the wayside so there's that and the whole tag-teaming thing with multiple entrants over the years, it was unsportsmanlike for someone who is as good as he is at this game. Maybe he's toned that part down a bit lately, I haven't been paying attention. The problem is so many drugs are in the game. I don't like to fault the man for overages because they're mostly all using stuff, let's face it. He has it down to a science is all. Give credit where it's due. On the other hand UK trainers are very often running right over the top of us in the BC anyway so this whole argument that the stuff is needed doesn't hold water. If you really need it you might need to get better. How good Bob is without this stuff is anyone's guess but it's hard to say he isn't the most formidable and accomplished trainer in the US game for decades now.

[Andy Asaro]

Twitter

[wiretowire68]

to keep adding on or dumping on Bob. I have always said, he has doped so many horses that they are so burnt out like junkies in your friendly drug neighbourhoods. They either end up getting top bucks for the breeding shed or they end up as Dr. Ballards. Prime example.. Nadal.