Tonalist

[pele polo]

I think there's a big misconception that Tonalist is a speed horse or wants the front end. The Peter Pan unveiled his versatility. In that race there was no speed. What early speed there was either didn't break or didn't go to the front.

Tonalist obviously has the best chance to upset but he should be flanking Chrome and not in front of him which would mean on the lead.

I expect a couple to surprise by trying to go the front. SI will have company if he runs.

[Robert Fischer]

Moving up in class and distance, Tonalist will probably have to be more efficient than he was in the Peter Pan.

His pulling move worked out to his favor that day, because of the slow pace, the weak rivals, and the correct decision by Rosario to allow Tonalist to advance to the lead.

Aside from the little bit of wasted energy early, Tonalist basically ended up with an easy lead in the Peter Pan.

Social Inclusion and Samraat seem like the obvious pace setters.
California Chrome shouldn't be a huge shock if he were to go to the lead.
General a Rod is kind of a surprise leader type, as well as the possibility of Tonalist.

Anyone else would be hard to predict.

[letswastemoney]

Rosario will be a huge asset to Tonalist. Win or lose, I expect the correct ride.

[burnsy]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

Moving up in class and distance, Tonalist will probably have to be more efficient than he was in the Peter Pan.

His pulling move worked out to his favor that day, because of the slow pace, the weak rivals, and the correct decision by Rosario to allow Tonalist to advance to the lead.

Aside from the little bit of wasted energy early, Tonalist basically ended up with an easy lead in the Peter Pan.

Social Inclusion and Samraat seem like the obvious pace setters.
California Chrome shouldn't be a huge shock if he were to go to the lead.
General a Rod is kind of a surprise leader type, as well as the possibility of Tonalist.

Anyone else would be hard to predict.

I feel like this is a very accurate assumption. Tonalist is moving up after a wet track victory. Weather looks to be dry, very tough call on how he will fare against these. He will get tested for class here...this is no Peter Pan field. All the others named figure to get favorable early positions at this distance. If the pace is moderate the winner is in these 4, I believe. Wicked Strong, Ride on Curlin and Commanding Curve will have to depend on contention early.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by burnsy

I feel like this is a very accurate assumption. Tonalist is moving up after a wet track victory. Weather looks to be dry, very tough call on how he will fare against these. He will get tested for class here...this is no Peter Pan field. All the others named figure to get favorable early positions at this distance. If the pace is moderate the winner is in these 4, I believe. Wicked Strong, Ride on Curlin and Commanding Curve will have to depend on contention early.

If Social Inclusion goes to the Woody Stephens, may have to include Tonalist with the moderate pace group.

[ArlJim78]

Something bothers me about the Peter Pan, everyone ran well. Lifetime tops by Tonalist, Commissioner, Irishyouwell and Matterhorn. Did they all get better on the same day? Commissioner had been kicked around by everyone across three different states (Florida, New Mexico, Arkansas) and then suddenly he bounces back to a new high? It just seems odd, maybe it was the slop or the competition, or the one turn, I'm not sure. But I just don't trust that race as an indicator yet.
I do think Tonalist is a nice horse and could be a factor in the Belmont. He ran second in that big Gulfstream allowance race (a key race if there ever was one).
But he has his work cut out, going three more furlongs with nine more pounds against better horses.

[boys at tosconova]

i would be very surprised if he's not in the top 3. early on. i expect him to be on the lead or take the lead at some point during this race.

i don't think they're going around around the track chrome and sam..w/ medal count leaving and sitting 3rd..not out of the realm, but it's hard not envisioning tonalist up front pushing primed for a big effort.wicked should be up closer as well

[Edward DeVere]

Seems to me California Chrome should just go to the front and improve his position from there.

[Tall One]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

Something bothers me about the Peter Pan, everyone ran well. Lifetime tops by Tonalist, Commissioner, Irishyouwell and Matterhorn. Did they all get better on the same day? Commissioner had been kicked around by everyone across three different states (Florida, New Mexico, Arkansas) and then suddenly he bounces back to a new high? It just seems odd, maybe it was the slop or the competition, or the one turn, I'm not sure. But I just don't trust that race as an indicator yet.
I do think Tonalist is a nice horse and could be a factor in the Belmont. He ran second in that big Gulfstream allowance race (a key race if there ever was one). But he has his work cut out, going three more furlongs with nine more pounds against better horses.

Track looked "heavy" that day from couple days worth of rain, and Tonalist took to it very well. Could that have moved the other runner up as well?

I think we'll hear a lot more from this colt down the road for sure.

[boys at tosconova]

Originally Posted by Tall One

[/B]



Track looked "heavy" that day from couple days worth of rain, and Tonalist took to it very well. Could that have moved the other runner up as well?

I think we'll hear a lot more from this colt down the road for sure.

probable 1, 2 or 3..finish

[Some_One]

Out of the money is my bet, love playing against horses coming off tops on sealed tracks, they rarely ever run close to the big fig again and take a lot of money down with it.

[Thebigguy]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

Something bothers me about the Peter Pan, everyone ran well. Lifetime tops by Tonalist, Commissioner, Irishyouwell and Matterhorn. Did they all get better on the same day? Commissioner had been kicked around by everyone across three different states (Florida, New Mexico, Arkansas) and then suddenly he bounces back to a new high? It just seems odd, maybe it was the slop or the competition, or the one turn, I'm not sure. But I just don't trust that race as an indicator yet.
I do think Tonalist is a nice horse and could be a factor in the Belmont. He ran second in that big Gulfstream allowance race (a key race if there ever was one).
But he has his work cut out, going three more furlongs with nine more pounds against better horses.

Agree about the Peter Pan, dont really want this horse.

[precocity]

Originally Posted by Some_One

Out of the money is my bet, love playing against horses coming off tops on sealed tracks, they rarely ever run close to the big fig again and take a lot of money down with it.

agreed!

[ILovetheInner]

I'll use him. Yes, track moved him forward and the number is likely false, but if Clement had the confidence to run an inexperienced colt in his stakes debut after 2 1/2 months away against far more seasoned horses, he knows what he's got. The Peter Pan was not the toughest spot, but he was supposed to win off his Florida reputation and did so.....easily. His inexperience, as shown in the Peter Pan, is what would concern me most against far more crusty and established runners, but this is a colt I would be surprised not to hear more from at some point. In terms of the Belmont, a very hefty asking but this barn will have him ready. The rest is up and Rosario and fate. Much whining about CC and who he is met and beaten. I think Tonalist will minimally help establish more fully what we are looking at regarding this crop.

[pele polo]

Interestingly enough in the DRF before the Peter Pan was run Clement was quoted as saying before the race that he hoped that it didn't rain and made it seem as if he thought a muddy track would negatively effect his performance considering he been having feet problems and training in bar shoes.